The Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter Sunday's showdown against the Buffalo Bills in a position to capitalize on one glaring weakness that has haunted the Bills' defense all season: their historically porous run defense. Both teams come into Week 11 sitting at 6-3 records, but the Buccaneers' path to victory runs directly through Buffalo's struggling linebacker and defensive line corps, which has become increasingly vulnerable as the season progresses.
The Bills' defense ranks 31st in yards-per-carry at 5.5 yards allowed per rush attempt, a stunning statistic that reveals the fundamental breakdown in their run-stopping ability. This isn't just a surface-level problem—it's structural. The Bills rank dead last in both yards before contact per carry and yards after contact per carry, indicating that the issue stems from poor execution at the line of scrimmage combined with ineffective tackling at the second level. Miami's ground attack exposed this vulnerability ruthlessly in Week 10, rushing for 197 yards and averaging 6.2 yards per carry in a dominant 30-13 victory that left the Bills looking lifeless.
Rachaad White Must Be the Lead Weapon
With Bucky Irving sidelined due to multiple injuries, Rachaad White emerges as the focal point of Tampa Bay's offensive strategy against this vulnerable Buffalo defense. White has carried the load during Irving's absence, and while his 3.3 yards-per-carry average over the past four games isn't eye-popping, the opportunity awaiting him in Buffalo is precisely what his contract year demands. The Buccaneers must make a concerted effort to pound the football early and often, establishing the run and dictating tempo.
What makes White's potential breakout even more realistic is Buffalo's defensive construction. Linebacker Terrell Bernard has looked overwhelmed this season, missing tackles at an alarming 18 percent rate, while the interior defensive line—anchored by Ed Oliver and company—continues to fail at maintaining gap integrity. These aren't elite defenders; they're vulnerable targets waiting to be exploited. If the Buccaneers' offensive line can fire off the snap with purpose and create movement up front, White should have significant running lanes. Each productive running play softens the Bills' secondary and takes pressure off Baker Mayfield to carry the entire offensive load.
Establishing the Run Early Sets Up the Play-Action Game
Beyond the immediate yardage gains, Tampa Bay's commitment to the ground game unlocks explosive opportunities through play-action and bootlegs. The Bills' pass rush, while respectable with names like Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa, becomes far less effective when defensive linemen are preoccupied with controlling the line of scrimmage against the run. When Buffalo's defense stacks the box to stop White, Mayfield finds openings downfield to receivers like Emeka Egbuka and Tez Johnson.
The Buccaneers should attack this matchup with ruthless efficiency. Miami just showed the blueprint by attacking the Bills' run defense with ferocity, and Tampa Bay has all the tools to execute a similar game plan. White, Sean Tucker, and company need carries in the teens minimum to establish dominance. Every successful handoff compounds Buffalo's defensive problems and eats clock—something that plays directly into the Buccaneers' favor as an away team facing a crowd in Orchard Park.
The Bills rank 11th in rushing defense overall, but their ability to stop the run has deteriorated significantly as injuries and ineffective linebacker play have mounted. Sunday presents the perfect opportunity for the Buccaneers to impose their will early, stay ahead of the chains, and control possession. If Tampa Bay can ride White and the run game successfully, the Bills' loaded offense never gets the opportunity to establish rhythm.
This matchup boils down to execution. The Bills have a critical weakness; the Buccaneers have the means to exploit it. Whoever wins the battle in the trenches will likely win the game, and that battle favors Tampa Bay if they commit to the running game early and often.
