There are now just two weeks left in the college football regular season, and the College Football Playoff picture is starting to take shape. Saturday was an eventful one, especially in the SEC, and the results will have a massive ripple effect heading into the Week 13 CFP rankings reveal on Tuesday night.
The biggest storyline of the day was Oklahoma, sitting in the first spot outside of the projected field at No. 11 (bumped out of the 12-team bracket due to auto-bids for the final two conference champions) and with two losses. The Sooners faced a season-defining game on the road against No. 4 Alabama and came out of Tuscaloosa with a 23-21 win to get to 8-2 on the year.
Elsewhere, Texas A&M came back from a 27-point halftime deficit against South Carolina to stay unbeaten. Notre Dame made a big statement with a 37-15 road win against a ranked Pittsburgh squad, and Georgia dominated Texas between the hedges to put the Longhorns on the outside looking in with two games to play.
Who is in the projected field heading into Week 13? Let's take a look.
1. Ohio State (10-0)
Status quo for the Buckeyes once again on Saturday as they blew past a helpless UCLA team 48-10 with no issues on Saturday night. Ryan Day and company are now 10-0 heading into the final two weeks. After coming in at No. 1 in each of the first two editions of the CFP rankings, Ohio State is surely three wins away from the top seed.
The Game against Michigan still looms in The Big House, which on paper should be fine for Day and his squad. But that hasn't meant much in recent years.
2. Texas A&M (10-0)
The Aggies had an absolute nightmare half to open the day against South Carolina, but they recovered just in time to come back and earn a dramatic 31-30 win and get to 10-0. Now, with Alabama's loss, the Aggies are in pole position to get into the SEC title game and they are still our pick to get their hands on the conference title.
Mike Elko and company will get a buy game against Samford in Week 13 before a Black Friday tilt against Texas, who is now really up against it. Get through those, and Texas A&M should have a first-round bye in the bag whether it wins the conference title or not.
3. Indiana (11-0)
Indiana struggled a bit in the first half against Wisconsin, but there were no alarm bells for Curt Cignetti and company in the second half of a 31-7 rout of the Badgers. The Hoosiers are off in Week 13, so they will be in the top three heading into a regular season finale against Purdue.
For Cignetti, all eyes will be on the Big Ten Championship Game against Ohio State, which could help Indiana earn the No. 1 seed. However, we're not quite ready to give it the win over the Buckeyes just yet.
4. Georgia (9-1)
Georgia was arguably the most impressive team on Saturday, crushing Texas 35-10 in Athens. That result, combined with Alabama's loss earlier in the day, should have Georgia in pole position to earn the No. 4 seed and the final first-round bye.
Kirby Smart and company still need some help to get into the SEC title game, but even if that doesn't come, a win over Georgia Tech on Black Friday should be enough to earn direct entry into the quarterfinals.
5. Texas Tech (10-1)
There is an argument to be made that Texas Tech should earn the fourth spot and the final bye, but nothing that happened on Saturday will leapfrog it above Georgia. Still, the Red Raiders did take care of business with a comfortable 48-9 win over UCF.
Texas Tech will likely slide in at the No. 5 spot on Tuesday night. However, if Georgia misses out on the SEC title game entirely and Tech gets another impressive win and a conference title, it will have an argument to keep moving up.
6. Ole Miss (10-1)
Ole Miss survived a sleepy defensive performance in the first half against Florida to get a 34-24 win and get to 10-1 on the season. The Rebels are a bit frustrating at times, but this offense can move the ball and score on anyone (as long as Lane Kiffin puts the Austin Simmons goal line package away).
Ole Miss is off in Week 13 before the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State in Starkville. Win that, and the Rebels will be in comfortably with a home playoff game. What could go wrong?
7. Alabama (8-2)
Alabama's placement on Tuesday night will be the most fascinating decision the committee has had to make all year. Nobody else in the country has Alabama's profile of wins: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, at Georgia and at Tennessee. But a loss to Florida State has aged poorly and now the Tide have a second defeat on their resume.
Crucially, Alabama is still in the SEC title game if — and it's a big if — it wins at Auburn in Week 14. Assuming the committee doesn't punish it for an extra loss in that game, the quality wins should still have it in a home playoff game.
8. Oregon (9-1)
Oregon's win profile is still underwhelming at the minute, and it remains to be seen whether Iowa will still be ranked after picking up its fourth loss on Saturday. However, Dan Lanning and company are in the clear with only one loss and the hardest stretch of schedule coming up.
A top-20 USC team will come to Eugene in Week 13 for a monster game with College GameDay in attendance before Oregon heads to Seattle for a rivalry clash with Washington. Don't remind the Ducks about their last trip north with CFP hopes on the line.
9. Oklahoma (8-2)
Welcome to the projection, Oklahoma! The Sooners were very impressive on defense, even without standout defensive lineman R Mason Thomas, and made enough plays on offense to knock off Alabama and enter the CFP projection with two games to go. John Mateer can be dangerous in any one-game setting, and Brent Venables is still one of the best defensive game-planners in the sport.
Oklahoma doesn't have to leave Norman to secure a playoff berth. Home games against Missouri and LSU await the Sooners, and wins over both would get OU firmly in the top 12.
10. Notre Dame (8-2)
Notre Dame made a major statement on Saturday with a dominant 37-15 win over a previously-ranked Pittsburgh team. The Irish went up 14-0 quickly on the road and were never tested for the rest of the day. After starting the year 0-2, the Irish are two wins away from a CFP berth.
Those two wins should come without much trouble against Syracuse and Stanford. Whether that can get Marcus Freeman and company a home game remains to be seen, but a berth in the top 12 should be safe.
11. Georgia Tech (9-1)
This week's episode of “Who wants to win the ACC?” was just as dramatic as all the rest, and now we finally have a little bit of clarity on the race for the wildest conference in America. Duke is out after losing to Virginia, who is still right in the mix. Louisville is also out after one of the more inexplicable fourth quarters you'll see in a loss to Clemson.
Georgia Tech nearly joined them before recovering to get a last-second 36-34 win over one-win Boston College and remain with just one loss in conference play. Brent Key and company will finish off ACC play against Pittsburgh at home in Week 13 before taking on Georgia in Atlanta. Virginia, SMU and Pitt are all still alive with one loss in the conference.
12. James Madison (9-1)
The Group of Five spot continues to change hands. Memphis lost the spot in Week 11 before South Florida fell against Navy in Week 12. Now, North Texas, Navy and Tulane are in the driver's seat in the American, but we think James Madison could be the team that gets the final spot if it continues winning.
The Dukes have an explosive offense led by quarterback Alonza Barnett III, and only have one early-season loss against Louisville. The Dukes only have to beat Washington State and Coastal Carolina before the conference title game.
Next Out: Vanderbilt, BYU, Miami (FL), Utah
Quarterfinal Predictions
Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 8 Oregon
Cotton Bowl: No. 2 Texas A&M vs. No. 7 Alabama
Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Indiana vs. No. 6 Ole Miss
Orange Bowl: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 5 Texas Tech
Semifinal Predictions
Fiesta Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Texas Tech
Peach Bowl: No. 2 Texas A&M vs. No. 6 Ole Miss
National Championship Prediction
No. 1 Ohio State over No. 2 Texas A&M
