Miami football had aspirations of being a playoff team this year. After the first rankings, they are on the outside looking in. This leads to the question: Is all hope lost to make a playoff run this year?
Miami starts ranked number 18 in the first CFP rankings. The team started 5-0. While the first game of the season, a win over Notre Dame, could be seen as a quality win, the rest of the winning streak is not looking as good. There is a win over Bethune-Cookman before USF. While USF has been solid this year, the committee did not rank a single team from the Group of Five. They then beat Florida and Florida State, both of whom are having down years.
Since then, they have lost two of the last three games. They fell by three in a game to Louisville as Carson Beck threw four interceptions. The Hurricanes then defeated Stanford, but fell to SMU last week. It was a 26-20 overtime loss, and another two interceptions from Carson Beck. The inconsistent play and the inability to stop turning over the ball may spell doom for Miami.
History is not on their side
There are a few key facts that suggest history will not be kind to Miami. To begin with, Miami has to win out. No three-loss team has made the playoffs outside of being a conference champion. There is almost no path to an at-large, barring massive chaos to end the season, for Miami to make it as an at-large if they lose again. Miami does have a manageable schedule from here on out. They have Syracuse and NC State at home, but then have road trips to Virginia Tech and Pitt. They will likely be underdogs against Pitt in the final game of the season.
Further, last year may have shown that without a conference title, the ranking for Miami is too low. Only one team outside the original top 12 made it to the College Football Playoff as an at-large without winning their conference. In the history of the playoffs, the lowest-ranked team to make the playoffs without automatic qualifying was in 2014, when Ohio State started ranked 16th.
Finally, the ACC is likely a one-bid league, unless there is an upset in the conference title game. Last season, only in the rankings in Week 12 and Week 13 did the committee have two teams from the ACC ranked in the Top 12. That was Miami and SMU. Miami held onto a Top 12 ranking in Week 13 after its second loss, but would not have made the playoffs. Only four conference champions were ranked in front of them, and one team below them would have knocked them out. It is unlikely that the entire top 12 makes the playoffs. Last year, Alabama was ranked 11th in the final rankings, but was left out due to automatic qualifiers.
The ACC did get two teams in last year, but one was SMU, which had just two losses, with one being in the ACC Championship to Clemson. With no teams currently in the top 12 from the ACC, it is unlikely the ACC will get an at-large bid.
There is a small and narrow path for Miami
The path for the Hurricanes is clear; they have to win the ACC. Miami can still win the ACC, but it is unlikely. The first step is to make the conference title game. At 2-2 in conference play, Miami is currently in seventh place in the conference. To make it to the conference title game, the Canes would need to win out. That would also give them a head-to-head tiebreaker over Pitt.
Virginia does not have a loss in conference play. With a win already over Louisville, they can likely afford a loss, but it would be better for Miami if they win out. That would give Duke a second conference loss. Duke then would need another loss to either North Carolina or Wake Forest, or it would come down to a deeper tie-breaker.
Meanwhile, due to the loss to SMU, Miami would need the Mustangs to lose twice. They still visit Boston College, host Louisville, and then visit Cal. A loss to Louisville would help, but Louisville has also already beaten Miami. This means SMU needs to lose to both Boston College and Cal, while beating Louisville, or Louisville needs to lose to Cal and Clemson while beating SMU.
To make things more complicated, Georgia Tech has just one conference loss. They would need to lose to Pitt and for the Hurricanes to beat Pitt to gain the tie-breaker between those two. It is nearly impossible for everything to go right for Miami, even if they do win out. Furthermore, they would likely then need to win the ACC Championship game, adding another layer to the impossibility.
Does Miami have a chance to make the playoffs? Yes. Will it happen? It is highly unlikely.
