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Hello friends, and welcome to the final January edition of Bracketology here at ClutchPoints! Today, I'd like to shift the focus away from the Power 5 conferences and instead hold a magnifying glass up to some of the many mid-majors who may end up making some noise come March. And before you scoff at my assertion that one of the teams I'm about to discuss could make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, I'd like to remind you that in the last five NCAA Tournaments alone:
-All 16 seeds have won at least one NCAA Tournament game
-Only the 13, 14, and 16 seeds have failed to make at least one Elite Eight
-15 different low-major/mid-major conferences have scored at least one upset over a Power 5 conference opponent — Atlantic 10, Atlantic Sun, Big West, Conference USA, Horizon League, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, NEC, Ohio Valley, SoCon, Southland, Summit League, Sun Belt, WAC
So who are some of the teams (and conferences) to watch out for this year? I've got that answer for ya! Here are eight matchups to keep an eye on this week between teams at or near the top of their respective conferences that could end up busting brackets when the NCAA Tournament begins.
Southland – McNeese at Texas A&M-CC
McNeese was a trendy 12 over 5 pick last year, but the Gonzaga Bulldogs — the O.G. mid-major bracket buster — was having none of it. But Will Wade's squad reloaded — which was necessary given the loss of 2024 Southland Player of the Year Shahada Wells — and they've picked up right where they left off in Southland play after going 17-1 against conference foes last year. A road test at Texas A&M-CC, the Southland's highest scoring team, will be the Cowboys' toughest in-conference test of the season thus far.
Atlantic 10 – VCU at Saint Louis
My preseason pick to win the Atlantic 10 (Saint Louis) hosts the current leader in the Atlantic 10 (VCU) in a game that could result in a change atop what has been a topsy-turvy conference all year long. It genuinely feels like there are ten different teams that could end up cutting down the nets at Capital One Arena and earning the conference's automatic bid.
SoCon – Samford at Furman
Once upon a time Stephen Curry and the Davidson Wildcats emerged from the SoCon and made the Elite Eight, but in the 15 NCAA Tournaments since then, only pair of SoCon champions have won tournament games, though numerous others have come damn close to pulling off upsets. Although Samford and Furman currently boast the best overall records in the conference, a stealth pick to represent the SoCon in the NCAA Tournament would be UNC Greensboro, who tops the league in both defensive rating and three-point percentage.
C-USA – New Mexico State at Middle Tennessee
Conference USA has plenty to boast about come March. Not only did FAU make the Final Four in their final season in the conference in 2023, but New Mexico State can claim to be the last team to have defeated Dan Hurley and the UConn Huskies in the NCAA Tournament. But the Aggies are looking up at Middle Tennessee, UTEP and Jacksonville State for the time being.
Ivy League – Yale at Princeton
The Ivy League has a two-year streak of pulling off opening round upsets in the NCAA Tournament thanks to these two teams. Yale upset Auburn as a 13-seed last March, and two years ago, Princeton stunned the No. 2 seed Arizona Wildcats in Round 1. Whether it's the Bulldogs or Tigers who represent the Ivy League in this year's NCAA Tournament, you best believe they'll be a trendy opening round upset pick.
WAC – Utah Valley at Grand Canyon
Bryce Drew has led Grand Canyon to three of the last four NCAA Tournament, and the Antelopes upset Saint Mary's in a 12-5 matchup last year. But despite the fact that GCU returned reigning WAC Player of the Year Tyon Grant-Foster and has a roster loaded with seniors, it's the Utah Valley Wolverines who are a perfect 7-0 in conference play and are looking to make their first NCAA Tournament appearance.
MWC – New Mexico at Utah State
San Diego State's NCAA Tournament success has been well-documented, but if you're looking for a Mountain West team to make a deep run in March in 2025, you might not need to look beyond Saturday's matchup between the New Mexico Lobos and the Utah State Aggies. These two teams are a combined 35-6 this season with wins over the likes of San Diego State (x2), UCLA, VCU, Iowa, and Saint Mary's.
WCC – Gonzaga at Saint Mary’s
Actually, this game is slightly overqualified to be discussed here. More on this game in a bit. For now, let's get to the latest Bracketology projections.
Bracketology Bracket
Bracketology Breakdown
Top Seeds: Auburn Tigers (South Region), Duke Blue Devils (East Region), Alabama Crimson Tide (Midwest Region), Iowa State Cyclones (West Region)
Multi-Bid Leagues: ACC (5), Big 12 (7), Big East (5), Big Ten (9), Mountain West (3), SEC (13), WCC (2)
Bracketology Bubble Watch
Last Four Byes: New Mexico, Vanderbilt, Texas, Pittsburgh
Last Four In: San Diego State, Ohio State, North Carolina, Xavier
First Four Out: Dayton, UCF, Indiana, SMU
Article Continues Below
Next Four Out: Cincinnati, Wake Forest, Nebraska, BYU
Five Most Intriguing (Non Mid-Major) Games of the Week
Monday January 27th (ESPN, 10:30 PM ET) – Iowa State at Arizona
Wednesday January 29th (SEC Network, 9 PM ET) – Alabama at Mississippi State
Saturday February 1st (ESPN, Noon ET) – Florida at Tennessee
Saturday February 1st (ESPN, 6:30 PM ET) – North Carolina at Duke
Saturday February 1st (FOX, 8 PM ET) – UConn at Marquette
And One!
Though Gonzaga/St. Mary's may not have the juice that rivalry games like Duke/North Carolina or Kentucky/Louisville, it feels like it's time we put a little more respect on this rivalry's name, especially since year by year it appears that the Gaels are closing the gap on the bully of the WCC. These two schools have split their last eight meetings, and Saint Mary's currently has bragging rights after winning two out of three matchups last year.
Gonzaga is in desperate need of a bounce back, having lost two conference games already this year and they haven't even played the Gaels. But I think the tide is officially turning in this rivalry.
I don't know what the line is going to be yet, but give me Saint Mary's to win AND cover on Saturday night. That's right, even if Saint Mary's is a 47 point favorite, give me the Gaels.
Past And One! Predictions
11/24/24 – I'll eat way too much food on Thanksgiving (CORRECT)
12/2/24 – The Big 12 will win the Big East-Big 12 Battle (CORRECT) and the SEC will win the ACC-SEC Challenge (CORRECT)
12/12/24 – At least nine of those 12 SEC teams in the December 12th Bracketology field will be victorious over the weekend (CORRECT)
12/16/24 – Notre Dame, Penn State, Texas and Ohio State will win in the opening round of the College Football Playoff (CORRECT)
12/23/24 – Penn State, Texas, Oregon and Notre Dame will win in the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff (INCORRECT)
1/2/25 – Florida and Tennessee will both secure SEC wins over the weekend over Kentucky and Arkansas respectively (INCORRECT)
1/6/25 – By mid-February, Arizona will be considered at least a 9-seed by not only myself, but by my fellow Bracketologists as well (TBD)
1/13/25 – Tom Izzo and the Michigan State Spartans will win their first Big Ten regular season title since 2020 (TBD)
1/20/25 – The Notre Dame Basketball Team will have a better week than the Ohio State Basketball Team (INCORRECT)
