After a crushing loss in the national championship game, Houston basketball came into the 2025-26 season as one of the favorites to get back to the Final Four and secure Kelvin Sampson's first championship. In addition to returning starters Milos Uzan, Emanuel Sharp and Joseph Tugler, the Cougars added a pair of five-star recruits to their starting lineup in Kingston Flemings and Chris Cenac Jr.
Houston got off to a blazing start, racing out to a 23-2 record and the top spot in the Big 12, with wins over Texas Tech, BYU, Arkansas and Auburn in conference play. However, the Cougars have fallen on some harder times of late, losing three games in a row for the first time since 2017.
The losing streak started with a late collapse on the road against Iowa State, a game where Houston led for most of the second half before its offense stalled out late. The Cougars then took a home loss against Arizona, which made it two home losses since joining the Big 12. On Monday night, Houston didn't have any juice offensively on the road against Kansas in a 69-56 loss.
While three losses in a row looks troubling on the surface, all three defeats for Sampson and company came against top-15 teams, two of them on the road. Is it time to hit the panic button just yet?
Houston needs Joseph Tugler on the floor to succeed
In somewhat of a surprising twist to this season, Tugler has become the most important player for Houston. the defensive ace is one of the best defenders in the country, able to guard just about anybody on the court and take away advantages that offenses create just with his presence inside.
Tugler creates a ton of impact plays on defense as well as his possession-by-possession excellence. He averages 2.8 stocks per game despite playing just over 22 minutes a night, and EvanMiya has him rated as by far the best overall defender on the team.
But therein lies the problem. Tugler is only on the floor for just over 22 minutes per game because he is constantly in foul trouble. A player as physical and active as Tugler will naturally pick up fouls here and there, but Houston gets considerably worse when he is on the bench. In the loss to Arizona, for example, Tugler played just 18 minutes and picked up four fouls. However, Houston outscored Arizona by one point when he was on the floor and was outscored by eight when he sat.
If you look at Houston's best lineups this season, Tugler and sharpshooter Emanuel Sharp are the common denominators. The two of them form the Cougars' most efficient two-man lineup and are present in their best three-man, four-man and five-man combinations. If Houston is going to make it back to the Final Four, Tugler is going to have to be on the court more often than he is right now.
Where does the easy offense come from?
Sampson's elite teams at Houston are usually known for their defense, rebounding and overall hustle and intensity. Some of them struggle offensively, a problem that has doomed them in the NCAA Tournament in many of their losses.
This team is no different, even with Kingston Flemings being arguably the best offensive player Sampson has had during his time at Houston. The future lottery pick can make tough shots from anywhere and gets to his spots with ease, giving Houston a higher ceiling on offense than it has had in the past.
However, the meat and potatoes of the offense aren't quite there for the Cougars like it has been in the past. As some of the best defenses in the Big 12 have keyed on Flemings more and more and he has had some off shooting nights, the offense has dried up.
Last season, when Houston needed a basket or a release valve from the pressure on the perimeter, it could just dump the ball down into J'Wan Roberts in the post, and he could get a bucket or get to the free-throw line. Tugler isn't that kind of player and Cenac is still very raw as a scorer, which puts a lot of burden on the Cougars' guards to shoot the ball well.
That lack of an “easy button” on offense is the exact kind of thing that could come back to haunt Houston in the NCAA Tournament, and it's a big cause for concern as the regular season starts to wind down.
Panic meter: 6 out of 10
Despite the recent losing streak, Houston is still one of the best teams in the country. It should have beaten Iowa State and had every chance to take down Arizona deep into the second half on Saturday.
In the end, March Madness is usually about guard play, and Houston has plenty of that with Flemings, Sharp and Uzan. In addition, its defense and energy gives it a high floor against inferior teams, making a Sweet 16 trip very likely.
When Houston gets into the second weekend, however, those problems on the offensive end will become more glaring against some of the better defenses in college basketball. Opposing front courts will be more talented and will have players that can really give Tugler its and get him in foul trouble.
There's no reason to panic about Houston as an elite team at this point, but in a one game sample size in March against the best teams in the country, there are a lot of reasons for concern.
