The smell of an unofficial holiday is in the air – the NCAA March Madness tournament is back and this year is going to be crazy. Upsets are what fans root for, many of which are seen within the 12-seed vs 5-seed matchups.

Dating back to 2000, there have been only five years (2000, 2007, 2015, 2018, 2020) where a 12 seed has not won at least one game, and while these upsets don’t usually produce bracket busters that advance far into the tournament, it creates a sense of havoc that fans live for once the calendar switches over to the month of March.

This year, the four 12-vs-5 matchups are just as tough as other years, presenting the higher seeds with a tough draw in their first game in the tournament. While 5 seeds (dating back to 1985) hold a 64.6 winning percentage over 12 seeds, there have been five instances of the 12 seed upsetting their higher-ranked opponent since ‘17.

Here are breakdowns of all four 5-12 matchups in this year’s March Madness tournament.

West Region

(5) UConn [23-9] vs. (12) New Mexico State [26-6]

The West Region has the UConn Huskies facing the New Mexico State Aggies in Buffalo, NY, in what may feel and sound like a home game for the Huskies. As the Aggies look to translate their WAC championship into their first tournament victory since 1993, this matchup presents challenges for both teams.

The Huskies averaged the second-most points, fifth-worst field goal percentage, and second-best three-point percentage in the Big East – AKA their offense is heavily streaky and can experience some cold stretches. Led by guard R.J. Cole and his 15.7 PPG, the Huskies look to be a tough matchup for the Aggies.

New Mexico State is reliant on junior guard Teddy Allen, who leads the team in scoring (19.3) and rebounds (6.8), a classic mid-major squad led by one player and a supporting cast. Shutting Allen down is no easy task for the Huskies but will likely be their focal defensive focus.

Outcome – Allen turns the Aggies into a March cinderella, knocking UConn out early

East Region

(5) Saint Mary’s [25-7] vs. (12) Indiana [20-13]

This matchup was not fully known until Tuesday night, as the winner of the Indiana / Wyoming game moved on to Thursday’s matchup against the Saint Mary’s Gaels.

The West Coast Conference (WCC) sent three members to the tournament this year – Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, and San Francisco, and while everything about Gonzaga is known, the latter two teams are more unknown, but the Gaels are ready to put their name on the board.

For Indiana, they are looking to continue their winning ways in March after having defeated Wyoming in the second game of the First Four. Trayce Jackson-Davis is the key for this team, and his 18.4 PPG, 8.2 RPG, and 59.1 FG% on the year. Having earned their first tournament win since 2016, the Hoosiers also won in head coach Mike Woodson’s tournament debut, but don’t expect this Big 10 team to continue on to the next round.

Outcome – Saint Mary’s turns in a strong performance and advances to the 2nd Round

South Region

(5) Houston [29-5] vs. (12) UAB [27-7]

Fresh off their miracle Final Four run last season, the Houston Cougars enter this year’s tournament as an upside 5 seed, meaning that being put on the 5 line creates a ton of potential matchup advantages for them during each round.

Kyler Edwards and Josh Carlton have been Houston’s leaders this season after both Tramon Mark and Marcus Sasser were lost to season-ending injuries in December. Edwards also suffered a severe ankle sprain and missed some time, but has returned to his regular minutes and looks to be no worse for wear.

The University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) won the automatic bid for winning the Conference USA postseason championship and now are tasked with handling the Cougars. Even as Houston faces their injuries, the Blazers will not have an easy task.

Junior guard Jordan Walker leads this team with 20 PPG and his 40 3PT% makes him dangerous across all levels on offense. As a whole, this team utilizes active hands on defense, averaging just under 10 steals per game.

Outcome – Could be the best 5 vs 12 game of the conference, but Houston will advance after a late run

Midwest Region

(5) Iowa [26-9] vs. (12) Richmond [23-12]

The Iowa Hawkeyes are one of nine teams from the Big 10 that made the tournament this year and are the fourth-highest seed in the tournament from the Big 10. With Keegan Murray leading the Hawkeyes to winning the Big 10 tournament, they enter March on a high.

Murray was one of three players (Johnny Davis, Kofi Cockburn) from the Big 10 named to the AP All-First Team, and Murray is what makes this team go, so if he has a bad game, this team wholeheartedly struggles. Surrounded by sixth-year senior Jordan Bohannon and other shooters and playmakers, this Iowa team is hard to stop, at least on paper.

For the Richmond Spiders, they enter March Madness on a high after winning their own conference tournament, defeating fellow tournament member Davison for the Atlantic-10 crown. Led by junior forward Tyler Burton (16.3/7.7), the Spiders are a strong offensive team with not a lot to speak about on defense. That area is likely going to be this team’s biggest downfall against the Hawkeyes, potentially derailing any sort of plans to advance further in the tournament.

Outcome – Murray score 30+, Iowa rolls, and Richmond goes home early

How many upsets do you think the group of 12 seeds will produce this March Madness? Or will the 5 seeds reign supreme and flex their muscles on the way to the second round?