The No. 8 Indiana Hoosiers escaped the Iowa Hawkeyes with a 20-15 win on September 27, but it wasn't pretty. The undefeated Hoosiers needed a last-minute touchdown to avoid their first loss, and the performance has fans wondering what comes next.
Should Indiana fans panic? Not yet. Call it a 4 out of 10 on the panic meter. There's real concern after what happened against Iowa, but it's not time to lose faith just yet. Indiana found a way to win when nothing was working, and that counts for something.
With 1:28 left and trailing by two, quarterback Fernando Mendoza hit Elijah Sarratt with a 49-yard touchdown pass to steal the victory. The clutch play saved Indiana's perfect season, but the game exposed some issues that had been hidden during the hot start.
For the first time this season, Mendoza had trouble. He completed just 13 of 23 passes for 233 yards and threw his first interception of the year in a big fourth-quarter spot. Iowa's defense brought pressure on two-thirds of his dropbacks, forcing him to rush his decisions. Even on plays where the pocket stayed clean, Mendoza hurried his throws and missed open receivers.
Indiana did not have success with their running game all afternoon long. The Hoosiers averaged only 2.7 yards per attempt in running the ball and were unable to move the ball in short-yardage situations. The offense had to depend on Mendoza way too much as they could convert only 3 of the 9 third or fourth downs that required 2 yards or less.
The play-calling raised questions, too. Mike Shanahan spent his timeout in the second quarter on a fourth-and-1 and later returned with the same identical formation and play that Iowa obviously expected. Because of the Iowa front seven that gave the o-line nowhere to go, the lack of creativity during those moments made things harder than it had to be.
But Indiana's defense kept them in the game. They were able to hold Iowa to 284 total yards and shut down the Hawkeyes' running game. This limited them to just 92 yards on 3.0 yards per carry. Defensive coordinator Bryant Haines' unit, led by cornerback D'Angelo Ponds, linebacker Aiden Fisher, and defensive lineman Mikail Kamara, made tackles when they had to.
Two interceptions gave Indiana's offense short fields at critical times and kept the game within reach.
And when it mattered most, Mendoza delivered. The scoring drive, which covered 76 yards, took only 33 seconds and on a deep throw to Sarratt, he landed it with precision after facing heavy pressure all day. His last throw proved that he can still come through when called upon by his team when needed.
How dominant Indiana was before Iowa
The Iowa match did raise some concerns, given how good they looked through the first four games. The Hoosiers opened the season with three home games in which they won easily, beating Old Dominion 27-14. They then shut out Kennesaw State 56-9, and Indiana State 73-0. They continued on with a conference win over Illinois, 63-10.
Mendoza had been perfect through those first four games. He completed 76 of 99 passes for 975 yards with 14 touchdowns and zero interceptions. His 206.16 passer rating led the nation. People were talking about him as a Heisman Trophy candidate.
The close call at Iowa didn't change the fact that Indiana still looks like a playoff team. But it did reveal some weaknesses that better opponents might exploit. The first four games made the Hoosiers look unstoppable. Iowa showed they're very good, but not perfect.
The real test comes against Oregon
The good news is Indiana has two weeks to fix things. They're on a bye before facing their toughest challenge of the season on October 11 when they visit No. 2 Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium. ESPN gives Indiana just a 29.8 percent chance of winning.
This is where the Iowa struggles become a real problem. Oregon isn't the kind of team that lets you hang around like Iowa did. The Ducks have been destroying opponents at home this season, winning by an average of 48.7 points. Their offense, led by quarterback Dante Moore, attacks relentlessly and punishes every mistake. Moore has thrown for 1,210 yards with 14 touchdowns and just one interception through five games this season, completing 74.6 percent of his passes.
Indiana's offense needs to be sharper. Shanahan's play-calling has to improve, especially in short-yardage situations where the predictable sequences won't work against Oregon's athletic defensive front. The offensive line needs to create some push and give Mendoza better protection. Oregon's pass rush is quicker and more aggressive than what Iowa brought, and without time to throw and some kind of running game, Indiana will struggle to stay on the field.
The defense faces its biggest test too. Moore and Oregon's receivers are more talented than anyone the Hoosiers have seen. One blown coverage can turn into six points in a hurry against this offense.
Schedule and playoff outlook
Despite the close call at Iowa, Indiana moved up to No. 8 in the AP Poll and remains No. 5 in ESPN's power rankings. The playoff picture looks solid too, with ESPN projecting Indiana to finish 10.6-1.8 in the regular season and a 68.4 percent chance of making the playoff.
Indiana’s tough path continues beyond Oregon with road games at Penn State and Maryland, plus home games against Michigan State, UCLA, and Wisconsin. The Hoosiers will make the necessary adjustments behind Curt Cignetti’s track record. In his debut season, the coach turned an 11-loss program into an 11-win playoff team, and he's known for fixing problems rapidly.
The Iowa game was a wake-up call for Indiana, but it did not cost them. Are the Iowa struggles a one-time thing or a sign of something more serious? How they respond against Oregon will tell us. As Indiana retains their perfect record and playoff spot, the real challenges begin.
