NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 1: Football is finally back!

Put the kids to bed (it’s finally a school night again), get off that political thread on social media, and fire up your sports betting app of choice, because the NFL is back, baby! When the 2025 season kicks off with a banger between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles, all is finally right in the world again because it’s football season. So, without further ado, let’s jump right into the ClutchPoints 2025 NFL Week 1 picks, predictions, and odds column.

Welcome to Year 4 of the ClutchPointsNFL picks, predictions, and odds column. If you are new, or just to refresh your memory, we do this every week picking the winners straight up and against the spread all the way through the Super Bowl.

That means we once again find ourselves 285 games from crowning a Super Bowl champion, and each week we will try to combine our knowledge, data, and studying trends to identify which teams will take home the W each week, or at least look good enough in an L to cover the spread.

For the NFL Week 1 slate, we’ll pick the Thursday nighter, the Friday special edition contest, eight early-window Sunday games, four late-window tilts, the Sunday night slugfest, and the standalone Monday night affair.

Last season, we were 177-108 (62.1%) straight up and 140-140-5 (50%) ATS on the season after a tough last two rounds of the playoffs. In 2023, we went 184-101 (64.5%) straight-up and 150-124-11 (54.7%) with the points.

So, with all that on the table, let’s get right into the NFL Week 1 picks, predictions, and odds.

Courtesy of DraftKings, here are the NFL odds.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)

What a matchup between the Jalen Hurts-led Eagles offense and the Cowboys defense, headlined by the newly re-signed Micah Par- (checks notes) Daron Bland!

Yes, teams often start slow after a Super Bowl, but the Eagles bring back almost everyone from the championship team and should be in it until the end again. We’ll take the Eagles here, but not by over a touchdown in a divisional game.

Pick: Eagles 24-20

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Los Angeles Chargers

The Chiefs showed last season that they can turn it on when they need to—be it late in games or in the playoffs—and still get the job done. While a Super Bowl butt-kicking may have them come out a little more fired up, the AFC West is catching up with the dynastic franchise.

In this matchup, the Chargers have everything to prove, and in Year 2 under Jim Harbaugh, look for LA to be tougher and more physical than they’ve been in years, which spells trouble for KC.

Pick: Chargers 28-27

New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-6)

In the other NFL Week 1 NFC East battle, a team that was excellent last season takes on another with lots of question marks. Still, the Commanders aren’t a sure thing yet heading into Year 2 with Jayden Daniels, and there actually is a lot of optimism around the Giants (especially on defense) heading into the campaign.

While it would be fun to pick a Giants upset, the Commanders should be able to pull this one out. However, with the Giants' D and the experienced Russell Wilson at quarterback, look for the G Men to hang around.

Pick: Commanders 16-13

Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)

This is the “sleeper” game of the week, meaning if it were a standalone night game, I would turn the TV off and go to sleep. Both these teams and No. 1 overall pick QBs are underwhelming, to say the least, and no matter which way this game goes, it won’t be a huge surprise.

Since here in the NFL Week 1 picks, predictions, and odds column, we pick every game, every week, a pick must come, but just know there isn’t a lot of conviction here. We’ll take the Jags to win and the hook for Carolina because it is there.

Pick: Jaguars 21-17

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at New York Jets

Fireman Ed will be fired up for the start of the Justin Fields era in New York, and the Gang Green fans will surely give the disappointing Aaron Rodgers a hearty Bronx cheer, even in New Jersey.

It seems like Fields is a better fit in New York and Rodgers will work better in Pittsburgh, so both teams could be improved this season. Neither is a true contender, though. Give the Steelers the slight edge here, thanks to coaching and experience. That’s while we’ll take them by a field goal or more.

Pick: Steelers 16-10

Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots (-2.5)

There is a lot of hype for Drake Maye’s second season and Mike Vrabel’s first year at the helm in New England. However, the team’s pass-catchers are still lacking, and the defense is wildly unproven.

What is proven is that Pete Carroll and Geno Smith know how to win games together, and the talent on the visiting side of the ball is simply much better here. That’s why the Raiders take this one straight up.

Pick: Raiders 20-17

Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) at New Orleans Saints

I haven’t bought my ticket yet for the Cardinals bandwagon, so you won’t catch me picking them to win the NFC West or even make the playoffs just yet. What I am sold on is that the Saints will be one of, if not the, worst team in the league this year, so at least for Week 1, I will take the Cardinals to roll.

Pick: Cardinals 35-13

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) at Cleveland Browns

Speaking of the worst teams in the league… Browns, come on down! Even Joe Flacco’s competent quarterback play can save Cleveland from losing the Battle for Ohio and losing it decisively.

The Bengals are notoriously slow starters, so I understand if some are on upset watch here, but we trust in Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense to take care of business against such a lowly opponent.

Pick: Bengals 31-9

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)

This is another game between one team that doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence this season and another that is even worse. The Dolphins have a lot of red flags this season, but almost all are health-related. Week 1 should be one (and maybe the only) week health is not a major concern.

For Indy, its top-four draft pick couldn’t beat out Daniel Jones for the starting QB job, which tells you everything you need to know about this team. If you can get Miami getting points, run to it!

Pick: Dolphins: 24-10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons

This is a fun game and a tough one to pick as one of last year’s surprising success stories takes on a Falcons team that seems like it could be this season’s version. If Michael Penix Jr. can build on his solid starts at the end of last season, the Atlanta offense could be excellent in 2025. Baker Matfield and the Buccaneers should still be good, too, so this is a highly watchable game.

The Falcons are a team a lot of pundits like to take the next step and make the playoffs this year. We at the NFL Week 1 picks, predictions, and odds column share that sentiment, and think that path will start with a divisional upset at home.

Pick: Falcons 23-22

Denver Broncos (-8.5) at Tennessee Titans

The Broncos are a trendy deep playoff or even Super Bowl pick in many circles. Bo Nix, Sean Payton, and a killer defense have Mile High fans excited for what could be this season. If they are going to be the team many think they will be, that starts with pounding a rookie QB and a mediocre team in the Titans.

While Cam Ward has a lot of upside, and there is a path for the Titans to be an ascending team by the end of the season, Week 1 doesn’t seem like the time they will so their true potential. Even on the road, the Broncos should cruise here.

Pick: Broncos 27-12

San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks

The 49ers should be able to rebound from their disastrous 2024 season, but they are still missing Brandon Aiyuk for the beginning of the campaign and Deebo Samuel is gone. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are quietly building a tough, physical team on both sides of the ball and could surprise some teams this year.
As you may have guessed, this will be a home dog pick with the NFL’s 12th Man team playing a role in willing their up-and-coming side led by Sam Darnold to a straight-up win.

Pick: Seahawks 16-14

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)

The Lions lost their offensive and defensive coordinators this offseason, but they get back Aiden Hutchinson and many of the players who made them one of the best teams in the league last season. They should still be among the cream of the crop, but the Packers are closing the gap, at least talent-wise.

There is a lot of buzz about the Cheeseheads, and Micah Parsons will make a huge difference this season. This seems like a time to take the points with the Lions, but with 90% of the public money coming in on Detroit, we’ll zag and take the Pack.

Pick: Packers 28-21

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams (-3)

The Rams' preseason has been incredibly disjointed, with injuries to Matthew Stafford and the offensive line putting a damper on the preseason. LA should be close to full strength for the opener, but will they be truly ready for a tough test?

On the other hand, the Texans were slightly disappointing last season, but they made some improvements and should be better on both sides of the ball. If C.J. Stroud can find some of that rookie season magic, too, watch out, AFC.

Pick: Texans 28-24

Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) at Buffalo Bills

The game of the year for the 2025 NFL season may be in Week 1 as the Bills and Ravens run back the thrilling AFC Championship Game. These are two of the best, if not the two best, teams in the league this season, and this game should be electric.

No matter what happens in this game, these two teams will see each other again in early 2026, so the outcome is somewhat insignificant. However, the Bills are kicking off their last season in their current home, and Bills Mafia will boost them to another win.

Pick: Bills 35-34

Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Chicago Bears

This NFC North tilt wraps up Week 1, and it should be a good one. The big question here is, which second-year signal-caller steps up. Will it be Caleb Williams in his second season as a starter or J.J. McCarthy beginning his first season at the helm?

The Bears did a lot to improve this offseason, including bringing in Ben Johnson as head coach, which is a major upgrade. That upgrade, along with Williams’ experience, means the NFL Week 1 picks, predictions, and odds column prediction is a win for Chicago.

Pick: Bears 23-18

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