The San Diego Padres are looking to bounce back after a bad season. We're here to share our MLB odds series, make a Padres' over-under win-total prediction, and make a pick for the 2024 season.
The Padres went 82-80 last season in one of the most disappointing campaigns in baseball. Now, they hope to bounce back. So far, they are 1-1 after the two-game series in South Korea against the Los Angeles Dodgers. As they prep for the other 160 games, we look back at some of the highlights from last season.
Fernando Tatis finished with a batting average of .257, 25 home runs, 78 RBIs, and 91 runs, and an on-base percentage of .322 through 575 at-bats. Meanwhile, Manny Machado finished with a batting average of .258, 30 home runs, 91 RBIs, and 75 runs, and a .319 on-base percentage. Xander Bogaerts hit .285 with 19 home runs, 58 RBIs, and 83 runs. Ultimately, the pitching staff had two stars. Joe Musgrove went 10-3 with a 3.05 ERA over 17 starts. Additionally, Yu Darvish went 8-10 with a 4.56 ERA over 24 starts.
But the Padres saw some major losses in the offseason. Significantly, they traded Juan Soto to the New York Yankees. They also lost Michael Wacha to the Kansas City Royals, Nick Martinez to the Cincinnati Reds, and Blake Snell to the San Francisco Giants through free agency.
The Padres gained Michael King in the trade with the Yankees and Scott Barlow from the Cleveland Guardians. Now, they hope those two can offset the numerous losses they endured.
Here are the Win Total MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres 2024 Win Total Odds
Over 83.5 Wins: -110
Under 83.5 Wins: -110
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Why Padres Will Win 83.5 Games
The Padres lost one of their best power threats. Regardless, they still have three players who can make some noise. Boegarts is still a major threat, with a career 4.5 WAR. Thus, he is still someone who can spray the ball to any part of the field. Tatis is also a major threat at the plate and a 2023 Gold Glove winner. Likewise, expect him always to be a danger at the plate and on the basepaths. Machado is older and more injury-prone. Yet, he can still club home runs. Ha-Seong Kim is a crowd favorite and a Gold Glove threat for his amazing defense. In addition to that, he can also get on base, as he did 35 percent of the time last season. When he did get on base, he was a threat to steal a base at any given moment. Significantly, he snagged 39 bases.
While the rotation did suffer a loss, it still has some of the best. First, there is Musgrove. He can fire fastballs and a variety of other pitches, so expect him to bounce back from his shoulder issues. Darvish has one of the best splitters in the world. Additionally, he has four other pitches to fool hitters with. King will be an excellent addition to the rotation. Remarkably, he has a 95 MPH fastball plus a wicked changeup to pitch further into games.
The Padres will win 84 games because they still have three of baseball's best hitters, along with a guy who can threaten to make a big inning happen anytime. Musgrove, Darvish, and King form a strong rotation.
Why Padres Won't Win 83.5 Games
There is not much depth in the lineup, and Losing Soto will hurt them so much. Yes, they still have three great hitters in the lineup, plus Seong-Kim. But Machado and Tatis have struggled with injuries over the last few seasons. What happens if one or both of them suffer an injury that keeps them out for an extended period of time? When this happens, the Padres have basically no power in the lineup. Bogaerts is exceptional and stays healthy. However, even he goes through slumps and cannot carry a lineup by himself if he has to.
But the biggest concern in San Diego is the rotation. Yes, Musgrove and Darvish are great on paper, and King adds a lot. But you also need to remember that Darvish suffered a down year and was inconsistent for most of the season. The two starters at the back of the rotation, Randy Vasquez and Pedro Avila, are inexperienced. Therefore, there is no telling how good either will be.
The bullpen is also young and inexperienced. Ultimately, there are numerous questions over who will close and who will set up. Barlow is great, but he is only one player and cannot do it all by himself.
The Padres will not win 84 games because they lost a lot of talent. Likewise, the pitching staff has so many holes.
Final Padres Over/Under Win Total Prediction
The Padres started the season 1-1. They scored two runs to start the season and then exploded for 15 in the second game. Thus, expect much more of this inconsistency. The Padres look like a .500 team. That means they will probably finish around 80-83 wins again. Unless someone emerges in their rotation and bullpen, they will struggle a lot. This is not a team with a lineup that is a danger to anyone.
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Final Padres Over/Under Win Total Prediction: Over 83.5 Wins: -110
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