Germany has marched into the EuroBasket 2025 quarterfinals with supreme confidence. An undefeated 6-0 run has made them look like the most balanced and well-drilled team in the tournament, led by veterans like Dennis Schröder and rising stars like Franz Wagner. Wagner, in particular, has quietly become the X-factor in Germany’s perfect run so far.

At just 24 years old, he has demonstrated poise, efficiency, and the ability to step up when Germany needs a go-to scorer on the wing. Yet the challenge now is unlike anything Germany has faced in this tournament. Standing in their way is Luka Dončić and Slovenia, a battle-tested team with arguably the best player in the world right now.

While Germany has dominated so far, Slovenia represents a different level of threat. Dončić alone can dismantle defenses with his scoring and playmaking, but Slovenia also plays with the kind of cohesion that makes them hard to overwhelm. For Wagner, this quarterfinal is about more than stats. It’s about rising to the occasion, delivering a star-level performance, and proving he belongs among Europe’s elite in the most pressurized environment. With Slovenia favored in the matchup because of Luka’s brilliance, Germany will need Wagner at his absolute best to survive. Here are three bold predictions for Wagner in this quarterfinal battle.

Franz Wagner drops 30 points on Slovenia’s defense

Through six games, Franz Wagner has been the picture of efficiency. Shooting over 52% from the field and averaging more than 20 points per game, he has thrived in the flow of Germany’s offense. What stands out most is his ability to score in multiple ways. His length and finishing allow him to dominate inside the arc, where he is converting a stellar 60% of his two-point attempts. Meanwhile, his confidence from deep has remained steady enough to stretch defenses. Add to that his near 85% accuracy from the free-throw line, and Wagner has been one of the most reliable scorers in the tournament.

But against Slovenia, efficiency alone won’t be enough. Dončić and company will force Germany to match firepower with firepower. Wagner’s matchup against Slovenia’s wings favors him, especially if he can use his size and strength to punish mismatches. Slovenia will likely focus much of its defensive attention on containing Dennis Schröder’s pick-and-roll game, which could leave Wagner with opportunities to isolate or attack secondary defenders.

The bold prediction here is simple: Wagner takes his game to the next level and explodes for 30 points. In a high-stakes quarterfinal where every possession matters, Germany will need a performance from Wagner that goes beyond what he has delivered so far. If he asserts himself aggressively from the opening tip, getting downhill, drawing fouls, and punishing Slovenia’s rotations, he can become the game’s leading scorer. Whether Germany wins or not may hinge on whether Wagner is willing to shoulder that kind of offensive load.

Wagner becomes Germany’s defensive answer to Luka Dončić

Few players in the world can claim to slow down Dončić. He is the ultimate problem-solver, capable of dissecting defenses with his scoring, passing, and relentless will. Yet if there is one player on Germany’s roster who can at least make Dončić work for everything, it’s Wagner. With his 6-foot-10 frame, lateral quickness, and instincts, Wagner has the tools to take on the challenge of defending Luka for extended stretches.

The bold prediction here is that Germany leans heavily on Wagner as their primary defender on Dončić, and that Wagner makes an impact. This doesn’t mean Luka won’t get his numbers; he almost certainly will. But Wagner’s length can contest Luka’s step-backs, while his mobility allows him to stay attached when Dončić tries to drive and collapse the paint. Perhaps most importantly, Wagner has the discipline to avoid unnecessary fouls, something essential when guarding a player who lives at the free-throw line.

If Wagner can limit Dončić to a degree, making him shoot in the low 40s from the field or forcing turnovers, it could swing the game. Germany’s defensive scheme will likely include plenty of help, but Wagner will be the anchor of those efforts. Even if Slovenia ultimately wins, this could be Wagner’s defensive coming-out party on the international stage. A bold but realistic outcome is Wagner finishing the game with two steals, a block, and a handful of key stops that keep Germany in contention.

Article Continues Below

Wagner delivers a clutch 4th-quarter performance

Big games are defined not only by the numbers on the stat sheet but also by who steps up when the pressure is suffocating. For all of Germany’s balance and depth, the final minutes of a knockout game often come down to which star players are willing to take control. Wagner, despite his youth, has already shown signs that he thrives under pressure, both in the NBA and on the international stage.

The bold prediction here is that Wagner will own the fourth quarter against Slovenia. Whether Germany is trailing and needs a spark or is in a tight battle that requires composure, Wagner’s skill set makes him the ideal late-game weapon. His ability to create his own shot, his free-throw consistency, and his size advantage all point to him being the player Germany should trust when possessions matter most.

Picture a scenario where Slovenia leads by single digits entering the final five minutes. Dončić is doing his usual magic, but Wagner answers with back-to-back baskets, perhaps a pull-up three, followed by a strong drive to the rim. The confidence from those moments could fuel him to keep attacking, and it’s not hard to imagine Wagner finishing with double-digit points in the final quarter alone. Even if Slovenia pulls out the victory, Wagner’s clutch performance would mark a turning point in his international career, proving that he can carry Germany not just through group play but into the highest levels of elimination basketball.

The defining test for Germany

Germany has been flawless so far, but the true measure of greatness comes in the knockout rounds. Against Slovenia, they face not only one of the best teams in the tournament but one of the best players in the world. For Wagner, this game is both a challenge and an opportunity; a chance to elevate himself from rising star to centerpiece of Germany’s future on the international stage.

While Slovenia is favored because of Dončić’s unmatched brilliance, Wagner’s boldest performance yet could tilt the balance. A 30-point scoring outburst, elite defense against Luka, and a clutch fourth-quarter takeover are ambitious predictions, but they aren’t unrealistic. Wagner has already shown glimpses of all three during EuroBasket 2025. If he delivers them all on the same night, Germany could shock the tournament and keep their undefeated dream alive.

Even if Slovenia ultimately prevails, Wagner’s performance in this quarterfinal could redefine how he is viewed in the global basketball conversation. For Germany, win or lose, this is Franz Wagner’s moment to prove he belongs on the biggest stage.