The New England Patriots are one win away from their eighth trip to the Super Bowl in the legendary Tom Brady/Bill Belichick dynasty. It’s a testament to the franchise’s unbelievable consistency and dominance that they’ve managed to remain perennial contenders for nearly two decades.

But according to Neil Paine of FiveThirtyEight, this year’s Patriots have been the beneficiaries of some especially good fortune by getting the “easiest” pair of opponents since the current playoff format was implemented in 1990.

According to our Elo ratings, which estimate a team’s strength at any given moment, the Pats will have faced the easiest pair of opponents of any conference title-game participant with a first-round bye since 1990 (when the NFL established its current playoff structure). …

If we multiply together the Patriots’ pregame odds of beating the Titans (85 percent) with that of the Jaguars (81 percent), we could say they had a staggering 69 percent chance of making the Super Bowl before they ever played a game.

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Paine goes on to point out how weak the AFC was this season. The Pittsburgh Steelers looked like the clear second-best team behind the Patriots and were seemingly on a collision course with New England for an AFC championship rematch all season. However, they were upset by the Jacksonville Jaguars in the divisional round.

But while the numbers favor the Patriots, it would be foolish to underestimate the Jaguars and their ability. Their defense is obviously among the very best in the league, and with question marks lingering about the true extent of Brady’s hand injury, they still have a puncher’s chance of upsetting the Patriots and their “easy” path to the Super Bowl.