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The St. Louis Cardinals will make a huge decision about their immediate future this winter. They can either keep their roster largely intact and try to reach the ceiling they fell short of in 2024, or the front office can commit to a full rebuild for the first time in ages. If the organization chooses the second option, Sonny Gray is one of several players who will likely be wearing a new uniform next year.
The veteran right-handed starting pitcher was a central part of last offseason's retooling plan, but the higher-ups could be persuaded to quickly move him since the Cards managed only 83 wins in his first year under contract. Gray has a no-trade clause and is due to make $25 million in 2025 and $35 million in 2026, so finding an appealing deal is an unenviable job.
Though, if president of baseball operations John Mozeliak is willing to compromise on either dollars or return value, then trading Gray is certainly feasible. Several teams will view him as a stabilizing presence in their rotation who can help them reach October. His age will naturally be the source of some quibbling at the negotiation table (turned 35 in November), but he should be a coveted asset after recording 203 strikeouts in 166 1/3 innings pitched. Who is the best fit, though?
Gray's underwhelming run with the New York Yankees (4.51 ERA in 41 games) drew him the reputation of melting in a major market. Fair or not, that label will resurface as his name becomes more mired in trade rumors. We will inevitably consider it as well while we sort out his best potential destinations.
Bear in mind, however, that the teams most likely to invest in this aging talent will probably be encircled by fervid fans and substantial pressure.
The Mets have the dough to accommodate a Sonny Gray trade
After lamenting Gray's first foray in the most prominent sports market, I am immediately going to float New York as a landing spot. He is not the same man he was in 2017. Who is, right? The three-time All-Star and former Cy Young runner-up knew no other MLB home besides the Oakland Athletics when he donned the Pinstripes all those years ago.
He has played for three franchises since then, embodying a commanding mix of experience and composure. Gray can handle the heat this time around, specifically as a member of the New York Mets. The lights are not quite as bright, and the ridicule is not as loud in Queens.
His responsibilities would be bigger, however. With Luis Severino gone, and Sean Manaea also expected to cash out in free agency, the Mets might require a co-ace alongside Kodai Senga. Rather than overpay for a regression candidate like Manaea, owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns could determine that it is wiser to spring for an established guy like Gray.
The 2011 first-round draft pick has seemingly procured a steady floor for himself since being traded from the Yankees. His 3.51 career ERA and track record of adapting to a new environment should be attractive selling points to a ballclub that will face reasonably high expectations and reasonably high roster turnover entering 2025.
Gray is a good fit for the Giants
The Farhan Zaidi era was defined by an inability to catch the big fish in free agency. With the World Series legitimacy that Buster Posey brings to the front office, the San Francisco Giants must establish themselves as an undeniable destination to available star players. They cannot be snubbed by Gray should a potential trade package arise.
Blake Snell is now pitching elsewhere in the division, which should motivate Posey to aggressively pursue another high-quality hurler before winter's end. The franchise's identity is tied to its starting rotation, something the three-time champion will want to emphasize since he helped formulate that exact blueprint during the 2010s. Gray may not be a perfect replacement for Snell, but he is an ideal option to pair next to fellow righty Logan Webb at the top of the staff.
Furthermore, the Tennessee native shared some good times with San Francisco's manager. Bob Melvin served as Gray's skipper in Oakland for the first four and a half years of his MLB career; ergo, there might be a special bond that exists between the two men. Their prior history could be a boon to the Giants' clubhouse, as Gray is living proof of the success the Melvin model can achieve.
The 12-year pitcher has been part of a Bay Area franchise that has experienced unforeseen success before, so how appropriate would it be for him to contribute to a San Francisco resurgence when national attention is fixed elsewhere in the NL West?
The Blue Jays might get antsy
Much like the Giants, the Blue Jays occasionally wind up being losers in a superstar sweepstakes. They failed to land Shohei Ohtani last year (pun intended) and are not anticipated to be the victorious suitors in the Juan Soto pursuit this winter. A failure to sign or acquire a premium talent will compel fans to revisit the club's current infrastructure, and that is not a good thing for ownership.
Toronto's surprising allegiance to both general manager Ross Atkins and skipper John Schneider is much tougher to comprehend if significant personnel upgrades are not made. The Jays' most glaring issue in the pitching staff was the bullpen (second-worst ERA in MLB), but the starting rotation is undeniably in need of some sprucing up, too.
Considering that 35-year-old Chris Bassitt and 33-year-old Kevin Gausman will both celebrate birthdays in early 2025, it may be ill-advised to obtain the rights to the aging Sonny Gray. Again, though, there is an unbearable sense of urgency permeating the Rogers Centre. If the front office opts to hang onto pillars Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, it is reasonable to surmise a proactive offseason.
The Blue Jays will presumably feel restless if they miss out on Soto, leading Atkins to possibly explore his options in the trade market. Committing to the aforementioned second-generation stars would incentivize the organization to maximize its short-term contention window, or rather re-open it. Gray can oblige the Toronto brass by greatly lengthening its rotation. An additional starter who can reach 160 innings will carry significant weight during the long MLB campaign.
His hypothetical arrival could also serve as the mandatory gesture the city demands in order to feel somewhat upbeat about the Blue Jays' immediate prospects.
The Rangers may want to reload for 2025
We are going to stay in the American League for the conclusion of this list and highlight a team that is a more logical trade partner for the Cardinals than most people might think. The Texas Rangers are only 13 months removed from winning their first World Series championship. That type of long-awaited breakthrough could convince some owners to revel in the allotted grace period for a bit, but Ray Davis did not assemble this roster to be a one-hit wonder.
With Corey Seager and Marcus Semien each locked up for the next several years, Texas' reasonable course of action is to launch itself back into the playoff picture. Such an objective is not feasible until president of baseball ops Chris Young replenishes the starting staff.
Future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer, two-time All-Star Nathan Eovaldi and underrated southpaw Andrew Heaney are all free agents and Jacob deGrom is a constant injury risk. Bruce Bochy is clamoring for some stability in the top part of his rotation. Gray, whose roots are in the South, could be the adhesive that allows the Rangers to piece together a respectable unit on the mound.
Fans have seen what can happen when this organization hunts for pitching. One trustworthy arm could ensure that 2023 represents more than just a nice story for Arlington.
Wherever Sonny Gray ends up in 2025, he better make it count. The accomplished starter does not have much time left to be a part of something truly special before he hangs up his cleats for good.
