The Green Bay Packers have been one of the more inconsistent teams in the NFL so far this season, but they have finally steadied the ship and are clear contenders in a stacked NFC. Green Bay comes into Week 15 on a four-game winning streak and are coming off of back-to-back wins over playoff contenders in the Lions and the Bears.
Now, the Packers are facing arguably their toughest test of the season. Matt LaFleur will lead his squad into the Mile High City for a Week 15 tilt with the Denver Broncos in one of the marquee games on the Sunday slate. The Broncos have been through their ups and downs on the offensive side this year, but they still have one of the best defenses in football.
The Packers should have the upper hand when the Broncos have the ball, as their pass rush can neutralize the quality Denver offensive line and Jeff Hafley has a lot of pitches to throw at Sean Payton and Bo Nix in the back seven. However, this game could be decided when Green Bay has the ball, as two heavyweight units will be going at it.
Denver pass rush will struggle to create negative plays against the Packers
While LaFleur and company still want to lean on the running game to get into positive down-and-distances, the passing game has still been the strength of this Packers attack during their recent winning streak. That will be even more crucial heading into this game with star running back Josh Jacobs' status in doubt. Jacobs has missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday as he deals with a knee injury.
Thankfully for Green Bay, Jordan Love and this high-flying attack should have the advantage in this matchup.
The Broncos' defense is built on getting pressure on the quarterback. Vance Joseph's unit blitzes at the seventh-highest rate in the league (31.8%) and has the fourth-highest pressure rate in football (39.5%). When Denver isn't bringing pressure, star edge rusher Nik Bonitto is dominating tackles on a weekly basis. Bonitto is ranked fifth in the NFL in total pressures (61) and tied for third in sacks (12.5) as he makes his case to be an All-Pro.
On the other side, the Packers are very good at avoiding those negative plays in the passing game. They rank in the middle of the pack in pressure rate allowed, but some of that comes from the fact that they throw the ball downfield a ton. Love has a 2.89-second time to throw, a top-10 mark in the NFL.
Love also ranks eighth in air yards per attempt (8.7), seventh in play action rate (29.2%) and fourth in deep pass percentage (13.7%), defined as passes traveling 20 or more air yards, according to Next Gen Stats. It's clear that the scheme and Love's willingness to push the ball down the field is creating that increased pressure number.
On top of that, Love is one of the best in the league at not taking sacks when he does feel the pressure. His 11% pressure-to-sack rate is the second-lowest mark in the NFL among players with at least 100 pressured dropbacks, according to PFF (Broncos QB Bo Nix leads the league in this stat). His ability to avoid those sacks and negative plays will be a critical part of Sunday's game.
Denver's coverage menu plays right into Green Bay's hands
The Broncos have one of the best secondaries in the league led by reigning Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II. It's very hard to find open windows to throw the ball against Denver, which stands as one of three teams in the league with an average target separation of less than three yards (joining the Lions and Eagles), according to Next Gen Stats.
The Broncos do that by playing a lot of man coverage, which makes sense for a team that blitzes a lot and employs the likes of Surtain and Riley Moss, a quality player even if his reputation has taken a bit of a hit due to penalty issues in 2025. Ja'Quan McMillian is a great nickel corner as well, and rookie first-rounder Jahdae Barron is coming along with more reps as the year goes on.
Denver plays man coverage on 35% of snaps, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL according to Football Insights. Only the Giants, Lions and Browns play more man. Most of those snaps come in Cover 1, but Joseph does mix in some Cover 0 looks at an above-average rate.
Unfortunately for Denver, Love has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league at beating man coverage so far this season. The Packers signal-caller currently ranks second in the NFL in EPA per play against man coverage this season (+0.49) and third in success rate (53.1%), according to Football Insights. Seattle's Sam Darnold leads the league in both categories.
On top of that, Green Bay has a diverse group of pass-catchers and doesn't concentrate its targets toward one guy, which will make it difficult for the Broncos to deploy Surtain against any specific wide receiver. Christian Watson will likely see a lot of Surtain on Sunday, but the Packers have many other options to go to.
Green Bay doesn't yet know which of those options will be available on Sunday, as Matthew Golden, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks were all listed as limited at Thursday's practice. Whoever can go will join Watson and Romeo Doubs in a passing game that should have the upper hand on Sunday based on the matchup.
