The Atlanta Falcons have been one of the harder teams to get a read on so far this NFL season, but now their spot in the NFC hierarchy is becoming clearer.
A lot of the uncertainty about the Falcons stems from one result: a stunning 30-0 loss to the Carolina Panthers back in Week 3. However, Raheem Morris and company have built a pretty impressive resume outside of that loss on their way to a 3-2 record through six weeks.
The Falcons opened the year with a close loss to the Buccaneers, a defeat that has aged extremely well as Tampa Bay has raced out to a 5-1 start and has Baker Mayfield playing at an MVP level. Atlanta also picked up wins over the Minnesota Vikings and the Washington Commanders sandwiched around that Panthers loss before a bye in Week 5.
In Week 6, the Falcons put on a show and played some of their best football on a national stage against a Super Bowl contender. They took down the Buffalo Bills 24-14 on Monday Night Football, raising eyebrows around the league and solidifying themselves as a playoff contender.
After that win, quarterback Michael Penix Jr. said the result proves this Atlanta team is “legit” as a playoff contender, and Monday night certainly backed that up. Here's why the second-year signal caller is right and this Falcons team will be one to watch throughout the rest of the season.
Falcons have a lethal running game
Penix is playing under the microscope as a young quarterback as everyone tries to figure out what he is and whether he can be the guy long-term in Atlanta. The jury is still out on that, but the early returns are positive even if there are some inconsistencies.
Zac Robinson has gotten some of the best out of Kyle Pitts this season, and Drake London had a huge game on Monday night and looks like a true No. 1 receiver in this offense. But none of that is possible without the running game, which has become the foundation of this Atlanta attack when it is clicking on all cylinders.
Not only is Bijan Robinson arguably the best running back in the NFL at this point, especially with both Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry struggling to start this season, but the Falcons have the perfect complement to him in Tyler Allgeier. Atlanta's wide zone scheme is one of the hardest running games to stop in football, and the numbers bear that out through six weeks.
Atlanta leads the league in rushing yards per game at just over 150 yards on the ground per contest. Excluding Week 1, where Tampa Bay stopped the run effectively, Atlanta also has the second-highest EPA per rush behind just the Colts. Robinson put up one of the biggest rushing games of anyone this season against the Bills, racking up 170 yards and a touchdown on just 19 carries.
If the Falcons can keep up that efficiency on the ground, it does a few things for the offense. First of all, it keeps the best player on the team involved and gets the ball in his hands time and time again. It will also make life easier for Penix, who will be able to use play-action concepts to find open receivers against defenses that are stacking the box.
Atlanta's defense has improved drastically
While the running game is lethal at this point, the Falcons have been able to lean on the ground attack for a number of years now. What makes this Falcons team feel a bit different is the way that the defense is playing.
The numbers, both from a raw numbers perspective and an efficiency perspective, are excellent for the Falcons at this point in the season. They rank first in total yards allowed per game, sixth in total EPA per play allowed, and fourth in EPA per pass allowed. Defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich's unit also sneaks into the top 10 against the run, so this group is getting it done in all forms and fashions so far.
Over the years, Atlanta has consistently had one of the most toothless pass rushes in football, but that is not the case this season. Ulbrich's group currently ranks third in sack rate and sixth in pressure rate so far this season, but it isn't doing it in a traditional way.
So far this season, the Falcons are blitzing on 44.9% of their snaps according to Next Gen Stats. That is the highest mark in the league, and it is more than NINE PERCENT higher than the second-highest number, belonging to the Minnesota Vikings at 35.8%. Those pressures have been getting home and really bothered Josh Allen on Monday night, and that style makes this Falcons team very difficult to play against.
Blitzing that much is usually unsustainable and could come back to bite Atlanta, especially when it comes to giving up explosive plays. However, it has paid off so far, and it is clearly a strategy that has helped this defense drastically improve this season.
