Texas has been one of the most under-the-radar teams throughout the 2025-2026 college basketball season and on the March Madness bubble from the jump. The Longhorns needed a few wins in the SEC Tournament to solidify their postseason status, but an early loss to Ole Miss now leaves them in limbo.
The 76-66 loss was Texas' third consecutive and its fifth in its last six games. They are now just 18-14 on the year and 9-10 in the SEC, though officially 9-9 in regular-season conference play.
Texas' metrics suggest it is still a March Madness team, even with its recent struggles. The Longhorns are 38th on KenPom, with the 13th-highest offensive rating and the 17th-toughest strength of schedule.
But regardless of what the advanced numbers indicate, Texas' record is the one that matters most, and it is working against it. The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee notoriously punishes teams with fewer than 20 wins, especially those that are not above .500 in conference play.
The Longhorns are only one year removed from firing Rodney Terry for his failure to win in the NCAA Tournament and replacing him with Sean Miller. Their loss to Ole Miss puts them dangerously close to missing the cut altogether and potentially falling victim to their own expectations.
Texas' season takes brutal hit with SEC Tournament loss
Texas' late-season losses left it in dire need of at least two SEC Tournament wins to strengthen its weak March Madness resume. That seemed feasible against 12-19 Ole Miss in the first round, but the Longhorns instead suffered their most painful loss of the season.
Despite winning just four conference games in the regular season, Ole Miss punched Texas in the mouth early to take a surprising 41-30 lead into halftime. Miller's team threatened to close the gap on a few occasions in the second half, but was never able to do so in the 76-66 loss.
Texas could not hit the side of a barn all afternoon, shooting just 35 percent from the floor. Leading scorer Dailyn Swain needed 14 free throws to post a team-high 22 points, while second-leading scorer Matas Vokietaitis managed just 10 points.
The biggest story of the game was points in the paint, as Texas had nothing for Ole Miss in the trenches. Led by seniors Malik Dia and AJ Storr, the Rebels alarmingly outscored the Longhorns 50-18 in the paint.
If Texas is a March Madness team, it did not show it Wednesday night.
Texas' weak 2026 March Madness resume
Texas looked like an NCAA Tournament team in mid-February, when a five-game win streak improved its record to 17-9 and 8-5 in the SEC. One month later, they are now firmly on the outside looking in.
Texas still has an outside chance, depending on how much heavily the Selection Committee views its NET Ranking. The Longhorns are a respectable 6-9 against Quad 1 opponents, but a dismal 1-4 against Quad 2. They also own an early loss to Mississippi State that has aged like milk and significantly hurts their profile.
With multiple mid-major conferences enjoying unique success, NCAA Tournament at-large bids will come at a premium in 2026. The West Coast Conference will send three teams to the tournament for the first time since 2012, and Miami (OH)'s loss in the conference tournament likely gives the MAC two teams.
A weak year from the Big East and a subpar season from the Big Ten helps teams like Texas. The Longhorns still find themselves in the same situation as SMU, UCF, Missouri and NC State, which all deserve bids more than they do.
If Texas sneaks in, it would almost certainly be as a First Four team, setting it up to play one week after its loss to Ole Miss.
Texas is currently still on a five-year March Madness streak, going back to the 2020-2021 college basketball season. Missing the cut would make Miller the program's first head coach to do so since Shaka Smart, whom the Longhorns essentially forced out for his shortcomings.
