A year after a shocking upset as a number-one seed, the Purdue Boilermakers are once again one of the best teams in college basketball. Purdue is 28-3 on the season and set to earn another one-seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Zach Edey is the overwhelming favorite for the national player of the year and the big man is flanked by the best supporting cast during his time in West Lafayette. The goal now for Purdue is to make a March Madness run. The Boilermakers have not made it past the Sweet 16 since 2019 and their last two exits came against a 15-seed and then a 16-seed.

Can Purdue overcome that hump this year? This year's team is 10 points better per 100 possessions on offense and just as solid defensively, leading to possibly the best squad of the Matt Painter era. With Final Four aspirations, here is Purdue's nightmare March Madness bracket scenario.

An early matchup against a team that forces turnovers and shoots well from three

Slowing down Zach Edey does not seem to factor into Purdue's success this year. Matt Painter's team lost this year when Edey scored 35 points and when he scored 15 points. Purdue has also won against Illinois when Edey scored just 10 points.

The common thread between Purdue's three defeats this year is too many turnovers offensively and strong three-point shooting by their opponent. The Boilermakers' turnover margin in defeats this year is -9 while opponents are shooting 48% from deep in these contests.

Hot three-point shooting is always possible in a volatile sport such as college basketball, but the turnover issue continues to exist for Purdue. In the NCAA Tournament last year, Farleigh Dickinson forced Purdue to turn the ball over 16 times in a 64-possession game in a shocking First Round defeat.

Purdue upped its tempo by four possessions per game this year, helping negate some of those turnover issues. But while the Big Ten champs don't have any games with an abnormally large number of turnovers like last year, they are still just 122nd in offensive turnover rate. This weakness makes Purdue vulnerable against numerous teams in the NCAA Tournament.

Possible Purdue upset candidates

Marquette

Purdue won a three-point game when these two squads faced off in the Championship Game of the Maui Invitational in November. Marquette shot just 5-17 from three in that game but forced 15 turnovers to cancel out the Boilermakers' offensive rebounding advantage.

Shaka Smart's havoc defense easily leads the Big East in turnover rate and the Golden Eagles are shooting 40% from deep since the start of February. Purdue will not want a rematch with Marquette in March.

TCU

Need evidence of TCU's ceiling? Look no further than a January win over Houston. The Horned Frogs were 8-15 from deep in a one-point win over the nation's number-one team. Defensively, TCU ranks 27th in turnover rate — forming a lethal combo for Purdue in a possible Second Round matchup.

James Madison

While an unlikely scenario, Purdue might not be an overwhelming favorite in a Sweet 16 game against a potential Cinderella team. James Madison established itself as a potential mid-major threat with an opening-night win against Michigan State en route to a 31-win season.

The Dukes are 45th in the country in three-point accuracy and have five guys who have attempted at least 1oo threes on the year. They are also 40th in turnover rate on defense, which has been a thorn in Purdue's side in recent years.