NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 4: Chiefs vs. Ravens, Micah Parsons Bowl

Week 3 was an absolute rollercoaster ride. Can we expect more of that in Week 4? Well, we’ll start to get an idea on Thursday night, when the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals do battle in an NFC West showdown. So, let’s dig into the ClutchPoints 2025 NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, and odds column.

Things were progressing nicely from a betting perspective in Week 3, right up until about 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday. That’s when all hell broke loose. Picks were sixed, field goals blocked, and, to paraphrase the Red Zone’s Chris Hanson, wins became losses, and losses… well, they pretty much stayed losses.

But that’s OK. It’s the life of an NFL bettor, and we dust ourselves off, learn from our mistakes, and move on to the NFL Week 4 slate.

Here in Week 4, the schedule gets a little funky again as we enjoy the last weekend before bye weeks start. We’ll be treated to a Thursday night game, a 9:30 a.m. ET matchup from Dublin, Ireland, seven 1:00 p.m. ET games, four late window tilts, a Sunday night affair, and not one, but two Monday night showdowns.

As mentioned, Week 3 was a tough one here in the NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, and odds column. We were 7-9 straight up and 8-8 against the spread. That brings us to 32-16 straight up and 26-22 ATS on the season, so we’re still making money both ways!

Previous weeks: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3

So, let’s get right into the NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, and odds.

Courtesy of DraftKings, here are the NFL odds.

Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals

In the earliest weeks of this column, we talked about how we didn’t believe in the Cardinals this season, but we’d take them early because they started the campaign with the Saints and the Panthers. Now, after a loss to the Mac Jones-led 49ers, the Cards get another real team in the Seahawks, and that won’t go well.

The Seahawks can be a little scary, too, with Sam Darnold at the helm, but last week they took care of business when they should, trouncing the Saints 44-13. The transitive property doesn’t always work in sprots betting but give me the team that blew out the Saints over the team that only won by a touchdown.

Pick: Seahawks 16-13

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

International games are hard to predict, since no one knows how teams will react to the unorthodox travel and game schedules. The Steelers haven’t played abroad since 2013, though (a loss to Minnesota, ironically), while the Vikings have played outside the U.S. in 2024, 2022, and 2017.

The unknowns mean this game could be close, but with Carson Wentz’s steady (if unimpressive) hand leading the ship now and the purple defense getting after Aaron Rodgers, we’ll take the Vikes by at least a field goal in Ireland.

Pick: Vikings 24-20

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

After beating them in February, the 2025 Eagles have officially morphed into the 2024 Chiefs. Philly looks bored or maybe just conservative for a good chunk of the game, then miraculously finds a way to pull it off in the end, like they did by blocking the Rams’ game-winning field goal last week.

Last season, we made some hay betting on the Chiefs to win but not cover in almost every situation. So, the NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, and odds column is going to try that again but with the Eagles until we see them motivated to dominate a game, not just play with their food.

Pick: Eagles 28-27

New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills (-15.5)

Welcome to the biggest point spread of the 2025 NFL season! And, honestly, until Week 18, when some teams have completely packed it in, we may not see another game with a number this big.

This seems like betting on those Alabama vs. Southwestern Southeast State games in Week 0 of the college football season, which stink because who knows how the last 10 minutes will turn out when the Tide are up by 60. The Bills will win this one easily, and probably by three scores, but if you bet this one, you may be biting your nails during a late Spencer Rattler or Tyler Shough drive with the Sains down 21.

Pick: Bills 35-12

Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions (-10)

While the Bills vs. Saints game could be a covering blowout, it seems as though conventional wisdom has the Browns keeping it close against the Lions, as they did in Week 1 against the Bengals and Week 3 playing the Packers, who they actually beat flat out.

A week after their first win, you’d think this spread would be closer, so it almost seems like Vegas is begging you to take the Browns’ side of the spread. Also, it looks like the sharp money is coming in on the Lions to cover, so we’ll fade the public here.

Pick: Lions 33-20

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-7)

Man, it’s really hard to have faith that the Texans can beat anyone at this point, let alone by a touchdown or more. The team is struggling on every level, so even what should be a cakewalk against the lowly Titans is a little dicey.

Houston will probably still win this game, but a divisional matchup between a bad team and a team that is struggling seems like it will go down to the wire. That said, Tennessee head coach Brian Callahan has coached like he has money on the other team at times this season, so you never know what bonehead move he’ll pull out next.

Pick: Texans 14-10

Los Angeles Chargers (-6) at New York Giants

It’s the start of the Jaxson Dart era in New Jersey, which means MetLife Stadium will be fired up. We’ll see how long that excitement lasts, as the Chargers' defense is an incredibly hard unit to make your starting debut against.

The NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, and odds column actually has some faith in Dart long-term, but even the best of the best have looked pretty rough in their first NFL start, and the young Giants signal-caller will be no exception.

Pick: Chargers 35-17

Washington Commanders (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons 

It’s still unclear if Jayden Daniels will play on Sunday, but we saw Mariota get the job done in his stead last week. What we saw from the Falcons last week was hot garbage, so it’s understandable if the public is down on Michael Penix Jr. and company.

Last week was a divisional game for the Falcons, though, and this week they are home and hopefully motivated to prove they are not as bad as they looked. Also, the rookie pass-rush tandem of James Pearce Jr. and Jalon Walker are legit, and will make life tough for whichever QB is in there.

Pick: Falcons 24-21

Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-4.5)

Let’s not overreact to one week out here, everyone. Yes, the Panthers smacked around the Falcons last week, but that kind of thing happens every season, especially in divisional games, and then both teams go back closer to where we thought they were.

Ultimately, the NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, and odds column doesn’t love the Patriots and wishes this spread was a little closer to a field goal, but we’ll take the home team to win by a TD in the end.

Pick: Patriots 21-14

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)

The Rams face off against another undefeated squad this week after their heartbreaking loss to the Eagles in Week 3. This should be an excellent game that could go either way, so it feels like this is Vegas still not believing in the Colts enough.

These may not be Super Bowl contenders, but they already look like legit playoff teams, so this should be a close game. We’ll take the Colts with the points, and if you think the underdog can cover, you should think they could win, too. Colts go 4-0, baby!

Pick: Colts 28-27

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)

The Jaguars are 2-0 at home this season and 0-1 on the road. Now, they travel to San Francisco in Week 4 to take on a 49ers squad that keeps finding ways to win, despite the mounting injuries. Brock Purdy could be back this week, and we know that, sadly, Nick Bosa is out for the season. Is that enough for the Jags to win here?

The official stance of the NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, and odds column is that we don’t believe in the Jaguars yet, especially away from home. At some point, the Niners might fold under the injury adversity, but it won’t be this week.

Pick: 49ers 19-14

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

Who had the Chiefs and Ravens coming into their NFL Week 4 showdown with a combined 2-4 record? Probably not many. There is a ton of season left to go, so the loser isn’t out of it by any means, but dropping to 1-3 will be gutting to one of these fan bases.

This bet comes down to the fact that there have been and will be precious few spots during the Patrick Mahomes era when you can get him as a home dog. It’s hard to truly believe in the Chiefs as a football team right now, but we will give Mahomes the benefit of the doubt that he still has that aura in Arrowhead.

Pick: Chiefs 33-32

Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5)

Ben Johnson got in his bag last week and pulled out all the stops to get the Bears off the schneid in their beatdown of the Cowboys. Does this mean Caleb Williams is now destined for long-term success? We’re not ready to go that far. What we will say is that Johnson’s bag is deep, and there is more in there for Week 4.

Pete Carroll and the Raiders, on the other hand, are one of the most disappointing teams in the league this season, and after rolling over to the Marcus Mariota-led Commanders last Sunday, it’s hard to see them putting up a fight against the Bears.

Pick: Bears 27-10

Green Bay Packers (-7) at Dallas Cowboys

The Micah Parsons Bowl will be one to watch this weekend, although it may not be much of a game. Yes, the Packers coughed up a silly one last week to the Browns, and now they are on the road, but the Cowboys are a mess. Parsons will turn up for this one and make Dak Prescott’s life tough. This could, and maybe should, be another tough watch for Dallas fans.

Pick: Packers 30-19

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3)

Good thing there are two Monday night matchups this week, because a standalone Jets/Dolphins game could be an absolute snoozefest. Both these teams may be 0-3, but they are different 0-3s. The Jets should feel much better about their three losses, as the Buccaneers and Steelers losses were better games than expected. The Dolphins have only looked decent against the Bills, and that was a weird Thursday divisional game.

Aaron Glenn seems like a pretty good coach so far, and the team is getting decent QB play from Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor. That’s more than Miami can say, so we’ll take the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets.

Pick: Jets 21-20

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-7.5)

The Broncos haven’t lived up to expectations yet, as they’ve lost to the Colts and the Chargers and played much closer to the Titans than expected. Four weeks in, though, maybe LA and Indy (and maaaaybe even Tennessee) are better than we thought.

If the Broncos have any hope this season, they need to make a statement on Monday Night Football against the banged-up and floundering Bengals. The NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, and odds column thinks this will be Broncos by a lot, and if not, they are in more trouble than we initially thought.

Pick: Broncos 28-12

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