For the first time since 2011, the New York Giants and Washington Commanders will face each other in Week 1 to begin the 2025 NFL season. Ahead of the marquee matchup, we will break down our Giants-Commanders Week 1 predictions.
The Commanders, who surprisingly went 12-5 in 2024, swept the season series a year ago. Their 21-18 victory in Week 2 gave rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels his first career victory. Washington backed up that performance with another narrow win on the road in Week 9 that capped a three-game win streak.
Before the 2024 season, the Commanders had not previously beaten the Giants since the 2021 season. New York went 3-0-1 in 2022 and 2023, further solidifying its recent dominance in the series.
The results epitomized the two vastly different seasons each team had. The Commanders were arguably the biggest shock of the year after sneaking into the playoffs and making it to the NFC Championship Game. Washington ended the year with a lopsided loss, but it was a significant turnaround after going just 4-13 in 2023.
Conversely, the Giants suffered another losing season, going just 3-14 on the year. After going 2-3 through its first five games, New York ended the year winning just one of its final 12 outings.
The 2025 season will begin a new chapter for both teams. The teams were two of the most aggressive teams in the offseason and will look substantially different in Week 1. The Commanders salvaged what would have been a disastrous summer by extending Terry McLaurin just one week before the start of the 2025 season.
Both teams have reasonably high expectations for the 2025 season and must start the year on the right foot. Before they meet at Northwest Stadium, we will make our Giants-Commanders Week 1 predictions.
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Paulson Adebo smothers Terry McLaurin
Terry McLaurin ultimately received his payday, but it came at a cost of nearly his entire offseason. McLaurin ended up joining the team for its final few practice sessions, but otherwise held out of OTAs, minicamp and training camp while waiting to receive his day in court.
His situation was not unique, and unfortunately, it tends to affect the on-field results. Receivers in similar situations — including Brandon Aiyuk, Tee Higgins and CeeDee Lamb in 2024 — have started the season slowly. Unsurprisingly, missing months of valuable field time tends to disrupt their rhythm in the offense and with their quarterbacks.
McLaurin had one of the best seasons of his career with Jayden Daniels in 2024, but it is not as if they had spent years together on the field. The two have spent just one year together and now have only one week to rediscover their rhythm after being apart for four months.
McLaurin is not only returning from a lengthy layoff, but he is joining an entirely different offense from the one he left. Washington added Deebo Samuel, Laremy Tunsil and Jacory Croskey-Merritt in the offseason and expects to be much more explosive in 2025. While he has been away, the Commanders have been practicing as if Samuel would begin the year as Daniels' top receiver.
In his return, McLaurin could not ask for a tougher matchup. He has struggled against the Giants in the last two years, averaging just 48.8 yards per game in his last five games against New York. McLaurin only had 41 total receiving yards in his two games against the Giants in 2024.
McLaurin will now go head-to-head with star cornerback Paulson Adebo, whom the Giants acquired in free agency. Adebo only allowed 34 receptions on 281 coverage snaps in 2024, according to Pro Football Focus.
The disgruntled star was working out on his own throughout his holdout, but it does not compare to being in the locker room with his team. For whatever reason, the Giants seem to have his number, and the matchup will only get tougher in 2025.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt establishes himself as RB1
When the Commanders used a seventh-round pick on Arizona running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt, nobody even gave it a second glance. It seemed like a throwaway pick, considering the 24-year-old running back played just one game due to eligibility issues in 2024.
Yet, four months after Croskey-Merritt joined the team, Washington already seems committed to him as a staple of its backfield. The Commanders traded Brian Robinson Jr. to the San Francisco 49ers ahead of final roster cuts, seemingly confirming their belief in the rookie.
Croskey-Merritt is not a typical prospect by any means. He spent six years in college, with only one of them at the FBS level. He only accumulated 1,253 rushing yards across four years at Alcorn State, yet broke through with a 1,190-yard season in 2023 with New Mexico.
After thriving in his first season at the FBS level, Croskey-Merritt attempted to move up once more and joined Arizona for the 2024 season. However, due to an eligibility dispute regarding his redshirt season at Alcorn State, Croskey-Merritt only appeared in one game for the Wildcats. He dominated that lone performance, taking his 13 carries for 106 rushing yards and a touchdown.
Given everything he endured, Croskey-Merritt did not seem to have even a fighting chance of making an NFL roster. Yet, here he is entering Week 1 as the best pure runner in the Commanders' backfield.
The Giants' defense improved tremendously over the summer, but the additions mainly benefited their pass defense. New York returns the same linebacker corps that ranked 26th in opponent rushing yards per game and 24th in opponent yards per carry in 2024.
Croskey-Merritt dazzled in the preseason, but he remains an incredibly raw prospect who is uniquely unproven. Regardless, if there is a matchup that will allow him to burst onto the scene, it will be against this Giants defense.
Giants blow out Commanders by 15+ points
The Giants have improved significantly in the offseason, but nobody expects them to win this game. It is hard to deny the Commanders after what they accomplished in 2024, particularly coming off yet another successful offseason. The opportunity remains for Big Blue to make a massive statement to begin the new season.
Coming off his Rookie of the Year campaign, Daniels is determined to prove himself as an elite quarterback in 2025. He might already be there. However, the rest of the offense is a massive question mark.
Not only is McLaurin coming off his contract holdout, but Washington added Samuel after the worst season of his career. Croskey-Merritt looks promising, but they are putting a lot of faith in a backfield comprised of a 30-year-old veteran and a seventh-round rookie who had just 111 career rushing yards against Power Five opponents in college.
Defensively, the Commanders also lost Dante Fowler, who led them with 10.5 sacks in 2024, and longtime captain Jonathan Allen. After taking an obvious offensive focus in free agency, Washington left several holes in its defense.
The Giants are taking several gambles as well. There is no guarantee that Russell Wilson will improve their offense, given the way he imploded during his tenure with the Denver Broncos. New York is also bringing back 10 starters from an offense that ranked in the bottom five in 2024.
However, the additions the Giants made in free agency are safer than those of the Commanders. As a result, they are the deeper team that looked much more put-together than Washington did in the preseason.
Both teams have a lot riding on Week 1, but the Giants have been in a rhythm for months and need the win more. Ensuing matchups with the Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers await them in Weeks 2 through 4. New York believes it will be the surprise team of the year and will prove as much in Week 1.
