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The Denver Nuggets are looking good this season.
They are young, they are talented, they have a center who is taking the league by storm, and they own the best record in the Western Conference after 34 games. You know, the conference that houses the Golden State Warriors.
But are they good enough to make a serious run at the finals as currently constructed?
We have seen the Nuggets do this before. Not this current iteration of the Nuggets, of course, but we have seen Denver teams put together outstanding regular seasons and then fizzle out in the playoffs.
The 2012-13 Nuggets come to mind, as they were a team that won 57 games during the regular season but then bowed out to the Warriors before they were the Warriors in the first round of the postseason.
So, does Denver need to make a preemptive strike before the February trade deadline to avoid a similar fate?
While this Nuggets squad looks too good to be first-round fodder, the answer is yes; Denver does need to add another piece or two before it can legitimately say it can challenge Golden State out West.
Some might argue that those two pieces are already on the roster, as both Will Barton and Isaiah Thomas are expected back at some point in the near future from their respective injuries, but are those guys what the Nuggets need to get over the top?
Thomas, in particular, is an interesting case, as he is coming off of a rather severe hip injury that debilitated him last season and has been giving him issues ever since his final year with the Boston Celtics in 2017.
Will he ever be the same again? And if he isn't the same explosive offensive force he was two years ago, is he so much of a defensive liability that he could actually end up hurting the Nuggets in the long run?
The fact of the matter is that outside of Thomas and Paul Millsap, Denver is very inexperienced, and you would be kidding yourself to say that that type of thing doesn't mean anything in the postseason.
Nikola Jokic is one of the league's best talents, but he has never been to the playoffs. Jamal Murray and Gary Harris are babies. So are Juan Hernangomez and Monte Morris.
In two years, the Nuggets are going to be very, very scary, but 2018-19 may be more of a preview of what's to come than a trip to the promised land.
That is, of course, unless Denver can swing a deal or two to get better.
So, where do the Nuggets need help? One area they can use some assistance in is their perimeter shooting. That's not to say that Denver is a bad three-point shooting team, because it isn't, but it does rank just 12th in the league in that category, which is just sixth in the Western Conference.
If the Nuggets want to have any chance of beating the Warriors in a seven-game series, they have to be able to knock down threes. That's how the Houston Rockets almost upset Golden State last season.
Barton won't really help all that much in that category, as he is a mediocre 34.2 percent career three-point shooter, and while Thomas has shown the ability to hit triples throughout his NBA tenure (36.1 percent lifetime shooter), he is not lethal from beyond the arc, and last year, he shot just 29.3 percent from there.
Interestingly enough, Marc Stein of The New York Times thinks that Cleveland Cavaliers big man Kevin Love might become available at some point this season, but Love has a humongous contract and is a defensive sieve (we have seen Love defend against the Dubs, and it's not good).
Therein lies the problem for Denver. The Nuggets need to add players who can shoot the 3-ball but who can also guard multiple positions, as that is what you need to beat the Warriors. Just look at last year's Rockets with Eric Gordon, Trevor Ariza, and P.J. Tucker, for example.
Now, there will be some players out there who can potentially fill that role for Denver (maybe Otto Porter Jr.?), but it is just going to be difficult for the Nuggets to truly put themselves on the Warriors' level this season.
Honestly, the wisest thing for Denver to do might be just to play out the rest of the year without making any major moves. That way, the Nuggets can hold on to all of their young talents and just wait out the Dubs.
Remember: Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson are both free agents this summer, and there are no guarantees that either will be back (as a matter of fact, it's looking like Durant will be gone). Also, Draymond Green seems to be in decline (or maybe even regression to a mean we didn't know about two years ago), and Stephen Curry is now in his 30s.
The Warriors are not going to last forever, and right now, the Western Conference does not really have a “next up” team other than Denver. The Sacramento Kings look intriguing, but they are still two or three years away from being truly dangerous, and the Oklahoma City Thunder—as good as they are—have some holes.
The West really hinges on Golden State, but, unfortunately for the conference, the Dubs are not going anywhere this season. Make whatever you will of their malaise over the first two-and-a-half months, but the Warriors are still title favorites, and they are more than likely coasting.
Barring injuries, Golden State will probably reach the finals again and win it all, and nothing short of an Anthony Davis trade (which isn't happening) will change that for the Nuggets.
That's why the most prudent thing Denver can do is sit back on its haunches and wait for a decline to happen in the Bay Area.
Then, and only then, should the Nuggets pounce.
