It is a top-25 matchup in the Big Ten on Saturday as Oregon visits Iowa. Oregon comes in ranked ninth in the first College Football Playoff rankings. Meanwhile, Iowa is ranked 20th and will be looking for the upset of the Ducks at home.
Oregon comes into the game at 7-1. After four dominating performances to open the season, the Ducks needed double overtime to defeat Penn State. They would then have an open week before facing Indiana at home. Oregon fell 30-20 in that game. The team then dispatched of Rutgers 56-10, but had some difficulty with Wisconsin. Oregon led just 7-0 at the end of the first half, but the defense kept Wisconsin at bay, as they went on to win the game 21-7.
Meanwhile, Iowa is 6-2 on the year. They opened up with a 34-7 win over Albany, but would fall on the road to Iowa State 16-13. The Hawkeyes then defeated UMass and Rutgers before hosting Indiana. It was a tight game with Indiana, as Iowa took a three-point lead early in the fourth quarter. Still, Indiana would make the comeback, winning the game 20-15. Since then, Iowa has defeated Penn State and Minnesota.
Oregon relies on the ground game
The Oregon offense has been solid this year. The team is sixth in the nation in points per game while sitting fifth in yards per game. The team is also ninth in running yards per game, while sitting 45th in passing yards per game this year. Meanwhile, Dante Moore has been up and down this year. In his last game, he passed for just 86 yards before Moore left the game with an injury. While he had a solid game against Rutgers, he also struggled against Indiana.
Against Indiana, he was just 21 for 34 for 186 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. He was also sacked six times. This year, Moore has passed for 1,772 yards with 19 touchdowns and four interceptions. Meanwhile, Iowa is fourth in the nation against the pass, but 12th against the run. This is going to force Oregon to rely on the ground game.
Jordan Davison has been solid this year. He has run 51 times for 352 yards while finding the end zone ten times. He has also run for over 100 yards with a score in each of the last two games. Meanwhile, Noah Whittington has run for 433 yards and four touchdowns this year. Against Rutgers, he ran for 125 yards and two touchdowns, and then ran for 97 yards against Wisconsin. The two running backs are going to be the focus of the Oregon offense in this game.
Mark Gronowski has a big game
The Iowa offense has not been great this year, but it has been solid. They are 39th in the nation in points per game while sitting 119th in yards per game. The passing offense is 129th in the nation, while the run is 55th in the nation. The Oregon defense has been one of the best in the nation. They are fourth in opponent points per game while sitting second in opponent yards per game. They are also the best in the nation against the pass, but 32nd against the run.
Mark Gronowski has been great for the Iowa offense since transferring in from South Dakota State. He has completed 107 of 165 yards for 946 yards and four touchdowns. He also has four interceptions. The senior quarterback has not passed for over 200 yards this year, and has just one game with over one touchdown pass. His passing game has not been the primary aspect of his game, though. Gronkowski has run for 313 yards and 11 touchdowns.
So far this year, Gronkowski has run for a touchdown in every game this year. Further, it was the ground game of Gronkowski that led Iowa to the win over Penn State. He ran for 1230 yards and two touchdowns in that game. The Iowa quarterback will not throw for over 200 yards in this game, but will throw near 150. Further, he will account for at least two touchdowns while running for over 50 yards.
Defense keeps this close
The Iowa defense has been great this year. The team has given up 20 or more points just three times this year, while losing just one of them. They also had a shutout of Wisconsin while putting up 37 points in the game. Meanwhile, Oregon has given up over 20 points just twice this year. One was in the loss to a high-powered Indiana team, while the other required double overtime for Penn State to get over the 20-point marker.
Turnovers are also going to play a major factor in this game. Oregon is 26th in the nation in turnover margin, while forcing 1.6 turnovers per game. Still, Iowa is 15th in turnover margin and also forces 1.6 turnovers per game. The biggest factor will be the red zone, though. The Oregon red zone play this year has not been great. They are 73rd in scoring, but 134th in red zone defense. Meanwhile, Iowa is 16th in scoring and 37th in red zone defense.
Odds at the time of writing, provided by FanDuel, have Iowa as a 6.5-point underdog. Iowa is 5-2-1 against the spread, but 1-0-1 as an underdog. Meanwhile, Oregon has failed to cover in two of its last three games. Iowa not only covers, but puts Oregon on upset alert in this one.
