The Buffalo Bills (7-4) venture into the Steel City to face the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) in what figures to be a critical AFC playoff positioning matchup at Acrisure Stadium on Sunday, November 30. With the Bills favored by 3.5 points and holding a 64% win probability according to advanced models, this presents an opportunity for Josh Allen and company to reclaim momentum following a disappointing Thursday night loss to the Houston Texans.
Here are three bold predictions that could define this divisional showdown and propel Buffalo toward their championship aspirations.
Josh Allen Exploits Pittsburgh's Static Secondary Coverage With 300+ Passing Yards and 3 TDs
Josh Allen has proven he can single-handedly win games, even when the supporting cast falters. Pittsburgh's secondary remains a significant vulnerability heading into Week 13, with the Steelers' defense notorious for operating in predictable, easily recognizable coverage shells.
The defense spent an inordinate amount of time in single-high safety looks and Cover 3 last season, rarely disguising their intentions before the snap. This static coverage approach plays directly into Allen's wheelhouse—a quarterback who excels at processing pre-snap reads and exploiting defensive tendencies.
Allen enters the week with 2,709 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, and a 101.6 passer rating through 11 games—putting him squarely in MVP conversation. Against a Steelers secondary that has shown vulnerabilities despite recent adjustments with safeties Kyle Dugger and Jalen Ramsey, Allen should operate with precision and timing.
The Bills' offense under Joe Brady has demonstrated capability to execute high-volume passing attacks when the game script demands it. Expect Allen to dissect Pittsburgh's coverage concepts throughout the afternoon, resulting in a 300+ yard, 3 touchdown performance that establishes early control and prevents the Steelers' inconsistent offense from establishing rhythm.
James Cook Rushes for 140+ Yards, Establishing Ground Dominance Against a Vulnerable Steelers Front Seven
While the Bills' offensive line struggled mightily against Houston, surrendering eight sacks and allowing Josh Allen to get hit 12 times, this Week 13 matchup presents a more favorable rushing opportunity.
The Steelers' defense, particularly their front seven, has shown susceptibility to physical, downhill running games when opponents establish tempo and dictate the line of scrimmage. James Cook, who has demonstrated elite consistency in his rushing attack this season, figures to be the beneficiary of a game plan designed to control clock and keep Pittsburgh's offense sidelined.
James Cook: Josh Allen struggled against a legit Texans D. James Cook did his best to keep the Bills in it, rushing for 116 yds | 1 TD and adding 3/3 rec | 13 yds. Back-to-back top-10 fantasy outings and more to come! He has been awesome! pic.twitter.com/qhVEFQwLN7
— Joshua Cho (@jbchoknows) November 24, 2025
Cook's recent performances showcase his ability to manufacture success on limited opportunities. Beyond explosive plays, he has proven capable of finding yards in short-yardage situations and converting crucial first downs. The Steelers' tendency to miss tackles—they rank second-most in the NFL with 93 missed tackles this season—creates prime real estate for a back with Cook's combination of vision and elusiveness.
A ground-heavy approach will reduce pressure on Allen, limit turnovers, and wear down Pittsburgh's defense. Look for Cook to eclipse 140 rushing yards, establishing Buffalo's offensive identity and dictating tempo throughout four quarters.
Buffalo's Defense Forces 3+ Turnovers, Creating Scoring Opportunities in a Close Contest
Pittsburgh's offense has been plagued by offensive personnel issues, inconsistent execution, and an inability to sustain drives in critical moments. The Steelers have converted late-down situations on just 7 of 165 plays (4%) when facing 7-10 yards to go—the worst rate in the NFL. Additionally, Pittsburgh's passing game remains run-heavy, with the Steelers targeting wide receivers on just 41% of passing attempts, the lowest in the NFL. This conservative approach creates predictability that the Bills' defense can exploit.
The Bills' secondary, particularly with Tre'Davious White and the cornerback rotation, should operate comfortably in coverage against Pittsburgh's limited receiving options. Steelers backup quarterback Mason Rudolph (or whoever starts depending on injury decisions) lacks the consistency and processing speed to succeed against Buffalo's opportunistic defensive scheme.
Combined with Pittsburgh's tendency to force turnovers when operating in unfamiliar territory, expect Buffalo to generate multiple takeaways—likely 3+ turnovers—that translate into additional scoring opportunities. These forced miscues will prove decisive in a competitive AFC contest, ultimately determining playoff positioning as both teams jockey for Wild Card positioning.
