The Dallas Cowboys are 6-5-1 after beating the Kansas City Chiefs on Thanksgiving. They still have a chance at making the postseason after a rough start to the season, thanks to an active trade deadline. The Cowboys play the Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football, needing a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Athletic, ESPN, and DVOA all say that this game is vital for Brian Schottenheimer's squad.
The Cowboys started the season by trading Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers, which was fodder for the anti-Jerry Jones crowd. But after picking up Quinnen Williams at the trade deadline, the defense has improved. And they just needed to take a step forward to give the offense room to cook, which they have taken advantage of. The Cowboys are hot at the right time, headed into a big matchup.
The Athletic is the most bullish on the Cowboys' playoff odds
Heading into Thursday Night Football, the Cowboys have a 23% chance of making the playoffs, according to The Athletic. The collapsing Philadelphia Eagles are a big reason why, as Dallas has a 10% chance of winning the NFC East. That felt impossible after Week 1, when Philly beat Dallas, and they looked like franchises headed in opposite directions. But after beating the Eagles in Week 12, Dallas has a chance.
The Cowboys will need help to win the NFC East, as winning out only gives them a 51% chance to steal the crown. Five wins down the stretch does, however, bring them to a 98% chance of making the playoffs. The game against the Lions is the last chance they have to pick up a head-to-head win against an NFC playoff contender. Their conference games after Thursday are against the Minnesota Vikings, Washington Commanders, and New York Giants.
Even one loss down the stretch sends the Cowboys tumbling out of the playoff chase. Dallas could win their next four games, stub its toe against the Giants in Week 18, and only have a 53% chance.
ESPN has Dallas hanging on by a thread
In ESPN's playoff projection chart heading into Week 14, there are six NFC teams behind the Dallas Cowboys. All of those teams have less than a 1% chance of making the postseason. Dallas is at 18%, the lowest of any team mathematically alive. Meanwhile, the Lions are up at 44% despite being just a half-game above Thursday's opponent.
Beating the Lions is imperative to the Cowboys making the playoffs, no matter which model you are looking at. Not only would they gain the tiebreaker over Detroit, but they would move ahead of Dan Campbell's team in the standings. The Lions are dealing with a lot of injuries again and slipping out of the playoff race.
ESPN and The Athletic agree that the Cowboys have a 10% chance of winning the NFC East. The Wild Card chances are what ESPN diminishes. The Cowboys and Packers tied earlier in the season, which means if Dallas ends with the same win total as the Carolina Panthers, they will still get in despite losing to Carolina. There are multiple paths for Dallas.
DVOA projects a nine-win season
DVOA runs its simulations and assigns ‘mean wins' to each team based on those simulations. That number for the Cowboys is 9.2, which means a 9-7-1 record is likely for Dallas. Even if one of those three wins is over the Lions, they would have plenty of time to win three games and jump Dallas. That would also provide plenty of cushion for the current #7 seed, the San Francisco 49ers, and the Eagles to slip and still make the dance.
The playoff odds are almost exactly the same on DVOA as they are on The Athletic and ESPN. They are at 17% total, 9.5% to win the division, and 7,5% to snag a Wild Card spot. The Cowboys have won three straight games to get into this race, but a 3-5-1 start is still weighing down their playoff odds.
The Cowboys will have two first-round picks in 2026, which could help them add talent to their roster and make a big run at the playoffs next winter. But for now, they have to run the table and likely get some help to return to the postseason. That starts Thursday night against the Detroit Lions.
