The 2025-26 season is heading south rather quickly for the Philadelphia 76ers. They once had high hopes that they could enter the 2026 NBA playoffs at full strength, but at this point, their qualification for the postseason is nowhere near guaranteed. With Joel Embiid out due to persistent oblique troubles, Tyrese Maxey suffering a right pinky tendon injury, and Paul George missing due to suspension, the 76ers have been in freefall in the East standings and are now in ninth place with a 39-34 record.
Considering how Maxey will be out for a while, George will be out for another week, and there are no guarantees that Embiid will be healthy between now until the end of the regular season, there is a chance that the 76ers fall to the 10th spot — making it necessary for them to win two games just to earn the right to face the Detroit Pistons in the first round.
Thankfully for them, they have an 8.5-game cushion over the 11th-placed Milwaukee Bucks, so their place in the play-in tournament is looking safe. But the 76ers won't ever be content with just being a play-in team and then bowing out of contention after that. Those are the standards for the Chicago Bulls, not the Embiid and Maxey-led 76ers.
But at this point, the 76ers are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and there are hardly any ideal outcomes left for this team. Perhaps this is karma from the Jared McCain trade, or perhaps this is simply the risk of building a veteran-reliant roster whose stars are getting older and getting more and more injury-prone.
Nonetheless, this is the best-case scenario that the 76ers can still hope for.
76ers' dream scenario: somehow earning sixth seed, outright playoff berth
This is the ultimate dream scenario for the 76ers — that somehow, despite all their injury problems and poor play over the past few weeks, they can still make it to the playoffs in an outright playoff spot. It's not like this is out of the realm of possibility; they are only 1.5 games out of the sixth spot in the East, which is currently owned by the Orlando Magic.
This, of course, is not very realistic. Maxey is still out for at least one and a half weeks. Embiid is day-to-day with an oblique problem. George, once he returns next week, won't have played for nearly two months. Even Kelly Oubre Jr. is out for multiple weeks.
The 76ers' unforgiving injury list makes this as close to impossible as it gets. This is why there's not much use in dwelling on this hypothetical. The teams around the 76ers are in much better positions; Paolo Banchero has been very good recently for the Magic, the Miami Heat have been playing brilliant basketball as of late, and the Hawks are in the middle of a 10-game winning streak.
The sixth seed appears to be all but lost for Philly, but hope still exists for them somewhere.
76ers' realistic dream scenario: Get healthy, earn the eighth seed via the play-in
The 76ers need to be healthy, first and foremost. But it just goes without saying anyway that they would be one of the easiest play-in outs there is if they cannot get all their key guys back. Considering their lengthy absences, the 76ers might be doomed to a spot in the 9/10 play-in tournament matchup, requiring them to win two games just to make it to the playoffs.
However, this is looking like their realistic pathway to making the playoffs. And for what it's worth, the 76ers would much rather face the Detroit Pistons in the first round than the Boston Celtics, a team that's looking like the favorite to come out of the East what with Jayson Tatum having returned from injury.
Nonetheless, they have to win first before even considering the Pistons matchup. A battle against the Charlotte Hornets or any of the Toronto Raptors/Magic/Heat/Hawks will be difficult. But for a 76ers team that should have Maxey, Embiid, and George by then, these are very winnable matchups.
The 76ers have swept the season series against the Hornets; all four of their regular season matchups came before the 20th of December (before the Hornets hit their stride), so things have definitely changed for both teams. But the blueprint is there for Philly to overcome the Hornets offense that's filled with shooting and flair.
The 76ers also won their season series against the Magic, so that makes them the most ideal matchup for the battle for the eighth seed if Philly does indeed defeat Charlotte. The Heat are always tough to match up against, especially in a single-game elimination format, while Philly has not won a single one of their four games against Atlanta this season.
