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The Houston Rockets have locked in another key piece of their youth movement. They have reportedly agreed to a five-year, $122 million rookie extension with Jabari Smith Jr. The deal marks a significant financial commitment for a player who, while still oozing potential, has yet to deliver consistently high-level production. It’s a calculated bet from Houston and a sign that the front office sees Smith not just as a complementary role player. They view him as a foundational asset in a young core that has grown faster than just about anyone expected.
The numbers don’t scream star yet. However, the context behind Smith’s season and the flashes he’s shown on both ends of the floor lend credibility to the idea that this extension could eventually look like a bargain.
Rockets Shatter Expectations
No one expected the Rockets to finish the 2024–25 season at 52–30 with the No. 2 seed in the West. Last year’s 41-win campaign offered promise. Still, this leap exceeded all expectations. It was powered by defense, transition offense, and a tough young core.
Cam Whitmore and rookie Reed Sheppard didn’t take major steps forward, but everything else clicked. Houston’s speed, depth, and grit made them one of the league’s most dangerous teams. Of course, skepticism continued to linger heading into the playoffs. The Rockets still struggled in the half-court, ranking bottom 10 in efficiency. It showed as Golden State exposed those flaws in a seven-game first-round exit. For his part, Smith had a quiet series.
That didn’t stop the front office from doubling down, though. Just recently, the Rockets traded for Kevin Durant, re-signed multiple veterans, added Clint Capela and Dorian Finney-Smith, and extended head coach Ime Udoka. They’re not just building. They’re going for it. As such, Houston clearly sees Smith as part of the plan.
Here we will hand out our grade for the $122 million contract extension that was given to Jabari Smith Jr by the Houston Rockets.
The Case for Locking in Smith
Smith’s rookie extension comes on the heels of a roller-coaster third season. After starting the year strong, averaging 11.9 points and 6.5 rebounds across the Rockets’ first 33 games, he suffered a left-hand fracture during a shootaround. The injury kept him sidelined for 22 games and disrupted a campaign that was just starting to show signs of upward momentum.
Upon returning on February 21, Smith’s role was inconsistent. He moved in and out of the starting lineup as the Rockets experimented with different frontcourt configurations. This was especially true with Steven Adams returning and Alperen Şengün taking center stage. Still, Smith managed to finish the season with averages of 12.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 1.1 assists in 57 appearances (39 starts). Modest numbers, sure, but context matters. Smith was working his way back from a significant injury, adjusting to reduced usage. He was still finding his rhythm in Houston’s ever-evolving rotation.
In the playoffs, he averaged 7.4 points per game over seven outings. That didn’t move the needle, but again, Smith is only 21. He has already played a variety of roles on a playoff team. The Rockets are betting on what comes next.
Strengths and Room for Growth
At 6'11” with a smooth shooting stroke and underrated defensive instincts, Smith still fits the mold of the modern stretch-four. He has the tools to guard multiple positions and space the floor. He can also become a high-level pick-and-pop or trail threat in transition.
Where Smith needs to improve is in his consistency, particularly with his shot. He shot just 33.1 percent from beyond the arc last season, down from 35.6 percent in 2023–24. That dip, coupled with a slight regression in overall efficiency, suggests that injuries and role uncertainty took a toll. The Rockets will be looking for a bounce-back campaign in 2025–26. They hope that he can ideally play 70+ games. Of course, Houston wants him to lock into a stable role and continue to stretch the floor while defending at a high level.
Another area for growth is playmaking. Smith averaged just 1.1 assists per game, which underscores his current limitations as a creator. Developing even a basic off-the-dribble game or improved passing vision would go a long way in maximizing his value. It would also unlock new offensive wrinkles for Houston.
Is $122 Million Too Much?
In a vacuum, $122 million over five years for a player coming off an up-and-down year might raise eyebrows. However, the NBA is all about projection. Players like Patrick Williams (four years, $90 million from Chicago) and Saddiq Bey (four years, $80 million from Atlanta) have received hefty deals with similar stat lines. That's based largely on age, upside, and positional scarcity.
Smith’s deal averages out to roughly $24.4 million per season. That's a figure that could look downright reasonable if the salary cap continues to climb and if Smith makes a modest leap. The deal is also fully guaranteed, which reflects how committed Houston is to developing him. That's better than dangling him as a trade chip.
With the Rockets aiming to contend, locking in controllable young talent on long-term deals matters. Smith has shown enough to justify the investment, even if it carries a touch of risk.
Final Grade: B
This isn’t a slam-dunk extension, but it’s a smart, proactive one. Houston is buying low on a young player with upside. The Rockets are banking on his long-term fit alongside Sengun, Whitmore, and now Durant. Smith hasn’t yet proven he’s worth $122 million, nbut he hasn’t disproved it either. If he can stay healthy and rediscover his shooting rhythm, this deal will age well. For now, it’s a solid, strategic move in a franchise that’s suddenly thinking big.
