The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Miami Dolphins meet in a critical Week 17 matchup on Sunday, December 28, 2025, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami with the Buccaneers desperately seeking momentum heading into the final stretch, while the Dolphins have been eliminated from playoff contention. The Buccaneers, despite their recent struggles, enter as 5.5-point favorites with a 7-8 record, while the Dolphins sit at 6-9 and are in transition at the quarterback position following the shocking benching of Tua Tagovailoa. This game represents far more than a late-season divisional clash—it's a defining moment for two franchises headed in opposite directions.

The backdrop of this matchup reveals two teams in vastly different positions. Tampa Bay once looked poised for a playoff push after starting 6-2, but has since spiraled into a 1-6 run that has left fans questioning everything about this roster. Miami, meanwhile, has undergone a quarterback revolution, turning to seventh-round rookie Quinn Ewers to inject fresh life into an offense that has sputtered all season. The stage is set for an intriguing divisional showdown that could reshape the playoff picture.

Baker Mayfield Will Exploit the Dolphins' Vulnerable Secondary and Record Three-Plus Touchdown Passes

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) during the first half against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium.
Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Baker Mayfield enters Week 17 on a mission to prove the Buccaneers' quarterback situation remains viable despite their recent offensive struggles. Throughout the 2025 season, Mayfield has compiled 23 touchdown passes against just 8 interceptions, posting a 90.0 passer rating across 15 games while completing 61.6 percent of his passes for 3,144 yards. His most efficient performances have come in home starts, particularly in Week 5 against Seattle when he torched the Seahawks for 379 passing yards and two touchdowns on a pristine 87.9% completion rate.​

The Dolphins' secondary, hampered by defensive inconsistencies all season, presents an ideal target for Mayfield's rhythm-based passing attack. Miami has allowed 71.49% completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks — the worst mark in the NFL — and struggles significantly against vertical spacing and timing-based route concepts. With Mike Evans back and hungry to make an impact, and with Chris Godwin back to full strength and emerging rookie wide receiver Emeka Egbuka providing multiple receiving options Mayfield will find ample opportunity to dissect the Dolphins' defensive coverage weaknesses.​

Look for Mayfield to convert early critical drives into touchdown passes rather than settling for field goals. The Buccaneers' redzone scoring percentage sits at 54.55%, suggesting they're leaving points on the field in short-yardage situations. Against a Dolphins defense that has surrendered multiple explosive plays throughout the season, expect Mayfield to be decisive early and hit Evans multiple times in stride downfield. Mayfield should exceed his season average with three-plus touchdown passes as Tampa Bay's offense finds its rhythm against Miami's soft secondary coverage.​

Mike Evans Will Return to Form With 130-Plus Receiving Yards and a Touchdown Despite Recent Limitations

Mike Evans' return from a six-game injury absence two weeks signaled a dramatic shift in the Buccaneers' offensive weaponry. In his first game back against Atlanta, the Hall of Fame receiver hauled in six catches on 12 targets for 132 yards despite playing on just a 55% snap share. That performance wasn't merely a stat line — it was a statement that Evans remains the clear focal point of the Tampa Bay passing game when healthy.​

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For the 2025 season in limited action, Evans has recorded 25 receptions for 303 yards and two touchdowns across six games, but more importantly, Mayfield has targeted him on an eye-popping 35% of his pass attempts over the last two weeks. This target distribution underscores exactly how central Evans is becoming to the offense as the Buccaneers navigate their late-season stretch run.​

The Dolphins' secondary, specifically their outside cornerback coverage and safety rotation, has shown vulnerability all season long. Miami just allowed Bengals wide receivers to catch 13 passes for 183 yards and 1 touchdown in Week 16. Evans, with his size, athleticism, and ability to win contested catches in the red zone, presents a nightmarish matchup against the Dolphins' secondary. His return should be viewed as the catalyst the Buccaneers needed to spark their stagnant offense. Evans should get back on track after a down game against Carolina and exceed 130 receiving yards and finds the end zone at least once as the Buccaneers make him a central focus of their offensive game plan.

Quinn Ewers Will Struggle Under Pressure and Throw Two-Plus Interceptions in His Second NFL Start

Quinn Ewers' NFL debut against Cincinnati last week painted a troubling picture for Dolphins fans seeking immediate quarterback salvation. In his first career start, the seventh-round rookie completed 20 of 30 passes for 260 yards but committed two costly interceptions while posting a paltry 66.0 passer rating. Though McDaniel expressed measured optimism about Ewers' ability to manage the position, the reality is far more complex: Ewers faces a Tampa Bay defense that, while it ranks 30th in defensive efficiency, has demonstrated an uncanny ability to generate turnovers despite their overall inconsistency.​

Ewers' fundamental weakness — accuracy under duress and decision-making against disguised coverages — directly aligns with Tampa Bay's defensive strengths. The Buccaneers generated 35 sacks during the regular season and have specifically excelled at creating pressure situations that force young quarterbacks into erratic decision-making. Ewers will face a Miami offensive line that has provided inconsistent protection throughout the season, particularly against Tampa Bay's interior defensive line pressure schemes.​

The rookie's struggles will compound when he faces second-and-long situations that require him to venture beyond his primary read. Defensive coaches who have studied Ewers extensively note that he lacks the processing speed to operate efficiently once his first read closes. Against the Buccaneers' defensive approach—which emphasizes zone-based pressure and disguised coverages—expect Ewers to force multiple bad decisions. Bold prediction: Ewers throws at least two interceptions as the Buccaneers' defense generates consistently disruptive pressure, forcing the rookie into turnover-worthy situations that ultimately define the game's outcome.​