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With Kellen Moore landing in New Orleans, the NFL coaching-hire circuit is complete for the 2025 season. Pete Carroll to the Raiders also fits the mold. And now it’s time to make a prediction and rank the seven 2025 NFL head coaching hires.
This kind of ranking is difficult because there are behind-the-scenes issues that may impact the amount of success a coach can have right off the bat. Then again, sometimes a head coach ignores those issues and wins anyway. See Washington Commanders head coach Dan Quinn for a 2024 example.
But let’s take a look at how things rank with coaching hires in the middle of February.
Where did Saints' new head coach, Kellen Moore, wind up?
Remember, this ranking is based on how these coaches will fare mainly in 2025. And also, how steady they will look moving toward the 2026 season.
No. 1
Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears
One thing Johnson will have to overcome is the front office. But Johnson is the spot-on hire for a team that has Caleb Williams as the franchise quarterback.
Williams needs plenty of work to improve upon his rookie season. It’s not that he played poorly all the time. But he is supposed to be elite. For him to reach that level, Johnson is the right guy to lead him. Any coach that can get what Johnson got out of Jared Goff is good for a quarterback with the talent of Williams.
The pairing of Johnson and Williams is the only reason he is ranked No. 1 in this article. It doesn’t mean he won’t do well in other aspects of the job, but he has a chance to hit the ground running because of Williams.
Plus, the Bears have a chance to weaken the Lions. Unless Detroit gets fortunate and hires an offensive coordinator almost as good as Johnson, the Lions’ offense will suffer. And that gives the Bears a better chance.
First-year prediction: 11-6
No. 2
Brian Schottenheimer, Dallas Cowboys
OK, OK. How could Schottenheimer be this high on the list? It’s simple. He has more inherent advantages than anybody on this list. The only guy close is Ben Johnson.
So, the truth of the matter is that Schottenheimer could be a poor NFL head coach, and he will still win games. Dallas has Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Micah Parsons, and others. It would be hard not to win quite a few games unless the team is hit by the same degree of injuries the 2024 squad suffered.
Of course, when it matters most, that’s when Schottenheimer may be in trouble. Time will tell. He’s an unknown at this point, but he’s old enough to succeed. And he comes from a coaching lineage. It’s not the awful hire many NFL “experts” are making it out to be.
First-year prediction: 10-7
No. 3
Pete Carroll, Las Vegas Raiders
Before scoffing at Carroll being No. 2 on this list, understand the level of dropoff from the No. 1 spot. There’s something wrong with every coaching hire on this list. And it’s not always the coach’s fault.
For Carroll, the problem is his age. He will be 74 years old shortly after the season begins. Yes, he has been a great coach. Eventually, the game passes by, and your ideas and approaches don’t work anymore. Carroll gets respect the minute he walks into the locker room. The problem is that the respect only lasts until the first losing streak. Then it’s gone, probably for good.
Here’s the rub for the Raiders. They want to win, and win big. Carroll will likely deliver what he finished his Seahawks career as: anywere from 7-10 to 10-7. That’s not going to make the fans happy.
The biggest problem Carroll has is the division. The Raiders don’t have a quarterback, and the other three teams are loaded. Carroll will likely only last two years in Las Vegas.
First-year prediction: 8-9
No. 4
Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots
Considered an elite in-game coach, Vrabel should help the Patriots win their share of close games. And in the NFL, that’s good enough by itself to chase the .500 mark.
Vrabel has a nice quarterback situation with which to work. And he’s the type of coach who can keep Drake Maye on an even keel. This looks like the kind of year where the Patriots are the team nobody wants to play. Expectations will be to beat them, but Vrabel will get his team to fight and claw. Teams will not fall victim to Patriots’ upsets, but will also struggle in the week after because of the physical nature of the way the Patriots will play.
In the long term, Vrabel could turn the Patriots back into a playoff contender consistently. But it will be slow steps.
First-year prediction: 8-9
No. 5
Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars
This is the wild-card spot. Coen might strike a vein in Trevor Lawrence and gold rush the Jaguars into a playoff team. But there’s just something icky about the way he got the job. Sneaking around. Stringing out the Buccaneers. Covert interviews.
And then Coen has to walk into an NFL locker room and convince 53 men that he’s on the up and up and has their best interests at heart. That snicker you heard just came from an offensive lineman with a locker in the corner. Yes, this has disaster written on it.
But … if Coen finds a way to get consistency out of Lawrence, maybe the still-young quarterback could nurture the locker room, and the team could win, and … nah.
First-year prediction: 7-10
No. 6
Aaron Glenn, New York Jets
This is actually a good hire. Glenn reportedly connects well with his players and could bring a Dan Quinn vibe to New York.
However, this is the NFL. A team needs a quarterback to win football games. Right now, the Jets’ decision (Glenn’s decision) to move on from Aaron Rodgers makes Glenn’s first year problematic. Tyrod Taylor is currently the starting quarterback. That’s not a good thing. He’ll be 36 before next season starts, and his career record of 28-28-1 explains who he is.
There’s no quarterback in the draft that offers high potential for a quick fix. And let’s face it, the Jets ownership isn’t going to be patient. There’s no way the Jets will bring back Sam Darnold. So that leaves Justin Fields. See, things aren’t looking great for Glenn in 2025.
First-year prediction: 6-11
No. 7
Kellen Moore, New Orleans Saints
Yes, the Saints' roster and cap situation is the problem here. But there are also elements of disaster written on this hire.
Moore is 35 years old, and it’s hard to imagine similar-aged players will have much respect for a guy who had one year of playing experience and moved into a head coaching role after only six years in the league.
Yes, Moore has been tremendously successful as an offensive coordinator. His teams have finished in the top four of points scored in four of his six seasons. But let’s remember the Cowboys had Dak Prescott and a loaded offense, the Chargers had Justin Herbert and a loaded offense, and the Eagles had Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, and a loaded offense. There’s no evidence that Moore can get things done at an elite level without elite talent.
The good news is the Saints have offensive weapons like Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara. But quarterback Derek Carr is overpaid and coming off a mediocre season. Plus, the Saints are over the cap, which means reinforcements aren’t coming.
Moore has never tried to navigate a locker room when the seas are choppy. If the Saints get hit by any significant injuries on the offensive side of the ball, this ship could sink fast.
First-year prediction: 5-12