The San Diego Padres very nearly pulled off an unlikely run to the World Series in 2022, and while they came up short in the NLCS against the Philadelphia Phillies, it's clear that they are intent on maximizing their championship window. You can see as much thanks to the moves that they have made throughout the offseason.
The Padres proved they meant business at the 2022 trade deadline when they swung massive deals that netted them star players such as Juan Soto, Josh Hader, and Josh Bell. Considering all the talent they had on their roster beforehand, and the fact they will be getting Fernando Tatis Jr. back in 2023 after he missed all of last season, it's clear that the Padres are going to be a World Series favorite.
San Diego has further reinforced that notion this offseason, and it looks like they will be going toe-to-toe with the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West. And while they have made some big moves this offseason, there is some real risk associated with the deals they have made, so let's take a look at the riskiest move the Padres made this offseason and see why that's the case.
Padres riskiest offseason move: Giving Xander Bogaerts an 11-year deal
Easily the biggest move the Padres made this offseason involved signing former Boston Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts to a massive 11-year, $280 million deal in free agency. Bogaerts has quietly become one of the best all-around shortstops in the game, and he is just another bat in an already stacked lineup.
The Padres biggest deal also happens to be their riskiest deal, and it's not exactly hard to see why. The star-studded shortstop free agent class all got massive deals in free agency, but with Carlos Correa officially signing a six-year deal with the Minnesota Twins, that means that Bogaerts got the longest deal of the bunch. Bogaerts also happens to be the oldest player in the group of shortstops who were available this offseason.
Bogaerts is already 30 years old, so right off the bat, the 11-year deal here takes him through his age 41 season, which means Bogaerts will be earning a lot more money than he should be earning when he's 41. Not many players are productive once they make it to their mid-to-late 30s, and while we don't know if Bogaerts can be an outlier here, taking a chance that he is an outlier is, well, a risk.
It's not that Bogaerts has shown any signs of regression, because he hasn't. He put together another strong season with the Red Sox in 2022 (.307 BA, 15 HR, 73 RBI, .833 OPS) and even improved his one area of supposed weakness, which was his fielding at shortstop. Right now, there aren't many holes to pick in Bogaerts' game.
In the short-term, there's no denying that this deal will make the Padres a better team. Bogaerts joins a lineup that will now be led by himself, Soto, Tatis, and Manny Machado, and it's tough to find a group of four hitters that are as talented as that group right there. San Diego is going to be a very dangerous team for at least 2023, and maybe longer if they can manage to keep Machado around for more than the upcoming season.
But in the long-term, this is an extremely risky deal. The Padres aren't paying Bogaerts to help them win a World Series at the backend of this deal, but this is money that they are going to have to pay him when he almost certainly will not be worth it. There aren't many players worth $25 million a year in the MLB, let alone when they are 41 years old, which is what Bogaerts will be getting paid all the way in 2033.
If Bogaerts doesn't help the Padres win a World Series in the next five or six years, this deal will go down as a loss. Not only is 11 years an absurd figure to hand Bogaerts, but the money is ridiculously overpriced considering how long of a deal this is. Bogaerts needs to help San Diego win a championship, or else this whole operation will just have been a huge waste of money.
For now, there's a lot of excitement surrounding the Padres, and why wouldn't there be; they have maybe the most talented roster in the entire league. The cost of winning is high, but the cost of losing is even higher, and if the Padres don't win with Bogaerts on their roster, there will be a steep price to pay, not just in money, but likely in front office executives losing their jobs because of this deal. Bogaerts' deal is a huge risk for the Padres, and now it's time to find out whether or not this is a risk that will pay off for them.
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