If you listen to people who get paid a lot of money, Ben Johnson's Chicago Bears are a legitimate Super Bowl threat. Also, the Denver Broncos seem to qualify. And while there is nothing inherently wrong with those takes, the NFL should stand for the National Fluid League. Just wait. It will change.
Think about what we’ve heard recently. Last week, the Rams were going to blow through to the Super Bowl. Then they got chopped by the Panthers.
Just two weeks ago, the Eagles were on their way to a repeat because their defense looked so awesome. Now, “experts” are claiming they might not even win the NFC East.
And weren’t the Colts everybody’s Super Bowl darlings just a few weeks ago? But who can guarantee they win the AFC South right now?
The best way to view the NFL is to avoid recency bias
If you swallow the recency bias, you’ll have your wagon hitched to Brian Schottenheimer’s Dallas Cowboys. They’ve won three in a row. Their offense is unstoppable. Their defense magically became the best in the world — hyperbole noted for effect — almost overnight. Who can beat the Cowboys?
But when the Eagles beat up the Lions by a score of 16-9, didn’t people say the same things about their defense? And what happened? They got absolutely embarrassed by the Cowboys, unable to hold a 21-0 lead. Then the Bears rushed for 281 yards on 41 carries.
Wait. Did you say 287 yards? Let’s put that in perspective. The worst run defense in the NFL belongs to the New York Giants. They average giving up 157 yards per game. Yep. One hundred and fifty-seven. The Eagles just got torched for 287.
So let’s write the Eagles off, right?
And what about Sean McVay’s Rams? Everybody wanted to gush over the Rams’ defense after they picked off Sam Darnold four times and then stonewalled Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers.
But what happened next? They couldn’t stop Bryce Young when it mattered. Yes, Bryce Young. What happened to the Rams’ defense all of a sudden?
Furthermore, let’s look at the Broncos. Some would say they have the best defense in the NFL. So what happened Sunday night against the Commanders? They allowed a backup quarterback to throw for almost 300 yards.
And if Nik Bonitto didn’t make a clutch and athletic play, the Broncos would have lost. Jeremy McNichols was wide open and would have walked into the end zone for the game-winning 2-point conversion.
The Broncos generated almost no pressure against a suspect Commanders offensive line. Sure, the Commanders chucked a bunch of short passes. But the Broncos weren’t able to clamp down on those passes and force the Commanders to do something different. And it should have cost them the game.
So who are the new NFL darlings?
They are the Cowboys and Texans. Houston has won four in a row and is 7-2 since a 0-3 start. And they’ve won games despite an injury that kept quarterback C.J. Stroud out of the lineup for multiple weeks.
They beat the Colts, right? So if you listen to the whispers, some people are secretly talking about an all-Texas Super Bowl. Never mind the fact that these teams currently have a combined record of 13-10-1. That’s not a Super Bowl record. And that’s the whole body of work.
The point is that teams don’t make it to the Super Bowl based on a few hot weeks. If we get to the end of the reason season and the Texans are 12-5 and the Cowboys are 11-5-1, then we have some bark in the bite of those teams’ postseason hopes.
What is the best way to look at it? Look at the players, the coaches, and the history.
And when you focus on it that way, you cast a wary eye at the Bears. Johnson is off to a great start. But he hasn’t proven himself as a head coach. Caleb Williams has issues, and he’s still a young and maturing quarterback.
Cast a skeptical look toward the Cowboys. They played good defense against a bad Raiders’ team, an Eagles team in offensive disarray that needs a new coordinator, and a Chiefs team whose dynasty is dying on the vine. It’s over in Kansas City.
Next, the Cowboys get a Lions team that will likely be without star receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. It’s another team going the wrong direction. This is a game the Cowboys should win.
The Cowboys have an unproven head coach but a proven quarterback. However, Dak Prescott hasn’t proven himself in the playoffs. So that needs to be under consideration.
And cast a questionable eye at the Texans. This is a team whose offensive line is still a question mark. They rank No. 21 in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. The great defense can only do so much. This team doesn’t appear to be a legitimate postseason threat.
The bottom line?
It’s still the Rams, Eagles, and Packers in the NFC. Perhaps the Seahawks could be in the mix, but they will have to overcome Darnold’s inevitable pressure-game breakdown.
Meanwhile, the 49ers have a good record, but they have too many injuries. And Christian McCaffrey already has a shocking 322 touches. He’s on pace for 422 touches. Given his injury history, when will that last straw land on the camel’s back?
In the AFC, it’s Josh Allen and the Bills. This guy can lift his team to the Super Bowl. The Bills' biggest threat could come from the Patriots, but they have an unproven postseason quarterback and a coach who hasn’t won a lot of postseason games.
The Broncos are a threat, but will quarterback Bo Nix hold them down? The Jaguars, Colts, and Chargers all have 8-4 records. But none of them look like contenders.
Right now, it’s the Rams, Packers, or Eagles — in that order — versus the Bills, Patriots, or Broncos.
But remember. It’s fluid. Check back soon.
