The Big 12 has been lurking in the background as a conference this season while the SEC and the Big Ten take center stage, but it takes center stage on Saturday in Week 11. No. 7 BYU goes on the road to take on No. 8 Texas Tech in a battle between the top two teams in the conference at the moment.
This matchup has massive conference championship and College Football Playoff implications after both teams slotted into the top eight in the initial College Football Playoff rankings. The Red Raiders have already suffered a loss in Big 12 play, so a second defat would almost certainly mean the end of their hopes for a Big 12 title and a CFP berth.
Interestingly, the undefeated team is the one who people have more questions about coming into this game. BYU has a true freshman quarterback and hasn't passed the eye test to some so far this season, but it wins the games and gets by every week.
So what's going to decide this matchup? Let's dig into three keys to the biggest game in the Big 12 this year.
Can Bear Bachmeier handle the moment?
Bear Bachmeier is arguably the most impressive true freshman in the country to this point. Is he the best? No. But he showed up on campus after the controversial departure of an established starter in Jake Retzlaff and won the job in his first camp. Not only that, but he has now led the Cougars to an 8-0 start and a real shot at making the CFP for the first time.
To this point, Bachmeier has handled every scenario he has faced with incredible poise and maturity, even if the football gets a little chaotic at times. Close road test against a sold-out Folsom Field in Boulder? Pass. Double-overtime on the road against Arizona? Pass. Holy War against a red-hot Utah team? Pass!
This will be his biggest test yet. College GameDay is coming to Lubbock on Saturday, and it will be the 17-year anniversary of the last time GameDay came to Texas Tech. That day ended with the most iconic moment in program history as Michael Crabtree put away Texas at the horn, and Jones AT&T Stadium will be rocking for this one, tortillas or not.
We'll get into the football reasons why this will be a difficult test for the Bachmeier and the rest of this BYU offense, but the environment and the stage itself is going to be a big mountain for the young quarterback to climb. We'll see if he can pass another test on Saturday.
Strength-on-strength in the run game
BYU wants to run the football. It's what the Cougars do best as a team, and it's what Bachmeier does best as the quarterback. That strategy will be amplified with the news that LJ Martin will play in this game despite dealing with an injury.
BYU currently ranks second in the Big 12 in rushing with more than 216 yards per game, trailing only the machine that is the Utah ground attack. Martin has carried the ball 132 times this season for nearly 800 yards and Bachmeier has been a monster in short-yardage situations with nine touchdowns on the ground.
There's going to be one problem on Saturday. Not only is it very difficult to run the ball on Texas Tech, it's nearly impossible to get the ground game going against this front seven. Texas Tech the best defensive line in the Big 12 by a very wide margin, and it has an elite linebacker in Jacob Rodriguez to clean everything up.
The result? Not only do the Red Raiders have the best run defense in the Big 12, but they have the No. 1 ranked run defense in the entire country. That's right, teams are running for less than 75 yards per game against the Red Raiders. Texas Tech has the ability to dominate the line of scrimmage in this lineup, and Rodriguez is athletic enough to keep Bachmeier in check on the ground.
If BYU's running game does get slowed down, Bachmeier will be forced to beat Texas Tech on the road with his arm. He is a talented passer, but he is still a little too erratic with his accuracy and decision-making to do that without the help of the run game.
Texas Tech excels on key downs
Texas Tech has dominated most teams on all downs, but it has excelled on late downs all season and that is why it has run away with so many of these games. That will be a key again on Saturday in what is likely to be a low-scoring affair with both teams trying to get the run game going against good fronts.
Joey McGuire's squad has been very proficient on third downs this season, converting nearly 50% of the time. BYU has been very good against third downs, allowing a conversion nearly 32% of the time, but a lot of Texas Tech's success on late downs comes from getting into manageable down-and-distances. The Red Raiders should be able to run the ball well enough to do that again, and it will be hard for BYU to stop them.
On the other side, BYU has struggled on third down at times this season due to a fairly limited passing game with a young quarterback. The Cougars rank in the middle of the pack in the country with a conversion rate just over 40%, while Texas Tech is right with the Cougars on defense at just over 31%. If Texas Tech can stop the run on early downs and force BYU into obvious passing situations on third down, it will have plenty of success getting off the field.
Fourth downs are a little shakier because a lot of them come in desperation situations and the sample sizes are much smaller, but Texas Tech is rock-solid there as well. It is one of the 10 best teams, in terms of percentage, at stopping opponents on fourth down, getting 16 stops in 24 tries. A big part of this is Texas Tech's ability to get after the quarterback, which should come into play once again on Saturday.
Overall, the Red Raiders have an advantage on these key downs. If BYU can't reverse that in a big way before Saturday, it will be very tough for it to pull the upset in Lubbock.
