When Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn both confirmed they would be returning to Purdue for the 2025-2026 college basketball season, many immediately pegged them as March Madness title favorites. After a strong start, the Boilermakers have hit a wall in January, ending the month on a three-game skid.
Through 21 regular season games, Purdue sits at 17-4 and is ranked No. 12 in the country, though it is certain to drop before its next game against Maryland. Since a 69-64 win over USC on Jan. 17, the Boilermakers have dropped three consecutive games against UCLA, Illinois and Indiana.
The losses drop Purdue's record to just 7-3 in the Big Ten, fifth in the conference. They remain in contention due to a down year for the conference overall, but there is a wide gap between the top four teams — Michigan, Nebraska, Michigan State and Illinois — and the rest of the field.
Purdue, at this point in the college basketball season, is not in the top tier of the Big Ten.
As bad as Purdue's losing streak is, its rough patch extends beyond its last three games. Matt Painter's team has been out of sync for almost the entire month, a concerning development for a veteran team with most of its core in its third year together.
With 10 games remaining in the 2025-2026 college basketball season, Purdue is still on track to beat its 24-12 record a year ago. However, they are just 2-3 in their first five games against ranked opponents and still have matchups against Nebraska, Michigan and Michigan State before the Big Ten Tournament begins.
Even the best teams suffer through downswings, but Purdue has looked off all year. Despite entering the season as one of the most experienced teams in the country, fans have been waiting for them to find a second gear, which just does not seem to be in the cards before March Madness begins.
Purdue will go as far as Braden Smith takes it
Purdue has struggled more than fans are used to, but none of its woes rest on Braden Smith's shoulders. The senior has been the lone bright spot for Painter amid a rough month, as he begins to hit his stride at the right point in the season.
Smith's scoring numbers are down a touch from his breakout junior season, but his assist numbers have increased, while his efficiency has skyrocketed across the board. He began the year as the best point guard in college basketball and has delivered on all expectations while putting Purdue on his back.
Unfortunately, Smith's play has not been contagious, as his veteran teammates continue to struggle. Still, the little production Purdue has gotten from Trey Kaufman-Renn and Fletcher Loyer this season has come from Smith. Nobody in the country runs the pick-and-roll better.
Smith has been so dominant that his performances have overshadowed Purdue's overall struggles. The fact that the Boilermakers remain even remotely within the national title conversation is solely his doing.
Inconsistency has plagued Smith at times, like the rest of the team, but he has been on a heater since the New Year, averaging 20.0 points and 7.8 assists while shooting 57 percent from the floor and 47 percent from three in his last seven games. Any success Purdue has down the stretch will be because of Smith, who has March Madness star written all over him.
Purdue isn't getting enough from Trey Kaufman-Renn
Braden Smith has been Purdue's engine, but no one else has done anything to keep the team in neutral. Trey Kaufman-Renn, Fletcher Loyer and C.J. Cox have shown flashes at various points during the season, with none being consistent enough for the Boilermakers to become legitimate March Madness contenders.
Kaufman-Renn, who averaged 20.1 points and 6.5 rebounds in 2024-2025, has been the biggest disappointment. The senior has taken a shockingly stark step back in 2025-2026, averaging just 13.1 points and 8.5 rebounds through 21 games.
Kaufman-Renn's efficiency in the paint has remained the same, but his shot attempts have decreased from 13.6 as a junior to 10.1 in his senior campaign, while his jump shot has fallen off a cliff. His midrange game is almost non-existent, while the three-point shooting many expected to improve in year four has been an overwhelming disappointment.
Kaufman-Renn is far from the only disappointment from Purdue's 2025-2026 basketball season. Loyer's scoring and shooting numbers have also regressed, while Cox has not been nearly as consistent as some had hoped he would be in year two.
But of its supporting cast, Purdue had the most expectations for Kaufman-Renn, who was the team's leading scorer a year ago and was one of the top preseason favorites for the Karl Malone Award, given to the nation's best power forward.
Yet, instead of being the dominant interior scorer the Boilermakers need, Kaufman-Renn has been nothing more than a middling role player. He is still capable of a 20-point outing on any given night, but that has become his ceiling instead of a nightly expectation.
The Boilermakers began the season with the perfect two-man tandem on paper, both of whom were viewed as potential Big Ten Player of the Year winners. Only one of them has shown up thus far, and it is too late in the year to expect anything to change. Without another dominant scorer to supplement Smith, Purdue barely has a puncher's chance of making it to the second weekend of March Madness.
