The Red River Rivalry returns to this Saturday with Texas desperately seeking redemption after a disappointing start to their 2025 campaign. Despite entering the season ranked No. 1 nationally, the Longhorns find themselves at 3-2 following crushing losses to Ohio State and Florida. Now facing an undefeated No. 6 Oklahoma team boasting the nation's top defense, Texas must deliver their best performance of the season to salvage their playoff hopes. Here are three bold predictions for how the Longhorns will respond in this crucial SEC showdown.
Arch Manning Will Explode for 400+ Total Yards and Four Touchdowns
While critics have questioned Arch Manning's development through five games, the Red River Rivalry presents the perfect stage for the sophomore quarterback to silence doubters with a breakout performance. Manning enters Saturday with 1,151 passing yards and 11 touchdowns through the air, plus 160 rushing yards and five rushing scores. His 230.2 passing yards per game average will need to increase dramatically against Oklahoma's stingy defense that allows just 193 total yards per contest.
The key to Manning's success lies in Steve Sarkisian finally adjusting the offensive game plan to minimize the quarterback's lengthy 3.23-second average time to throw. Against Florida, Manning's tendency to hold the ball too long resulted in six sacks and constant pressure from the Gators' defensive front. However, Oklahoma's defense, while dominant, has shown vulnerability against explosive passing plays when offenses execute quickly and decisively.
Manning's dual-threat ability becomes crucial in this matchup. His rushing touchdowns have been a consistent bright spot this season, with five scores on the ground already matching his 2024 total. Against Oklahoma's aggressive pass rush led by their interior defensive tackle rotation, Manning will need to utilize his mobility to extend plays and create opportunities downfield. The Cotton Bowl's neutral site atmosphere, combined with the rivalry's emotional intensity, will provide the spark Manning needs to deliver his signature moment as Texas's starting quarterback.
Texas Will Rush for Over 200 Yards
The Longhorns' ground game faces significant challenges entering Saturday's showdown, as leading rusher CJ Baxter remains sidelined with the hamstring injury that has kept him out since the UTEP game. Baxter's absence removes a crucial component from Texas's offensive attack, as the sophomore had established himself as a reliable option alongside Quintrevion Wisner in the backfield rotation.
However, this adversity will force Texas to unleash a more diverse and creative rushing attack that catches Oklahoma off guard. Wisner, who was projected as the team's primary back entering the season, will shoulder increased responsibility while receiving support from an unexpected source – Manning's designed quarterback runs. The Longhorns' coaching staff will implement a series of read-option plays and quarterback draws that exploit Oklahoma's aggressive defensive alignment.
Freshman James Simon and sophomore Jerrick Gibson will also play expanded roles in the rushing attack, providing fresh legs and different skill sets that Oklahoma hasn't extensively prepared for. The Sooners' defense, while statistically dominant, has primarily faced traditional offensive approaches this season. Texas will counter with a more dynamic ground game featuring multiple ball carriers, misdirection plays, and Manning's athleticism to consistently move the chains and control time of possession.
Texas Defense Will Force Four Turnovers and Hold Oklahoma Under 14 Points
While much attention focuses on Texas's offensive struggles, the Longhorns' defense possesses the talent and motivation to deliver a dominant performance against Oklahoma's conservative offensive approach. Texas enters the rivalry game ranked 10th nationally in total defense and will benefit from the expected return of starting cornerback Malik Muhammad, who missed time with injury concerns.
Oklahoma's offensive strategy relies heavily on ball control and limiting mistakes, but this conservative approach creates opportunities for an aggressive Texas defense to force turnovers and create short fields for their struggling offense. The Sooners' reluctance to take downfield risks, combined with uncertainty at the quarterback position regarding John Mateer's availability, plays directly into Texas's defensive strengths.
Texas defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski will dial up pressure packages designed to confuse Oklahoma's offensive line and force hurried decisions from whoever takes snaps for the Sooners. The emotional intensity of the Red River Rivalry, combined with Texas's desperate need for a statement victory, will elevate the defensive unit's performance to championship levels. Expect multiple interceptions, fumble recoveries, and defensive scores that swing momentum decisively in the Longhorns' favor while providing the offensive spark they've lacked in recent weeks.
The Cotton Bowl crowd's energy, split evenly between both fan bases, will create an electric atmosphere that benefits the team making big defensive plays. Texas's secondary, led by safety Michael Taaffe who leads the team with 32 tackles, will capitalize on Oklahoma's conservative passing attack to generate the game-changing turnovers that define rivalry victories and propel the Longhorns back into College Football Playoff contention.
