The Winter Meetings wrapped up on Wednesday, and by late Wednesday night, pretty much everyone was departing from San Diego. One person who wasn't was Xander Bogaerts. Bogaerts (who was actually in Phoenix watching the Suns take on the Boston Celtics in the NBA) provided one last big bang for the Winter Meetings when he signed a massive 11-year, $280 million deal with the Padres.
This was a shocking deal, as there had been reports building that Bogaerts was nearing a return to his longtime club in the Boston Red Sox. But the Padres, after missing out on Trea Turner and Aaron Judge, turned their attention to Bogaerts, and made him an offer that he simply couldn't refuse. As a result, Bogaerts is now a Padre.
Regardless of your thoughts on the deal itself, it's clear the Padres are looking to make a statement this offseason. After a wildly aggressive trade deadline, San Diego is back pulling off every aggressive move they can in free agency. And with Bogaerts locked up until he's 41 years old now, it's clear that it's World Series or bust for the San Diego Padres now.
The Padres have to win a World Series to justify signing Xander Bogaerts
Let's start with the deal itself for Bogaerts, which, as we just saw, is massive. Bogaerts is already 30 years old, and this deal will see him remain with the Padres until he is 41 years old. He had deals on the table that were shorter but offered him more money per year during that time, but Bogaerts saw through the smoke and recognized he likely wouldn't be able to make over $25 million anywhere else when he was 41 years old.
There's almost no chance that Bogaerts will be worth this deal by the time he turns 41, and even then, he may not make it through half of the 11 years playing at his peak productivity. This is a huge risk for San Diego, and while Bogaerts hasn't shown any signs of regression, they are going to need him to play at an extremely high level late into his 30s for this deal to look like a win.
Bogaerts profiles as a player who could age well, as he's a fantastic contact hitter who always seems to find his way on base. Bogaerts' power production is volatile to say the least, but if Bogaerts can hit .300 towards the end of this deal, you won't really be able to complain with that. Whether that's an attainable goal is a completely different story, though.
The other obvious way for San Diego to justify this deal is to win a World Series. Aside from Bogaerts, the Padres have massive contracts on their books for Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, and another one coming soon for Juan Soto. This lineup was already dangerous, and they just got even more deadly with Bogaerts' steady production balancing everything out. That's easily the scariest foursome of hitters in the league right now.
Considering how much has been invested in the starting lineup, it's tough to see San Diego laboring through the regular season like they did last year when they barely snuck into the playoffs as the fifth seed before making a run to the NLCS. Their pitching staff is still solid, but that's likely the next area A.J. Preller and the front office will target.
An investment like this needs to see a payout relatively soon, though. The Bogaerts deal isn't going to win the Padres a World Series in ten years; it's going to have to win them a title within the next three to four years, or else it will go down as a complete waste. It's hard to say this isn't an overpay right off the bat, so the Padres are going to have to win early and often to prove detractors wrong.
San Diego already has Tatis locked up for the next decade alongside Bogaerts, and while they aren't necessarily in a rush to hand Soto a long-term deal now, he will likely be spending the foreseeable future with the Padres. Machado could opt out of his deal after the 2023 season, which poses an interesting question in the future, but that shouldn't take away from the squad San Diego will trot out onto the field next season.
The 2023 season offers the Padres their best shot at winning a championship, and it's World Series or bust for the next few seasons in San Diego as a result of this massive deal for Bogaerts. There's some skepticism surrounding it right now, and rightfully so, but if the Padres dominate like they are expected to, it ultimately won't matter. But if they can't win, this team could be in a lot of trouble within five years or so.
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