With a massive Week 4 win over Auburn, Oklahoma is off to a stellar 4-0 start to the 2025 college football season. However, the Sooners lost star quarterback John Mateer to a thumb injury in the victory, significantly lowering their rest-of-season outlook.
Although Mateer did not appear to be hurt during the win, the team announced that he will undergo surgery to repair a broken thumb and be out for roughly one month. The injury is in his throwing hand, potentially creating a murky return timeline.
Mateer, the No. 1 quarterback in the 2025 college football transfer portal, was the Heisman Trophy frontrunner before Oklahoma announced his injury. Needless to say, the loss turns the Sooners from premier national title contenders to fringe SEC hopefuls.
With the Sooners on a bye in Week 5, head coach Brent Venables has two weeks to prepare his team for the absence of Mateer. The Sooners are fortunate to have an experienced backup in Michael Hawkins, who started three games in 2024. Hawkins led them to a win on the road in his first career start, but was benched just two games later and would not start another game for the remainder of the year.
Venables is currently in his fourth year in Norman and was enjoying his most successful season as a head coach before losing his star quarterback. Oklahoma is still backed by an elite defense, but everything changes when Mateer is no longer commanding the huddle.
Predicting when John Mateer will return to Oklahoma from thumb injury
If all goes well, Oklahoma expects Mateer to be out for three to four weeks. In the best-case scenario, that puts him on track to potentially return by the Sooners' Oct. 25 home game against Ole Miss.
Considering the situation, Oklahoma football fans would be happy with that outcome. However, there are several other factors that may potentially influence his return.
Mateer's thumb injury is in his throwing hand, which could create further issues. He still managed to throw for 271 yards against Auburn, despite reportedly suffering the injury in the first quarter. Yet, quarterbacks are historically cautious when it comes to injuries to their dominant hands.
An Oct. 25 return is still well within reason, but Oklahoma's second bye is just two weeks later. Mateer would need to have a near-perfect recovery to be back before November, and by then, the team might opt to hold him out through its Week 11 bye to give him an additional week.
During his brief tenure, Venables has largely maintained his no-nonsense approach. Even if it causes his team a loss, Venables will not play Mateer until he is fully healthy. Oklahoma might not get its star back until Nov. 15 against Alabama.
Oklahoma football predictions without John Mateer
Without Mateer in the lineup, expect a lot of slow-paced, low-scoring games from Oklahoma. The Sooners will look to lean on their stout defense, which is currently allowing the second-fewest points per game in the SEC, and just sacked Jackson Arnold a record 10 times.
Whether Mateer can meet his four-week timeline or not, Oklahoma will have to face at least one ranked team without him. The Sooners will have to meet No. 10 Texas in the 2025 Red River Rivalry game without him.
Kent State
However, Venables fortunately has an additional week to prepare Hawkins for that contest. Oklahoma will face 1-3 Kent State coming out of its bye week. With or without Mateer, the Sooners will be massive favorites for that game and should win without much of a sweat.
Texas
Barring a miracle, Oklahoma will stroll into the biggest game of college football Week 7 with a pristine 5-0 record. Texas figures to be favored against a struggling Florida squad in Week 6, making it likely that the Longhorns will also enter the matchup undefeated.
Texas has struggled early on, but it seemed to put the pieces together in a 55-0 Week 4 win over Sam Houston State. The Longhorns might not be the team many expected them to be in the preseason, but they should beat a Mateer-less Oklahoma team. Texas was one of the three teams that Hawkins played against in 2024, and led the Sooners to a disastrous 34-3 defeat.
South Carolina
Oklahoma's defense could make that game against Texas competitive, but it could struggle in Week 8 against South Carolina. The Gamecocks were another team Hawkins faced in 2024; he threw two interceptions in the first half and was benched during a 35-9 loss.
If LaNorris Sellers misses that game — he continues to be an early-season mainstay of the injury report — the advantage goes back to Oklahoma. But with him in the lineup, South Carolina's offense is as good as any in the country, and the Sooners will not have enough to keep up.
Ole Miss
Oklahoma returns home in Week 9 against Ole Miss. That game would be difficult with Mateer, let alone without him.
Regardless of who plays, expect a thrilling chess match between Lane Kiffin's high-powered offense and Venables' stifling defense. For as suffocating as the Sooners' defense has been thus far, Ole Miss' offense has been equally as efficient, averaging 44.8 points per game through four games against quality competition.
It is difficult to gauge how the Oklahoma offense will look by then, making Ole Miss the side with fewer questions. The Sooners, unfortunately, drop their third straight.
Tennessee
Unless Mateer's recovery goes perfectly, it is easy to see Venables holding him out through the team's second bye. In that case, he misses another high-profile clash against Tennessee's elite offense.
Through four games, the Volunteers look even better than they did in 2024. Their defense is beatable, as Georgia exposed in Week 3, but this offense is one of the quickest and most dynamic units in the country. Without Mateer, it is difficult to see Oklahoma keeping pace.
Alabama, Missouri, LSU
By our projections, Mateer will return to the field for Oklahoma's Week 12 matchup with Alabama. Their College Football Playoff hopes might be dashed by that point, but the Sooners still end the year with three marquee matchups.
Each game will be a difficult, unique test, and it will be interesting to see how quickly Mateer re-acclimates himself. However, if Oklahoma looks anything like it did in its first four games with him in the lineup, it should win all three games.
Their season finale against LSU will be the most challenging matchup, but if the Sooners can get past Alabama and Missouri, they will have all the momentum against the Tigers at home.
If our projections ring true, Oklahoma will go 7-0 with Mateer and just 1-4 without him, a frustrating end to a promising season. Unfortunately, that would likely keep them on the outskirts of the playoffs, even with three strong wins at the end of the year.
Oklahoma 2025 final record prediction: 8-4
