Illinois has not won a National Championship since the 1914-15 season, well before the days of the NCAA Tournament. Illinois avoided the nightmare situation with its draw in the NCAA Tournament. Now, they look to navigate the South Region and make a run at the title.
Illinois opened the season 4-0 before a neutral-site loss to Alabama. They would then win four of the next six games, beating Tennessee but losing to UConn and Nebraska. Then, Illinois went on a run. The Illini won 12 in a row before an overtime loss to Michigan State. In that long winning streak, they knocked off three ranked teams: Iowa, Purdue, and Nebraska.
Following the Michigan State loss, they would win just four of their final eight games, losing three of the four in overtime, including in the Big Ten tournament, as they fell 91-88 in overtime to Wisconsin. Overall, they have lost eight times this year, but four of them were in overtime.
The defense can perform
Illinois was not the best defense this year, but it still has a defense that can win a championship. Since 2002, every champion has been top 25 in defensive efficiency according to KenPom's rankings. Illinois is just outside of that mark, sitting 28th in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, the defense is 57th in opponent points per game, while sitting 27th in opponent shooting percentage, and tenth in opponent shooting efficiency.
While these marks are just outside of what is normally the mark for a national champion, Illinois has shown it can play at that level at times this year. During the 12-game winning streak, Illinois gave up 70 or more points just twice. One was an 89-70 victory over Maryland, and the other was an 88-2 victory over Purdue on the road.
Meanwhile, Illinois gave up 55 or fewer points four times in the winning streak, including two games giving up fewer than 50 points. They gave up just 48 points in a win over Missouri, while giving up just 44 points in a win over Northwestern. The defense is not elite, but it is good enough to make a run to the National Championship.
The offense is elite
While the defense for Illinois is not elite, the offense is. Illinois is second in offensive efficiency this year, only behind Purdue in KenPom's rankings. They are 20th in the nation in points per game while sitting ninth in average scoring margin. Further, they have dominated from behind the arc. Illinois is seventh in the nation in three-point attempts per game and seventh in made three pointers per game.
Furthermore, Illinois has a variety of scoring options. Keaton Wagler has been the primary option this year, leading the team with 17.9 points per game and adding 4.4 assists. Further, he has been great from behind the arc, hitting over 40 percent of his three-point attempts. Also, Andrej Stojakovic has been phenomenal, scoring 13.4 points per game.
While both Wagler and Stoakovic both are guards, Illinois also has scoring options on the inside. David Mirkovic has been solid on the inside this year, scoring 13.4 points per game. He can also kick it back to the outside, averaging 2.6 assists per game. He is joined on the inside by Tomislav Ivisic, who is scoring ten points per game this year.
Beyond the scoring ability, Illinois takes care of the ball. Illinois is 18th in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio while sitting seventh in turnovers per game. They do not give extra possessions to the opponent, and then shoot well, which leads to quality scoring. The offense can score in multiple ways and rack up points quickly, which will give them a chance to make a run to a title.
Illinois can dominate the glass
The other major asset Illinois has is in its rebounding game. Illinois is seventh in the nation in rebounds per game so far this year. The Illini are 20th in defensive rebounding per game, but third in offensive rebounding percentage this year. Currently, Illinois is averaging 12 offensive rebounds per game, leading to nearly 20 points per game in second-chance points.
The rebounding game is led by Mirkovic, who is averaging 7.8 rebounds per game this year. Meanwhile, Wagler has also been solid in the rebounding game this year. He is averaging just 4.8 rebounds per game this year, but two of the 4.8 per game are on the offensive end of the court, which typically leads to an assist for Wagler.
The Illinois aggression on the boards, especially on the offensive glass, also leads to Illinois getting to the line. Illinois averages 20.4 free throw attempts per game, converting on 16.1 per game, making them sixth in free throw percentage. Furthermore, the Illini do not get into foul trouble when going for rebounds. Illinois is second in the nation in personal fouls per game.
With the aggression of Illinois, the extra possessions they get, and the offensive firepower they have, Illinois can beat any team in the nation. If the defense can play to its best level, the Illini can win the National Championship.
