In 2024, Oregon made the College Football Playoff for the first time in the 2014 National Championship Game. Now, they look to return for a second year in a row. Oregon was ranked ninth in the initial rankings, and that could spell trouble for the Ducks.
The Ducks are 7-1 on the year. They opened the year 4-0, and were dominant in the process. They then got a win over a ranked team, defeating Penn State in double overtime. The team then had an open week before facing Indiana. They fell in that game 30-20. Since then, Oregon has won two in a row. First, they defeated Rutgers on the road, but then struggled some against Wisconsin. The team led by just seven points at the end of the first half, but did go on to win the game 21-7.
Oregon needs a signature win
One of the biggest knocks against Oregon has been its strength of record this year. The signature win of the year for the Ducks is against Penn State. Penn State was a favorite in that game and ranked third in the nation. Oregon got the upset, but in hindsight, the victory looks shallow. Penn State has lost every game since that loss to Oregon. Further, they do not have a win in Big Ten play and have fired their coach.
Meanwhile, Oregon has just one win over a team with a winning record. That was their third win of the year over Northwestern, which is 5-3 on the season. Meanwhile, teams behind Oregon have more impressive resumes, even with more losses. Texas has wins over Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. They face Georgia next, and could jump the Ducks with a win.
Oklahoma has wins over Michigan and Tennessee. They will also get a chance to take out Alabama. The Ducks still have a chance to get some quality wins. Oregon faces Iowa this week, followed by USC and Washington to end the season.
The Ducks cannot afford a loss
With the poor strength of the record, Oregon cannot afford a loss. Last year, BYU proved that it can be difficult to get over a bad loss. BYU was ranked ninth in the first rankings of 2014. The team was undefeated at the time, but had just one win over a ranked opponent. That was agaisnt Kansas State, who was ranked 19th in the first rankings. BYU then struggled the next week, but still took a win over Utah on the road. The next week, BYU lost to Kansas and dropped outside of the top 12. They never recovered, having another loss and missing the playoffs.
Meanwhile, Oregon has a difficult game this upcoming week. They face Iowa, which has been solid this year and is playing its best football of the year. Every team behind Oregon has either one or two losses, except for Tennessee in the 25th spot. All of them could improve their records and potentially jump Oregon. Further, two of the teams currently behind Oregon will get automatic berths due to winning their conference.
This means if Oregon even drops two spots, they could be on the outside looking in. A loss will drop them at least two spots, so Oregon has to win out.
Oregon could get in through the Big Ten Title game
The easiest way for Oregon to make it to the playoffs is to go in as an automatic qualifier by winning the Big Ten. The Ducks would likely make the playoffs by winning out, even without making it to the Big Ten Title Game. According to ESPN's playoff probability, Oregon has a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs by winning out.
Still, if the team wants to guarantee itself a spot in the playoffs, the best course is to win the Big Ten. In order to make it to the Big Ten Title Game, the team would need some help. Due to the head-to-head loss to Indiana, the Ducks would need Indiana to lose twice to pass them. The Hooisers face Penn State, Wisconsin, and Purdue to finish the season.
Oregon could also get help from Michigan. Michigan has just one loss in conference play, and could remain with just one conference loss heading into the game with Ohio State. Ohio State could still be without a conference loss heading into the game with Michigan. If Michigan can defeat Ohio State for a fifth straight season, this would create a three-way tie. Oregon would get the nod in a three-way tiebreaking scenario.
Oregon still can be a playoff team, but they have to take care of business on the field. One slip-up, and it could be off to the Citrus Bowl for the Ducks.
