UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya will be live from Perth, Australia as we bring you a betting prediction and pick for the opening bout of the Prelims, taking place in the Featherweight (145) Division. Hometown fighter Jack Jenkins will square-off against Brazil’s Herbert Burns. Check out our UFC odds series for our Jenkins-Burns prediction and pick.
Jack Jenkins (12-3) comes into this fight with a 2-1 UFC record since 2023. The Contender Series alum lost most recently when he suffered a dislocated elbow against Chepe Mariscal. Slated to fight Gavin Tucker up until two weeks ago, Jenkins will now pivot opponents and face Herbert Burns as he tries to redeem his last loss. Jenkins stands 5’7″ with a 68-inch reach.
Herbert Burns (11-5) has gone 2-3 inside the UFC since 2020. After a DWCS audition win and two big finishing wins to begin his UFC career, he’s dropped his last three fights to Daniel Pineda, Bill Algeo, and Julio Arce all in the second round. He comes into this one as a massive underdog looking to get back on track with a win. Burns stands 5’9″ with a 73.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 305 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 305 Odds: Jack Jenkins-Herbert Burns Odds
Jack Jenkins: -750
Herbert Burns: +525
Over 1.5 rounds: -110
Under 1.5 rounds: -120
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Why Jack Jenkins Will Win
Jack Jenkins was lucky enough not to have anything break in his arm when he dislocated his elbow during the Chepe Mariscal fight. Still, it was a lengthy rehab and injuries in the octagon always weigh on a fighter’s psyche when returning for their first bout back. Jenkins will have to hurdle one more obstacle as he pivots from a striker in Gavin Tucker to a submission grappler like Herbert Burns. Although Jenkins is the heavy favorite coming into this fight, he’ll have to be mindful of his limbs and avoiding getting tied-up with Burns on the ground.
Still, we’ve seen an extremely well-rounded game from Jack Jenkins thus far and returning to his home crowd of Aussie supporters should give him an added boost of motivation. He fights with an impressive 75% takedown defense rate and while he’s an active wrestler, we may see him open up his striking chops and exploit the matchup. He gives up some reach to Burns, but that shouldn’t deter Jenkins from working his way inside and finding the chin. Look for him to turn on the gas and use his supreme cardio to his advantage.
Why Herbert Burns Will Win
Upon his arrival to the UFC, Herbert Burns immediately looked like a dangerous contender with his submission skills and eventual win by knockout. Since then, however, we’ve seen him come up short in three consecutive bouts, seemingly “folding” in the second round of each fight. He managed to get caught in a crucifix finish by Daniel Pineda and tapped due to exhaustion in the next fight against Bill Algeo. While he looked more determined in his most recent bout, he still fell in the second round and continued the unfortunate trend. This will be a massive test in the resilience of Herbert Burns to overcome the odds and bounce back.
Despite his losses, Burns remains as a world-class jiu jitsu practitioner and he should try to get back to his roots in this fight. If Jenkins chooses to initial the grappling, Burns will be comfortable in reversing positions on the ground and chasing his sneaky submissions from everywhere. He’ll want to find his guard against Jenkins and threaten from there. He also possesses a decent reach advantage and could see some success if his striking has improved up to this point.
Final Jack Jenkins-Herbert Burns Prediction & Pick
We should have a fun fight in this one to open the UFC 305 Prelims as we’ll see yet another hometown fighter grace the stage in Jack Jenkins. While he’s switching opponents on two-weeks notice, he still remains as the heavy betting favorite due to his well-rounded game and advantage in the striking department. Look for him to have a strong showing as he returns from injury and fights like he still has something to prove.
Herbert Burns will be looking to break his three-fight losing streak as he steps into this fight on short notice. He’s had weight issues in the past, so it’ll be interesting to see how he looks on the scales with a short camp behind him. His best chance for the upset here will be to get the fight on the ground and chase his submissions.
We’ll have to side with the big favorite here in Jack Jenkins, simply due to circumstance and fighting on his home soil. Herbert Burns hasn’t shown us much to be confident in backing him here. For added value, look for Jenkins to finish the fight in the second round as Burns seems to have his worst luck during that point of the fight.
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Final Jack Jenkins-Herbert Burns Prediction & Pick: Jack Jenkins (-750); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-110)
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