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The Houston Texans host the Los Angeles Chargers at the NRG Stadium in Week 4. The Texans aim to bounce back after nearly getting their first win in Week 3. Here are our Houston Texans Week 4 predictions as they take on the Chargers.
A late-game interception by Texans quarterback Davis Mills set up the Chicago Bears' game-winning field goal in Week 3. Houston came so close to earning its first victory of the season, but errors and a lack of rush defense cost them the victory.
When the Chargers come into town this week to face the Texans, they will attempt to avenge a costly loss to Houston in 2021. On offense, the Chargers struggled to get much going against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3 (just 323 total yards), leading to their second straight defeat.
With that in mind, here are our four bold predictions for the Houston Texans in their Week 4 game against the Chargers.
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Chargers week.
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) September 28, 2022
4. Brandin Cooks bounces back with 80+ yards
Wideout Brandin Cooks is one of 22 receivers with at least 25 targets this season, but he has the fewest catches among them with only 13. He has been QB David Mills's top target this season. Cooks has recorded 158 yards on 29 targets.
A relatively big game should be on the way, though, and it may happen this week against Los Angeles. The Chargers' DE Joey Bosa (groin) has been ruled out, and cornerback J.C. Jackson (ankle) may also miss the contest. With both injured in Week 3, the Jaguars had three receivers grab touchdowns. That's a good sign for Cooks, who is looking to put up 80+ catching yards since doing it in Week 1. We believe he should have his finest game of the season.
3. Texans should sack Justin Herbert thrice and pick him once
Chargers QB Justin Herbert's performance versus Jacksonville was nothing short of miraculous, as he made all of the throws asked of him despite his broken ribs. Keep in mind that the focus heading into the season was on Herbert's pre-snap ability. He's had his ups and downs in that area, but so far he has trodden water. Aside from that, consistency has been key to progress. Highlight throws that were seen once or twice a game last year are now happening three or four times in each contest.
He should be wary, though. The Texans have been after the quarterback this season, as they are tied for fourth in the league with 10 sacks, five of which came last weekend against the Bears. They are led by defensive end Jerry Hughes, who has the NFL's second-most sacks (4). The Texans should sack Herbert at least three times in Week 4.
CB Jalen Pitre also had a strong performance in Week 3 He recorded eight tackles, two interceptions, and a sack. In 118 covering snaps, he has allowed just three receptions for 35 yards. Pitre has a lot of importance as a player who is always around the football. He'll make plays in the backfield just as much as he will in coverage. Look for him to pick Herbet in this game.
2. Davis Mills gets 80+ passer rating
Davis Mills, who took over as the starting quarterback in his rookie season and passed for 2,307 yards, 14 touchdowns, and five interceptions, has not sustained that level of success into his sophomore campaign.
Mills currently has 662 yards passing with three touchdowns and two interceptions. He is completing 57.9 percent of his throws, which ranks third worst among starting quarterbacks in the NFL.
In Sunday's loss to the Bears, Mills completed 20-of-32 passes for 245 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Mills was adequate for much of the game, as he distributed targets to several of his pass catchers. He guided the Texans on two touchdown drives, the first of which he finished with a four-yard pass to Jordan Akins. He did, however, throw an interception with little over a minute remaining in the fourth quarter, which led straight to the Bears' game-winning field goal. Mills has 240 yards passing in two of three games this season. However, he has just three touchdowns to show for it.
Looking ahead to Week 4, even if the Chargers are not creating much pressure, Mills is unlikely to take full advantage. Maybe another 240+ yard game, a TD, and one INT for an 80+ passer rating?
1. Dameon Pierce carries the offense with 100+ rushing yards
Dameon Pierce has 183 yards and a score on 46 carries as the starting running back for the Texans. He has recorded 4.0 yards per carry so far this season. Four of the rushes, however, have gained more than ten yards.
It's easy to understand why Texans fans like Pierce. He runs fast and has amazing vision. It's just so much fun to watch. He needs to take better care of the football, though, and if he does, he'll be one of the foundation pieces for this offense for a long time. He's similar to Pitre on the defensive side of the ball.
On the other end of the field, the Chargers' defensive line ranks 32nd in yards allowed before contact. As a result, opposing running backs have punished them time and again.
Despite some injury concerns, Pierce should still have a good game here — maybe his best this season so far. Recall that in Week 3, he out-carried Rex Burkhead 20-3, giving him a 73 percent opportunity share in the Texans' backfield. Pierce can be a major performer on early downs as a rusher in situations when Houston may be competitive or face weak run defenses. We have Pierce playing and going for over 100 rushing yards for the first time this season.
