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After beating the Chicago Bulls, the next Miami Heat Play-In Tournament matchup will be on Friday when the team takes on the Atlanta Hawks. With the Heat looking to make history being the first tenth seed to go win two consecutive road games and make the playoffs, we'll be making our Heat Play-In Tourney predictions.
Atlanta comes into the game with some frustration, losing to the Orlando Magic in the tournament, where star Trae Young was even ejected. As they come into Friday night's contest desperate since it's their last opportunity to make the playoffs. Miami, on the other hand, has an immense amount of momentum after routing the Bulls, 109-90.
The winner of the outing will head into the first round of the playoffs, where the No. 1-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers await them. Despite the upward trajectory, the team knew the rough pathway from the beginning, as even head coach Erik Spoelstra said after the win over Chicago that the message to the team was emphasizing how they're “halfway there.”
“We're only halfway there,” Spoelstra said. “We didn't have the luxury of having the one game, and then you're automatically in. So, guys feel great about this win…this is not something that could just happen overnight. We feel like there's been some good things happening the last several weeks, and this is the first time we've been mostly whole in a while.”
During last night's post-game press conference, Erik Spoelstra was asked about his message to the team.
Spo (smirking): Uh… none of your business? 😂
(YT: Miami Heat) pic.twitter.com/5S9y8IIbep
— Heat Diehards (@HeatDiehards) April 17, 2025
With the team going through a vast number of ups and downs throughout the season, especially the drama with Jimmy Butler, a win Friday could change the narrative. Nevertheless, here are our Heat Play-In Tournament predictions as they take on the Hawks:
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Heat's Tyler Herro continues his exceptional play vs. the Hawks
A big focus ahead of the Heat and Hawks matchup will be around star Tyler Herro, who was impeccable against the Bulls, scoring 38 points on an efficient 13 of 17 from the field, even not missing a shot in the first half. While Herro is in the midst of his best season yet, earning his first All-Star nod, this year has been challenging in opposing defenses, scouting him hard after a scorching start.
It's led to Herro adjusting to defenses and altering his shot chart, leading to a solid finish to the season that continued into Wednesday. While it's expected Atlanta will look to make things difficult for Herro, he'll overcome it as the 25-year-old has produced in “different ways” as said by Spoelstra according to the team's YouTube page.
“It was in a lot of different ways. So it's not just straight, you know, high pick and roll, where it's just going to get worn out or they could trap him,” Spoelstra said. “He's making a lot of those plays in between that are unscripted. But we've also been able to develop that game, which requires everybody seizing those moments and seeing it and developing an IQ to be able to get to that, to be able to take advantage of his skill set, particularly when he's off the ball. You know, that's taking some time, but he's an extremely, highly skilled offensive player.”
While Herro won't get close to 40, don't be shocked if he gets back to 30-point range.
Heat's game plan against the Bulls will continue against the Hawks
A huge aspect of the Heat beating the Bulls was controlling the tenor of the game, as the latter came into Wednesday as the second fastest team in terms of pace. The team right after them at third? It's the Hawks at 103.4 possessions per 48 minutes who are led by Young, where they also get a chunk of points in transition and fastbreaks.
After Chicago swept Miami in the regular season, as they succumbed to their style of play, the Heat played the game to their liking and brought a defensive intensity that was present from start to finish. What resulted was the Bulls' lowest-scoring game of the entire season.
Looking at the regular season-series, Miami and Atlanta each have two games over another with the rubber match being the most important game of either team's season thus far. Expect the Heat's “will defensively and competitoively” to continue into Atlanta as said by Spoelstra.
“The most important thing about today is that we imposed a will defensively and competitively,” Spoelstra said. “On the glass, loose balls, things of that nature, those will remain true as we get to Atlanta, there will be some different specifics, you know, to their team, and we'll just have to get to it. I mean, you know, our guys love to compete, so I don't think they would like two extra days waiting around to get after it.”
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Heat will contain Trae Young
Honing in on the Heat's defense against the Hawks, there's no doubt that the player they'll focus on maintaining is Young, who is known to be a dynamic playmaker. Funny enough, he has struggled relatively this season against Miami, where he's averaged 17 points through four contests, where he scored 11 twice.
Still, he is a tough cover as the team shouldn't rely on past performances, which won't be a problem as one player who'll have the task of guarding him with the right mindset is Davion Mitchell. Known as an Heat X-factor, while it's known they won't hold Young to zero points, it'll be vital to make him take tougher looks.
“Help one another, be in the gaps. We know who the main guy is, try to slow him down,” Mitchell said. “We're not gonna hold him to zero points, but try to slow him down. Make him take tough shots, make him see different looks, different players, and keep going from there.”
The Hawks' injury report ruled out Clint Capela, Jalen Johnson, Larry Nance Jr., and Kobe Bufkin, so while the team still has Dyson Daniels, rookie Zaccharie Risacher, and others, it's Young who's the “head of the snake,” as said by Bam Adebayo.
“Obviously, y'all know Trae Young is the head of the snake, so it'll be really him, and then figure everything else out,” Adebayo said.
While Young won't score 11 like in the two other contests against Miami, it wouldn't be the least bit shocking for Miami's defense to hold the star point guard to just under 20.
Heat will see a returning Nikola Jovic, beating the Hawks to make history
While the Heat will look to Herro and Adebayo to lead them with the other following, the last prediction involves the return of Nikola Jovic, who has been out with a broken hand for a significant amount of time. The last game he played was on Feb. 23 against the Milwaukee Bucks, where, since then, it's been the 21-year-old working his way back.
It has been normal to see Jovic be listed as “out” on the injury report but he had been upgraded to questionable before Wednesday's game. While he was ruled out, the game Friday is the most important game of the season for the team up until this point as he could very well make his return, though limited minutes wouldn't be a shock.
“It is a very positive sign,” Spoelstra said Wednesday of Jovic being upgraded to questionable according to The Miami Herald. “Yesterday, he was able to go through the whole practice, and he did some real-live stuff that you guys saw afterwards. So I think we were responsible all the way through. He was able to do a bunch of player development and conditioning.”
At any rate, it's once again a win-or-go-home situation for Miami as the over-arching prediction will be that they beat the Hawks Friday night, becoming the first tenth seed in play-in tournament history to make the playoffs.
