The Boston Red Sox will begin a three-game series with the Houston Astros on Monday at Minute Maid Park. We're in the Long Star State, sharing our MLB odds series and making a Red Sox-Astros prediction and pick for this Monday tilt.
Red Sox-Astros Projected Starters
Tanner Houck vs. Yusei Kukuchi
Tanner Houck (8-8) with a 3.01 ERA
Last Start: Houck was top-notch in his last outing, going 6 2/3 innings, allowing two earned runs, six hits, striking out three, and walking two in a no-decision against the Texas Rangers.
2024 Road Splits: Houck has been slightly worse on the road, going 4-3 with a 3.10 ERA over 10 starts away from Fenway Park.
Yusei Kukuchi (6-9) with a 4.49 ERA
Last Start: Kukuchi had a solid start in his last outing, going 5 2/3 innings, allowing one earned run, three hits, and striking out five in a win over the Tampa Bay Rays.
2024 Home Splits: Kukuchi has been slightly worse, going 2-7 with a 4.66 ERA over 13 combined home starts in Toronto and Houston.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Astros Odds
Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+168)
Moneyline: +106
Houston Astros: +1.5 (-205)
Moneyline: -124
Over: 8 (-115)
Under: 8 (-105)
How to Watch Red Sox vs. Astros
Time: 8:10 PM ET/5:10 PM PT
TV:
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Red Sox Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Red Sox are still fighting for a playoff spot and need to sustain the momentum to make it a possibility. They came into Monday trailing the Kansas City Royals by 3 1/2 games. There is work to do. Therefore, they have to start this series hot and avoid letting down against the Astros. It is also a potential playoff preview and will be a good test of their abilities. It all starts with the offense.
Tyler O'Neill recently returned after the Sox placed him on the injured list on August 2 with a stomach virus and an infection. The Sox would love to have him back in the lineup. Ultimately, he is one of their better players and is critical to the Sox and their ability to content.
Jarren Duran is the leadoff hitter and the guy who gets things going in this lineup. But he has struggled in four games against the Astros, batting just .250 with four hits, one home run, and three RBIs, with two runs. Thus, the Red Sox need him to do more and be the exceptional leadoff hitter he has been all season.
Rafael Devers is the biggest threat in this lineup, showcasing the ability to batter the baseball all over the field. However, he has struggled against Houston, batting .225 with 29 hits, three home runs, 13 RBIs, and 15 runs over 33 games.
Houck will need to avoid making critical mistakes. This lineup is dangerous, and there will be slim margins for error. When Houck finishes, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is 26th in baseball in team ERA. Kenley Jensen has been a lone bright spot, going 3-1 with a 2.66 ERA and 23 saves in 26 chances.
The Red Sox will cover the spread if they can produce some scoring early to build a lead. Then, they need Houck to hit his spots and miss some bats.
Why The Astros Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Astros have done an amazing job of battling back from an early-season slump. Now, they currently lead the American League West and are getting hot for the playoff race. This lineup is as dangerous as ever.
Jose Altuve remains one of the best in the game. Also, he has done well against the Sox, batting .321 with 81 hits, 10 home runs, 29 RBIs, and 49 runs over 61 games. Altuve has had to do well with Kyle Tucker injured. Likewise, others have had to step up.
Yordan Alvarez is a powerhouse. He has also done well against Boston, batting .371 with 26 hits, seven home runs, 21 RBIs, and 16 runs over 20 games in his career. Meanwhile, Alex Bregman continues to batter the baseball. Bregman has also done well against the Sox, batting .304 with 42 hits, six home runs, 20 RBIs, and 29 runs over 37 games.
Kikuchi is the newest guy in Houston and is 2-0 with a 2.20 ERA over three starts for the Astros. But he has struggled against the Red Sox, going 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA with one save over eight games against the Sox. When Kukuchi finishes, he will turn it over to the fifth-best bullpen in baseball. Josh Hader has been the closer and has been excellent, going 5-6 with a 4.48 ERA and 26 saves in 27 chances.
The Astros will cover the spread if they can clobber the baseball and make Houck struggle through every at-bat. Then, they need a good outing from Kikuchi.
Final Red Sox-Astros Prediction & Pick
The Red Sox come into this one with a 56-67 mark against the run line, while the Astros are 64-59. Additionally, the Sox are 35-27 against the run line on the road, while the Astros are 29-32 against the run line at home. The Astros swept the Red Sox in three games at Fenway earlier this season, covering the spread in all three games. The teams split four games at Minute Maid last season. But the key factor for me is Kikuchi and his inability to pitch well against Boston. But since the Red Sox are favored, it's tough to see them winning by more than one run against the Astros. Houston covers.
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Final Red Sox-Astros Prediction & Pick: Houston Astros: +1.5 (-205)
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