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The San Diego Padres are trailing the Los Angeles Dodgers by just one game in the National League West division. They are looking like playoff contenders at this point of the season, but it might be as Wild Card team, not a division champion. However, there is still time for the Padres to catch their division foes, but they will have to make some smart moves at the MLB trade deadline.
San Diego has time to figure out what their plan of attack is going to be heading into the July 31st deadline. The decisions they have to make are not going to be easy, though. Dylan Cease and Luis Arraez are free agents at the end of the season. Michael King, Jason Adam, and Adrian Morejon will be free agents after next season. Those are five key players for San Diego, and the Padres need to decide whether they are going to win now with them, or accept prospects in a trade for those players.
As mentioned, the Padres are a playoff team. All things considered, San Diego should not be getting rid of any of their key players. They should be buyers at the deadline. The Padres seem to be accepting their role as buyers, as well. They are targeting Red Sox superstar Jarren Duran, which is showing what their plan might be as the trade deadline inches closer.
With the team seeming a little bit more aggressive this season in their approach to winning, the Padres are going to have to give up some prospects. The Major League team, however, should remain untouched.
Below is one player the Padres should not consider trading before July 31st.
Dylan Cease should be untouchable
Cease has been the topic of trade discussions for a long time. However, if San Diego is going to win, it is going to be with Cease being a difference maker on the mound.
The Case for trading Cease falls within the argument that he has not been great this year. The right-hander is 1-4 with a 4.66 ERA over 12 starts. He has thrown 63.2 innings, while allowing opponents to hit .251 off him. Cease has struck out 78 batters, so his swing-and-miss stuff is still there. Since it is the last year of his contract, the Padres could want to unload their ace for prospects, despite being in the playoff picture.
Per Baseball Savant, the 29-year-old is in the 82nd percentile in chase rate, 90th percentile in whiff rate, and 86th percentile in strikeout rate. Additionally, Cease is walking just 7.8 percent of batters, and his fastball velocity has been above average. He still has the stuff to get the best hitters out, but he has to be a little more consistent.
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The problem with his game this season is he is not missing barrels, and he does not keep the ball on the ground. He has only allowed eight home runs, but allowing good hitters to barrel the ball in the air is not a recipe for success. If he can find a way to clean one of those metrics up, Cease will have more success.
The other problem for Cease this year is opponents are batting over .300 off his fastball. Cease throws the pitch the second-most of all his pitches, but it is the most hittable, as well. He is missing up in the zone with the pitch, which is letting hitters see the ball well. With his slider being the top pitch, Cease needs to do a better job tunneling the fastball off the slider, which would mean attacking at the knees more.
One reason the Padres should keep Cease
The simple reason San Diego needs to hold on to Cease is injuries. Michael King just hit the IL with a shoulder injury, and those are always concerning. Yu Darvish is still rehabbing his injury, as well. Now, Darvish is getting closer to returning, but he is still multiple weeks away.
Cease is a pitcher that has been in good health recently. He made 33 starts in each of the last two seasons, and he is on track to hit that number again in 2025. With his health, he is a pitcher the Padres can always count on.
The Padres need Cease to start performing better as their ace. But, he is a player that needs to remain in San Diego.
