The Boston Celtics (19-5) visit the Toronto Raptors (12-11) on Monday. Action tips off at 7:40 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Celtics-Raptors prediction and pick.
Boston has won six of its last seven games and sits in first place in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics are 15-9 against the spread while 61 percent of their games have gone over. Toronto has lost two of its last three games prior to tonight's clash but has won three straight home contests. The Raptors are 13-10 against the spread while 52 percent of their games have gone over the projected score. This will be the first of four meetings between the division rivals. They split last year's series, 2-2.
Here are the Celtics-Raptors NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Celtics-Raptors Odds
Boston Celtics: +1 (-108)
Toronto Raptors: -1 (+112)
Over: 227.5 (-110)
Under: 227.5 (-110)
Why The Celtics Could Cover The Spread
The Celtics have been one of the most dominant teams in recent regular-season memory, specifically on the offensive end of the floor. Boston is first in scoring, 3-point percentage, and offensive efficiency. They've been around league-average defensively, however, as the Celtics rank just 13th in points allowed and 19th in efficiency. Their real vulnerabilities lie on the glass as Boston ranks 20th in rebound differential and 22nd in rebound rate.
Boston possesses one of the best one-two punches in the NBA. The combination of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown is one that is absolutely lethal and not matched by any other team in the league. Tatum (30.7 PPG) and Brown (27 PPG) combine for nearly 60 points per game. They are both incredibly efficient in their scoring as well. Tatum shoots 48 percent from the field, 36 percent from 3-point range, and 87 percent from the free throw line. Brown is right there with him, shooting 51 percent from the field, 36 percent from three, and 84 percent from the line.
Perhaps most impressive, however, is their ability to contribute in all facets of the game. Tatum and Brown are the team's two leading rebounders (8.1 RPG and 7.0 RPG, respectively) and they're a nuisance on defense. They combine for 3.5 STOCKS (steals plus blocks) per game despite consistently being matched up with the opposing teams' best players.
If Boston is going to cover, however, they're going to need to key in on rebounding. Toronto is one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA, while Boston is near the bottom. Tatum and Brown do a formidable job on the glass but Boston is still lacking a dominant big man to control the glass. Look for Al Horford (6.3 RPG) and Grant Williams (4.6 RPG) to play sizable roles especially if they can find success on the glass.
Why The Raptors Could Cover The Spread
Despite dealing with numerous injuries, Toronto remains an upper-echelon team in the Eastern Conference. The Raptors aren't great on offense despite having a few outstanding players. They rank just 20th in scoring and 12th in efficiency. Toronto really shines on defense and on the glass, however. The Raptors rank seventh in both points allowed and defensive efficiency. They are also a top-10 rebounding team, ranking seventh in rebound differential and fourth in rebound rate.
While Toronto's offense hasn't been anything to write home about, it's received a big boost now that star forward Pascal Siakam is back and healthy. Siakam finds himself in the midst of the best individual season of his career. His scoring has been stellar. In 13 games played, Pascal averages 24.2 PPG while shooting 49 percent from the field and 35 percent from three. He's also done a great job not only getting to the free throw line (7.4 free throw attempts per game) but also converting on his opportunities there (76 percent from the free throw line). The biggest part of his game that's taken a step forward this season has been his work on the glass and as a distributor. Siakam leads his team in both rebounding (8.9 RPG) and assists (7.1 APG). Both of those would be career-highs for Siakam – demonstrating his all-around growth.
If the Raptors are going to cover tonight, though, it'll be because of their ability to dominate the glass. Toronto is a top-ten rebounding team despite not having any individual player in the top ten. That's because of how well they rebound as a team. Five players average over 5.5 rebounds per game. They'll be without second-leading rebounder Precious Achiuwa due to injury, however, so look for forward Chris Boucher (6.1 RPG) to take on a bigger role.
Final Celtics-Raptors Prediction & Pick
Boston shouldn't be getting points against anyone, no matter where the game is being played. Toronto notoriously plays them tough, but the Celtics have been far and away the best team in the league this year. Don't overthink it: ride the Celtics.
Final Celtics-Raptors Prediction & Pick: Boston Celtics +1 (-108)
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