The San Diego Padres were one game above .500 heading into the 2024 MLB All-Star break. That was a month ago. Now, the red-hot Padres are 67-53, tied with the Diamondbacks for the first National League Wild Card and 3.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West.
For a team that's 17-4 since the break, it would be nit-picking to raise any concerns around the club. But this is baseball, and teams go through ups and downs. During this highest of high times that San Diego is experiencing, its bullpen has transformed into one of the best in the game, hitters up and down the lineup are contributing, and they are finding ways to win close games. Seven out of their 17 wins in the past month have come by one run.
With more than 40 games left on the schedule, here's what the Padres need to sort out before they begin their postseason run.
The Padres need to know what to expect from Yu Darvish and Fernando Tatis Jr.
Every team has injuries. Every team needs to adjust on the fly depending on who's available on a particular day. The Padres are in an odd situation with Darvish, however. After missing time earlier in the season with injuries, Darvish has been on the restricted list since July 6 as he tends to a family matter.
While there's no definitive timeline for Darvish's return, he threw live batting practice at a local high school over the weekend, indicating he's trying to ramp back up. The Athletic's Dennis Lin reported that Darvish “appeared healthy and in good form.” Lin added that Darvish has not yet informed the Padres whether he plans to pitch again this year.
If he does return, the Padres will get a huge boost to their rotation. Dylan Cease and Michael King have anchored the San Diego rotation and the addition of Darvish would be critical in a playoff series where one of your top three will have to start a game on the road.
Tatis' situation is a little more conventional. He's been out since June with a stress fracture in his right femur, which the team feared at first would cost him the rest of the season. The injury, however, was not as severe as initially thought and he has been working his way back. The San Diego Tribune reports that the team believes Tatis will return in September, but when he does, the femur will not have fully healed.
We don't know who the third-best Padres starting pitcher is
As great as Dylan Cease and Michael King have been, they're not going to be enough to carry the Padres to their first World Series since 1998. The two of them have combined to pitch a grand total of 4.2 playoff innings in their careers and King has never started a postseason game.
Additionally, it would be foolish to count on Darvish for anything at this point. So, assuming he either does not return or is ineffective when he does (given how much time he's missed), the Padres need someone else to step up. They got Joe Musgrove off the Injured List on Monday to promising results. In 4.1 innings against the Pirates, he gave up two hits and no runs on 63 pitches. His first 10 starts (pre-injury) were largely ineffective, but Musgrove has proven enough in his career to demonstrate that he can be a reliable starting pitcher.
Matt Waldron flourished in the middle part of the season, going 6-3 with a 1.95 ERA between May 11 and June 24. His eight starts since then, however, have been rough. He has a 5.19 ERA in that time with two starts in which he's given up five runs.
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