Subscribe
Follow Us
When Alabama football loses a game, that becomes the biggest storyline in the sport for the week. When Alabama's College Football Playoff chances fade away, that arguably becomes the biggest storyline of the entire season. The Crimson Tide certainly lost a game on Saturday, and likely lost their playoff hopes along with it.
Despite entering as nearly a two-touchdown favorite, Alabama fell to rival LSU 32-31 in overtime on Saturday night in Baton Rouge. Whenever the Tide seemed to gain the upper hand, the Tigers came roaring back with a quick answer. While the Tide put up a strong fight, it wasn't enough to overcome some costly mistakes throughout the game.
An overtime loss on the road usually wouldn't be enough to derail a top team's playoff hopes. However, this is Alabama's second loss of the season, previously falling to Tennessee 52-49 on Oct. 15. Due to this, and some other factors, the Tide's playoff hopes are now on life support.
Without further delay, let's go over three reasons why Alabama will not make the 2022 College Football Playoff.
3. Alabama's resume isn't that good
Take away the aura of Alabama for just a minute and look at solely this season. What has Alabama done to warrant a spot in the College Football Playoff this year? The answer: not much.
The only truly good win the Tide have this season is a 20-19 victory at Texas in Week 2. The Longhorns are a good team, but they now have three losses this season, so the Tide's win over them is not that impressive.
Additionally, the Tide didn't look that good in that game, and many would argue that they should have lost to the Longhorns. Texas took a six-point lead early in the fourth quarter, and Alabama needed some heroics from Bryce Young to pull out the victory. If Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers doesn't leave that game with an injury, Alabama likely loses.
Alabama's other wins have come against Utah State, Louisiana-Monroe, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Texas A&M and Mississippi State. Those teams have a combined record of 24-30, and only Arkansas and Mississippi State are above .500, with the Razorbacks just losing to Liberty on Saturday. The Tide have also looked vulnerable in some of those games, especially when Texas A&M took them down to the final play.
Alabama has a chance to earn a quality win against No. 11 Ole Miss on Saturday, which would be their best win of the season. But is that really enough to warrant a spot in the top four? When compared to all the other contending teams, no.
2. Alabama already has two losses
In the College Football Playoff era, no two-loss team has ever made the playoff. That second loss is nearly a death sentence for any team, even one as prestigious as Alabama.
Many two-loss teams have come close to cracking the top four, but none have succeeded. 2016 Penn State arguably should have made the playoff as a two-loss Big Ten champion, while 2017 Auburn would have made it if the two-loss Tigers defeated Georgia in the SEC Championship. Additionally, several SEC runner-ups have come close, but fell just outside the College Football Playoff in the final rankings.
All of those teams had a much better resume than Alabama, and if they didn't make it, neither will the Tide. Yes, two-loss LSU has a chance to make the CFP this year, but the Tigers have a clear edge over the Tide. In addition to the head-to-head win and a better resume, LSU has another massive advantage over Alabama when it comes to making the College Football Playoff.
1. Alabama likely won't win the SEC
Even worse than suffering a second loss, the Tide's loss to the Tigers essentially eliminated them from SEC contention. Alabama can still technically win the conference, but a lot needs to go its way.
In the absolute best-case scenario, Alabama needs to win out and hope LSU loses its last two conference games. Considering the Tigers play Arkansas and Texas A&M to close out their conference slate, that seems very unlikely. While both games are on the road, LSU should be a big favorite in both games.
Even if all of that does happen, Alabama's “reward” is a matchup with top-ranked Georgia in Atlanta. The Bulldogs have looked like the best team in the country by far this season, and they should be heavy favorites in this matchup.
Alabama has a very tough task to overcome to win the SEC title, and even if they do, there's no guarantee they make the College Football Playoff. The Tide may be the most dominant team of the playoff era, but this is simply not their year.
