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Now that the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff has concluded, it’s never too early to start looking ahead to the 2026 event. The expanded format brought plenty of surprises, thanks to the addition of eight more teams from the previous four-team model. Among the biggest surprises were the unexpected programs that made it into the bracket.
For instance, who predicted Indiana from the Big Ten would secure a spot? Or that SMU, in its first season in the ACC, would play for a conference title and earn a playoff berth despite losing in the championship game? Or that even Arizona State would win the Big 12 and earn a first round bye into the playoff? Looking ahead, who could be next year’s version of Indiana, SMU or Arizona State?
You have to start with the Oklahoma Sooners from the SEC.
Oklahoma
Brent Venables will be in desperation mode entering the 2025 season. The head coach will be in his fourth year at Oklahoma, with just one winning season to his name. Currently sitting at 22-17 overall, with only one top-25 finish and three bowl losses, Venables faces mounting pressure.
However, the Sooners made a significant splash during the transfer portal cycle, landing highly coveted Washington State quarterback John Mateer. Mateer has the potential to be a game-changer for Oklahoma, stepping in to replace Jackson Arnold. Additionally, he’ll be reuniting with his former offensive coordinator from Washington State, a move that could provide immediate stability and improvement to the offense. If Oklahoma can secure additional wide receiver help during the spring portal period, the Sooners’ offense could be poised for a rebound.
The biggest hurdle for Venables and Oklahoma, though, is their brutal schedule. The Sooners will hit the road to face South Carolina, Tennessee, and Alabama, while hosting LSU, Ole Miss, Auburn, and Michigan in nonconference play.
If Mateer lives up to his potential and Venables can rally his team, the Sooners could surprise many as contenders for the 2026 College Football Playoff. However, navigating their daunting schedule will be no easy feat.
Syracuse
What Fran Brown accomplished at Syracuse in Year 1 deserves recognition. Brown, who previously served as a defensive backs coach at Rutgers and Georgia from 2020 to 2023, was considered a surprising hire for the Orange. But then he hit the recruiting trail—and made an immediate impact. Most notably, he brought in former Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord, who helped orchestrate one of the top offenses in the nation during the 2024 season.
Granted, McCord is heading to the NFL, as is standout running back LeQuint Allen. That leaves Syracuse with work to do on the roster to replicate last year’s success. However, the Orange have brought in former four-star quarterback Rickie Collins, a transfer from LSU. ESPN has predicted Collins to take the reins as the starting quarterback in 2025.
After finishing 10-3 last season, Syracuse has established a new standard for success under Brown. In what looks to be another competitive and wide-open ACC, the Orange have as good a shot as any team to contend for a conference title and potentially secure a spot in the 2026 College Football Playoff. They were slept on last season; maybe they shouldn't be in 2025.
Duke
Another ACC team that turned heads last season was Duke. The Blue Devils built on their recent success under former head coach Mike Elko, now at Texas A&M, with first-year head coach Manny Diaz leading them to a nine-win season—just shy of a top-25 finish. It marked Duke's second nine-win campaign in the last three years.
Diaz has excelled in utilizing the transfer portal, particularly at the quarterback position. Last season, he brought in Malik Murphy from Texas, who played broke Blue Devils records. With Murphy now headed to Oregon State, Duke may have found an even better replacement in former Tulane quarterback Darian Mensah.
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For Duke to surprise the college football world and secure a spot in next year’s College Football Playoff, they’ll need to navigate a tough schedule. The Blue Devils face three tough nonconference matchups, including Illinois at home and Tulane and UConn on the road—each of whom recorded nine wins last season.
Texas Tech
Since Joey McGuire took over in Lubbock, Texas Tech has enjoyed three consecutive winning seasons, finishing the 2024 campaign with an 8-5 record. The Red Raiders were one of seven Big 12 teams to win six or more conference games, finishing 6-3 in league play.
The Big 12 remains one of the most unpredictable conferences in the country, even more so than the ACC. That trend looks likely to continue in 2025, making Texas Tech a sleeper candidate to win the conference and potentially earn a spot in the 2026 College Football Playoff. Last season, Arizona State shocked everyone by winning the conference despite being projected to finish last. If the Sun Devils could do it, why not the Red Raiders?
Texas Tech holds a significant advantage heading into 2025: the No. 3 ranked transfer portal class, according to 247Sports. The Red Raiders have added 17 new players to overhaul their roster a bit. Additionally, McGuire hired Shiel Wood as the team’s new defensive coordinator to improve a unit that struggled last season.
However, challenges remain. Quarterback Behren Morton is recovering from shoulder surgery, and the team must replace standout running back Tahj Brooks. If McGuire can guide his revamped roster through these hurdles, the Red Raiders could make noise in the Big 12 and beyond next season.
Illinois
Bret Bielema entered the 2024 season with Illinois facing significant pressure. Coming off a disappointing 5-7 campaign, the Fighting Illini were in need of a bounce-back year. They delivered in a big way, securing their first 10-win season since 2001 and finishing in the top 20 nationally.
Building on that success won’t be easy, especially in a competitive Big Ten conference. However, if the 2024 season taught us anything, it’s that the College Football Playoff committee has a strong affinity for Big Ten teams. Four programs from the conference—Oregon, Penn State, Indiana, and national champion Ohio State—earned spots in the inaugural 12-team playoff.
The key for Illinois heading into 2025 will be the return of a veteran core, led by quarterback Luke Altmyer. With an experienced roster and a relatively manageable schedule, the Fighting Illini are poised to make noise as a potential sleeper team in the Big Ten and the 2026 College Football Playoff.
