The Montreal Canadiens have the greatest history of achievement in the National Hockey League with 23 Stanley Cup titles. That assessment does not provide much satisfaction to head coach Martin St. Louis because the team has not won the Stanley Cup since 1993.
St. Louis is in his fifth season as head coach of the Canadiens, and he has led the team back to respectability and playoff contention. The Habs made the playoffs last year for the first time since the Covid season of 2020-21 and they appear to be better and more dangerous this year.
However, in the highly competitive Eastern Conference, nothing is guaranteed at this point in the season. The Canadiens could finish as high as second place in the Atlantic Division if they play their best hockey in the last 14 games of the season, but if their goaltending disappoints or they fail to take advantage of their goal-scoring opportunities, they could find themselves on the outside of the playoff structure looking in.
Canadiens have the offensive skill to make a run in the playoffs
However, most observers believe the Canadiens have the creativity and the firepower to maintain their playoff position.
Montreal has multiple high-level offensive stars including Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson, Juraj Slafkovsky and Ivan Demidov who can come through when the key games are on the line.
They also have key supporting players including Noah Dobson, Mike Matheson, Oliver Kapanen and Josh Anderson who can come through in a supporting role. The goal scoring should be there in the season's most crucial stage.
However, the goaltending may not be and that's the biggest issue. Sam Montembeault (3.43 goals against average, .873 save percentage) was expected to be the No. 1 goaltender at the start of the season and he has been a major disappointment. Jakub Dobes has been satisfactory as the No. 2 goalie, but he does not appear to be a No. 1 type. That title may eventually fall to 21-year-old Jacob Fowler, but he does not appear to be ready to claim the starting job at this point in his career.
The ideal spot for the Canadiens at the end of the regular season would be finishing in second place in the Atlantic Division to the surging Buffalo Sabres. However, that's not enough. They are four points behind the Tampa Bay Lightning at this point, as are the Boston Bruins and Detroit Red Wings.
If the Canadiens have home-ice advantage and are playing the Lightning, that is not the ideal scenario since the Lightning are so talented and dangerous. However, Tampa Bay has not been playing its best hockey since the return from the Olympic break, and its possible the Lightning could finish outside the top three spots in the Atlantic Division.
If that happened and the Canadiens got to host the Bruins or the Red Wings in the first round, that would be the ideal playoff scenario.
Canadiens have a speed edge on Bruins
Lining up in the first round against the Boston Bruins would not be an easy situation for the Canadiens, but it probably would be their best first-round matchup.
The Canadiens have beaten the Bruins in two of three meetings this season. Boston took the first game between the two teams as the Bruins earned a 3-2 decision in November at the Bell Centre, holding off a late Montreal rally for the victory.
However, when the two teams met at the TD Garden in late December, the Canadiens reeled off five straight goals after trailing 2-1 after the first period to take a 6-2 triumph. The Bruins would win 13 straight victories at home after that loss.
Montreal also won a 4-3 overtime decision at the Bell Centre in mid-March.
Speed is the decisive factor for the Canadiens, as the Bruins have had a difficult time contending with Caufield, Hutson, Slafkovsky and Demidov. Once those players gain a half-step in the neutral zone or in the offensive zone, it is difficult for players like David Pastrnak and Charlie McAvoy to catch them.
However, the Canadiens would not want to get involved in a physical game with Boston because that would play into the hands of the Bruins.
Canadiens could also gain an advantage over the Red Wings
The Red Wings also have a chance to finish in one of the top three spots in the Atlantic Division. If the Habs finished in second and the Red Wings finished in third, the Canadiens would have home ice in the series. That might be enough to secure the series for the Canadiens.
Montreal would clearly have to contend with snipers like Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane, but Caufield, Suzuki, Hutson and Slafkovsky would have just a bit more firepower.
Both of these teams are close — as evidenced by their positions in the standings — and home ice could be the determining factor. The Habs would get the seventh game at home if they finished in second, and that could mean the difference in the series.
The ideal playoff scenarios for the Canadiens would involve first-round matchups against the Bruins or Red Wings, with the Canadiens holding home-ice advantage in either series.
