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It's fair to say that the 2022-23 season didn't go quite as planned for the Charlotte Hornets. With Miles Bridges unavailable all season after his arrest and LaMelo Ball playing less than half the season, they were not only unable to continue their progression from the season prior, but regressed significantly.
Invariably such a season yields the temptation to make a major change, and the acquisition of Zion Williamson in a move which would need to involve pick 2 has been rumored as one of those potential pivots. But for all Zion's talents, conceding the second pick in the upcoming NBA draft for him would be a mistake. These are three reasons why the Hornets must not trade pick 2 for Zion Williamson.
1. Injury
This is, by far, the biggest reason to show caution around Zion. As advertised prior to entering the
NBA, he is an incredible player when on the floor, and despite having played only 114 games at the top level he's already proven himself to be one of the most uniquely dangerous opponents in the league – and at 22, he's still got plenty of room for improvement.
But those 114 games have come over the course of four years, an average of less than 29 per season. That number drops to 14.5 over the past two years. For all of his talents, Williamson has proven him to be about as injury-prone as anybody in the NBA in his short career, and as we know players don't typically get more durable as they age – particularly somebody of his size.
Hopefully, this whole discussion proves redundant, and Zion manages to get healthy, stay healthy, and have the brilliant career of which he is so clearly capable. But based on what we've seen so far, there should be alarm bells for teams considering making a play for him, particularly one in Charlotte's position, and particularly given what it would take to get him.
2. Cost
The cost of Zion Williamson for the Hornets would of course not be limited to what they have to give up to get him – they also have to do that whole paying him thing. And Zion ain't cheap. His newest contract is worth a casual $194,300,000 over five years, beginning at $33.5 million next season and working its way up to $44.22 in 2027-28. That's some serious cash.
The Hornets have a bit of flexibility entering this offseason, but with Ball likely to demand something close to a max extension next year, that flexibility will be hampered relatively soon. Having multiple contracts of that size invariably handicaps a team to a fairly significant extent, and while plenty of players are worth doing that for and Zion may well be one of them, his injury history means that trading for him on the contract he's just signed has a worst-case scenario which would likely keep the Hornets mired to the bottom of the Eastern Conference for many years to come.
3. Potential of pick 2
With pick two, the Hornets would likely pick either Scoot Henderson or Brandon Miller. Miller is viewed by many as the more likely pick given the Hornets need for a forward, but both of them look like solid foundational pieces. Neither of them has near the hype that Williamson, for example, had prior to entering the league, but they both look capable of making both a relatively immediate impact, and developing into quality NBA players in the future.
In isolation, giving one of them up for a player of Williamson's caliber might not seem so crazy, but when the above factors are also considered it becomes a lot more difficult to justify. If you asked anyone whether they'd rather a healthy Zion Williamson or a healthy Brandon Miller right now, of course the answer would be the former. But a healthy Zion Williamson has so far in his career been elusive, and when combined with the burden of his hefty contract, pick two looks a lot more attractive.
If the Hornets did opt to trade for Williamson, it could theoretically be a franchise altering move. Imagine all goes well – his injury issues abate, he becomes a perennial All-Star, and alongside LaMelo Ball helps to lead the Hornets to the Promised Land. Based on the evidence we've seen to date, however, that seems like an unlikely outcome. On the flip side, if Williamson's injuries continue to pose problems, or if he fails to return as the player he was, the trade will set them back for years. The gap between the floor and the ceiling in a trade for Zion Williamson is enormous, and for a rebuilding team like Charlotte, the risk is simply not worth it.
