The NBA's expansion to 32 teams is a near certainty now. All 30 owners voted unanimously in favor of exploring adding two more teams to the league. Said teams would play in Seattle and Las Vegas, and the next step in the process will be a bidding war to take control of these new organizations. Expansion is viewed as “when, not if,” and considering there has never been a longer gap between adding expansion teams in league history, NBA decision makers are going to have to start thinking about the expansion draft and which players they will protect.
The last expansion draft, which featured the Charlotte Bobcats in 2004, saw teams protect a maximum of eight players. Everyone was required to have at least one player vulnerable to the expansion draft, and the Bobcats couldn't pluck more than one player away from any team. The rules may be different this go around, especially with two teams expected to join the league for the 2028-29 season.
A lot will change by the time the expansion draft comes around if it truly is two-plus years out, too. Young and exciting players on rookie contracts will join the league, while stars and role players alike might not be on the same team a couple of years down the road.
If the expansion draft happened today, though, and if the rules were the same as before, which players would each team protect? This is a question on every NBA team's mind and one that could affect roster building for the next couple of seasons. After all, protecting players isn't as simple as choosing the eight most talented hoopers. Contracts, age, injury history, and much more will go into the decision-making process of which players to protect in the expansion draft.
Boston Celtics
Protected players: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Sam Hauser, Payton Pritchard, Hugo Gonzalez, Jordan Walsh, Neemias Queta
Although the Boston Celtics are in second place in the Eastern Conference, their roster was more built to contend next year, which is why last offseason the team prioritized moving on from players who aren't a part of their long-term core. Jayson Tatum should return to MVP form come next year, and the other seven players Boston would protect are all either on long-term deals or cheap contracts.
Brooklyn Nets
Protected players: Michael Porter Jr., Nic Claxton, Egor Demin, Nolan Traore, Ben Saraf, Danny Wolf, Drake Powell, Noah Clowney
The Brooklyn Nets would likely have five players they'd want to protect right off the bat based off the fact that they selected five first-round rookies in the 2025 NBA Draft. They wouldn't want to risk losing any of Egor Demin, Nolan Traore, Ben Saraf, Danny Wolf, or Drake Powell this quickly into their careers. Michael Porter Jr. has increased his stock over this season, too, so even if their rebuild plans include eventually trading him, they wouldn't want to lose him for nothing. As of now, he is the top-scoring threat this pass-heavy offense needs.
New York Knicks
Protected players: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, Mika Bridges, Miles McBride, Pacome Dadiet, Tyler Kolek
The New York Knicks' roster is expensive, and the expansion draft could be one way to get cheaper, but exposing Karl-Anthony Towns or OG Anunoby wouldn't be worth it at this point while the team is contending. Therefore, New York would protect their entire core.
Philadelphia 76ers
Protected players: Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid, VJ Edgecombe, Dominick Barlow, Johni Broome, Justin Edwards, Adem Bona, Jabari Walker
The Philadelphia 76ers have some of the most exciting young stars in the NBA, such as Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe. Those are obvious candidates to be protected, but Philadelphia would have some decisions to make with its aging and injury-prone veterans. Ultimately, the 76ers would decide to keep Joel Embiid and expose Paul George. While he is often sidelined, Embiid won the MVP not long ago, whereas George hasn't been the same player he was earlier in his career since joining the 76ers.
Toronto Raptors
Protected players: Scottie Barnes, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl, Ja'Kobe Walter, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Jamal Shead, Collin Murray-Boyles
The Toronto Raptors' core is pretty mediocre for how pricey it is. An expansion draft would allow the team a chance to potentially move off one of their good but not great players playing under a big contract. Scottie Barnes, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, and Jakob Poeltl would all be protected, but the team might be okay losing Immanuel Quickley.
Chicago Bulls
Protected players: Josh Giddey, Isaac Okoro, Rob Dillingham, Matas Buzelis, Noa Essengue, Jalen Smith, Leonard Miller, Jaden Ivey
The Chicago Bulls have too many guards, so bigs and wings like Matas Buzelis, Isaac Okoro, Jalen Smith, Noa Essengue, and Leonard Miller would receive protection priority. The team would not consider risking players such as Josh Giddey and Jaden Ivey, though.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Protected players: Evan Mobley, Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen, Sam Merrill, Jaylon Tyson, Craig Porter, Max Strus, Keon Ellis
James Harden was traded for to help the Cleveland Cavaliers contend this year, but he likely isn't a part of the team's long-term plans, especially considering their financial situation is far from pretty. If an expansion draft happened this year, the team would likely expose Harden and risk losing him for nothing.
Detroit Pistons
Protected players: Cade Cunningham, Duncan Robinson, Isaiah Stewart, Jalen Duren, Ausar Thompson, Ron Holland, Marcus Sasser, Daniss Jenkins
The Detroit Pistons have stepped up as the top team in the Eastern Conference. They will want to ensure their core stays intact. Jalen Duran joined Cade Cunningham as an All-Star this year, Ausar Thompson is their jack-of-all-trades, and Duncan Robinson is their shooter. Furthermore, Isaiah Stewart is the heart and soul/glue of the team. Daniss Jenkins earns a guarantee here after stepping up impressively with Cunningham sidelined.
Indiana Pacers
Protected players: Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, Ivica Zubac, Obi Toppin, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Jay Huff, Jarac Walker
The Indiana Pacers team that has struggled to win games this year won't be bad for long. The team went to Game 7 in the NBA Finals last year, and their entire core from that run, excluding the departed Myles Turner, is protected here. With Ivica Zubac and a probable high draft pick joining the team, expect the Pacers to return to contention next year.
Milwaukee Bucks
Protected players: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Porter Jr., Ryan Rollins, A.J. Green, Ousmane Dieng, Jericho Sims, Bobby Portis, Myles Turner
Giannis Antetokounmpo's future with the Milwaukee Bucks is unclear. He has been on the brink of a trade multiple times now, and his time in Milwaukee might not last much longer. Even so, the Bucks wouldn't dare expose him to the expansion draft.
Atlanta Hawks
Protected players: Jalen Johnson, Jonathan Kuminga, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Onyeka Okongwu, Corey Kispert, Zaccharie Risacher, Asa Newell, Dyson Daniels
The Atlanta Hawks went in a new direction as a franchise when they traded Trae Young for CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert. What was an underwhelming trade return would look even worse with McCollum not protected here, but as an impending unrestricted free agent, the Hawks couldn't protect him. There have been talks about Jonathan Kuminga receiving a new contract soon.
Charlotte Hornets
Protected players: LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, Kon Knueppel, Brandon Miller, Kiam McNeeley, Ryan Kalbrenner, Moussa Diabate, Sion James
The Charlotte Hornets' future is bright, so keeping their young core intact is paramount. LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, and Miles Bridges all have a role going forward in Charlotte, but it is Kon Knueppel who has really evoked hope for the future during his rookie campaign.
Miami Heat
Protected players: Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, Nikola Jovic, Kasparas Jakucionis, Pelle Larsson, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jacquez
Bam Adebayo is fresh off an 83-point game, so he isn't going anywhere. Tyler Herro is his running mate with the Miami Heat. The rest of the Heat's protections go on players who fit their Heat culture.
Orlando Magic
Protected players: Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Wendell Carter Jr., Anthony Black, Jase Richardson, Tristan Da Silva
Jonathan Isaac has been locked up under a long-term contract for seemingly forever. He is a somewhat easy choice to leave vulnerable to an expansion draft. Although his defense is elite, he has a questionable injury history and has played a super small role this year due to a lack of offense. The Orlando Magic would hope to get off the three years remaining on his contract because he is overpaid for someone scoring 2.6 points per game.
Washington Wizards
Protected players: Trae Young, Alex Sarr, Bilal Coulibaly, Bub Carrington, Kyshawn George, Tre Johnson, Will Riley, Justin Champagnie
The Washington Wizards are clearly trying to take the next step forward, which was evident when they made pre-trade deadline moves for Trae Young and Anthony Davis. They got both of those stars on the cheap, and the plan is that their presence will bring out the best from Washington's core, filled with recent draft picks. However, the team might not protect both of them in an expansion draft scenario. Davis' injury history is worrisome, and he comes at a lofty price tag. The team might be okay not protecting him because they didn't have to give up very much to trade for him. If the team were to protect him, they might have to accept losing one of the young bucks that they are developing.
Denver Nuggets
Protected players: Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, Cam Johnson, DaRon Holmes, Julian Strawther
The Denver Nuggets may struggle to be able to afford to bring back Peyton Watson this offseason after a breakout campaign. That issue could be solved by making Cam Johnson vulnerable to being unprotected in this exercise. Ultimately, the Nuggets decide to protect both here, and they can choose not to retain Johnson a year later when his contract ends.
Of course, Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray will be safe. In their most recent game, Jokic was an assist shy of the fourth 20-20-20 game in NBA history, and Murray went for 53 points. Together, they are arguably the best duo in basketball.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Protected players: Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, Donte DiVincenzo, Joan Beringer, Terrence Shannon Jr., Jaylon Clark, Julius Randle
Rudy Gobert is still an elite defender, but he is getting older, and his offense has always been something that holds the Minnesota Timberwolves back. If the team had to choose between protecting Gobert and Julius Randle, both of whom are on similar contracts, they might as well go with the younger option.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Protected players: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell, Aaron Wiggins, Jared McCain, Thomas Sorber
No team would have harder decisions to make when it comes to an expansion draft than the Oklahoma City Thunder, and that is a credit to their unprecedented roster building. The team underwent a rebuild so impressive that they not only won the NBA Finals last year, but they should be contenders for at least the next half-decade, all while having more depth and future draft capital than any other team. The team has its stars locked up for years and tons of players on bargain contracts, too.
The Thunder have so much depth that they'd have to leave Isaiah Joe, Lu Dort, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jaylin Williams, Kenrich Williams, Alex Caruso, and Nikola Topic all vulnerable. Dort and Hartenstein are starters, Joe is one of the best 3-point shooters in the league, and the same can be said about Caruso's defense.
Both Kenrich and Jaylin Williams perform well whenever they are in the rotation, and Topic is a recent first-rounder with tons of potential who hasn't really had a shot to prove himself yet. Luckily, the Thunder would only lose one of these players, and they have more than enough protected talent and future draft picks to replace whoever they'd lose.
Portland Trail Blazers
Protected players: Deni Avdija, Damian Lillard, Yang Hansen, Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan, Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, Jerami Grant
The Portland Trail Blazers have a good blend of veteran talent and young, up-and-coming talent, and that would be illustrated by who they'd protect from an expansion draft. Damian Lillard will join the fold next season after sitting out a year and pair with Deni Avdija, who has become a star in his own right. There are plenty of recent high draft picks on the roster, too. Jrue Holiday is the big-name player they decided not to protect. Holiday is one of the best defensive guards in history, but he has slipped on that end in recent years, and his contract might not look all that pretty in the near future.
Utah Jazz
Protected players: Jaren Jackson Jr., Lauri Markkanen, Ace Bailey, Keyonte George, Cody Williams, Kyle Filipowski, Isaiah Collier, Walker Kessler
The Utah Jazz implemented a new strategy of roster building this year. They traded for a superstar in Jaren Jackson Jr., but his injury means the team has still been able to tank and chase another high draft pick. The Jazz are going to be competing sooner rather than later, and everyone they protect here is a part of their future.
Golden State Warriors
Protected players: Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Moses Moody, De'Anthony Melton, Brandin Podziemski, Will Richard, Pat Spencer, Gui Santos
The Golden State Warriors had one of the best dynasties the NBA had ever seen, but those days of contention are likely over. Still, it would be wrong to see the team risk losing Stephen Curry or Draymond Green to another team. Jimmy Butler and Kristaps Porzingis are the more likely high-priced veterans the team would be okay losing. Moses Moody's recent gruesome injury makes his future murky, but the Warriors would be smart to protect a young player under contract for years to come because the team will be turning the page on the Curry/Green era soon.
Los Angeles Clippers
Protected players: Darius Garland, Yanic Konan Niederhauser, Isaiah Jackson, Kris Dunn, Cam Christie, Kawhi Leonard, Derrick Jones Jr., Bennedict Mathurin
The Los Angeles Clippers got younger when they traded for guards Bennedict Mathurin and Darius Garland. That backcourt would be a lock to be protected. It is hard to predict just what Los Angeles would do with Kawhi Leonard. He is an NBA legend and one of the best defenders in league history, but he has also struggled with injuries throughout his Clippers tenure. The team's lack of depth leads to them deciding to make sure he wouldn't go anywhere in an expansion draft.
Los Angeles Lakers
Protected players: Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, Deandre Ayton, Dalton Knecht, Adou Thiero, Jake LaRavia, Jarred Vanderbilt, Bronny James
The glaring observation here is that the Los Angeles Lakers wouldn't protect LeBron James if an expansion draft happened this year. That is because The Chosen One is an unrestricted free agent, and, therefore, the team couldn't protect him under the assumed expansion draft rules. They could protect his son, Bronny James, in an effort to lure back the most highly touted prospect-turned all-time NBA great. Regardless, the future of the Lakers is more in the hands of Luka Doncic.
Phoenix Suns
Protected players: Devin Booker, Dillon Brooks, Grayson Allen, Royce O'Neale, Khaman Maluach, Jalen Green, Oso Ighodaro, Collin Gillespie
One of the toughest decisions ahead of a hypothetical expansion draft would be what to do with Jalen Green. The Phoenix Suns guard was the biggest return in the Kevin Durant trade, but his winning ways have long been questioned, and Dillon Brooks has been the more important player for Phoenix. Ultimately, the Suns would be smart to protect a great offensive talent who is still just 24 years old.
Sacramento Kings
Protected players: Domantas Sabonis, Keegan Murray, De'Andre Hunter, Malik Monk, Nique Clifford, Maxime Reynaud, Devin Carter, Zach LaVine
The Sacramento Kings are in a bad position. They are pretty bad right now, but their future isn't nearly as bright as many of the other bottom dwellers in the NBA. They wouldn't risk losing Domantas Sabonis, but both Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan would receive consideration to leave unprotected.
Dallas Mavericks
Protected players: Cooper Flagg, Kyrie Irving, P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively, Max Christie, Caleb Martin, Naji Marshall
Of course, the Luka Doncic trade decision still looms large over the Dallas Mavericks, but the team is moving on from that mistake quite well, and they truly have some potential going forward. Cooper Flagg will remain the franchise player in Dallas going forward, but the return of Kyrie Irving will help the team in a big way. Dallas has plenty of interior size and defensive-minded wings, too. The big name they put at risk of poaching here is Klay Thompson, but the all-time great 3-point shooter just hasn't been the same player he was during his Splash Bros days in recent years.
Houston Rockets
Protected players: Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, Dorian Finney-Smith, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason, Amen Thompson, Fred VanVleet
After making a huge trade for Kevin Durant in the offseason, he won't be leaving the Houston Rockets. The team has tons of depth, though, so they would have some tough decisions to make with who to protect and who to leave vulnerable. Here, they protect Fred VanVleet and risk losing Steven Adams. Although VanVleet has missed all of this season with a torn ACL, his 3-point shooting could help in a big way come next season. Adams has injury problems in his own right, and Houston has enough center depth with Alperen Sengun and Clint Capela.
Memphis Grizzlies
Protected players: Ja Morant, Santi Aldama, Ty Jerome, Zach Edey, Cedric Coward, Cam Spencer, Walter Clayton, Jaylen Wells
By trading Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane within the last year, the Memphis Grizzlies are starting to look a whole lot different. Ja Morant has often been involved in trade rumors, too. The team may just move forward with him as their franchise player, but regardless, they wouldn't leave him vulnerable to an expansion draft and risk losing him for nothing.
New Orleans Pelicans
Protected players: Zion Williamson, Derik Queen, Jeremiah Fears, Trey Murphy, Herb Jones, Dejounte Murray, Yves Missi, Jordan Hawkins
Come an expansion draft, the New Orleans Pelicans would likely choose between protecting Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole. Murray has played well since returning from injury, so the team would rather he stick around.
San Antonio Spurs
Protected players: Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, Carter Bryant, Julian Champagnie, Luke Kornet, De'Aaron Fox
The San Antonio Spurs are loaded, so an expansion team would almost certainly target one of the players they end up not protecting. Obviously, Victor Wembanyama would be safe, and Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, and Devin Vassell wouldn't go anywhere, either. While the Spurs do have a lot of guards, and De'Aaron Fox isn't necessarily on a cheap contract, the team has demonstrated that they want to win with this core, so they'd protect Fox, too. Keldon Johnson is the most likely player in the core who would be expendable, as his role has decreased in recent years.
