When the Phoenix Suns made the NBA Finals in 2021, it appeared as if they were going to rule over the Western Conference for years to come. Despite falling short of winning a title with Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks defeating them in six games, the Suns' championship window was wide open with Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson and veteran point guard Chris Paul leading the way.
This group failed to make it back to the NBA Finals in 2022, losing in the Western Conference Semifinals in hideous fashion to the Dallas Mavericks, then drama began to form within the organization. Allegations of racism and misogyny resulted in owner Robert Sarver selling the team, veteran forward Jae Crowder asked for a trade in the offseason and former top pick Deandre Ayton signed an offer sheet with the Indiana Pacers only to re-join the Suns due to the fact that they matched his offer sheet as a restricted free agent.
A lot of tension surrounded Phoenix entering the 2022-23 season. When things did not look great with a 30-27 record in the middle of the year, new Suns owner Mat Ishbia pulled off what many thought was an impossible trade by acquiring 13-time All-Star and two-time Finals MVP Kevin Durant from the Brooklyn Nets. This trade though came at a major price, as the Suns were forced to give up Crowder, Bridges, Johnson and four unprotected first-round picks, plus a first-round pick swap.
In eight regular-season games with Durant, the Suns went 8-0, but it was very clear to see that their secondary unit was severely weakened. The pairing of Durant and Booker looked like the deadliest offensive duo in the entire league, yet this did not necessarily matter in the playoffs. After defeating a Los Angeles Clippers team that did not have a healthy Paul George nor Kawhi Leonard in the first round of the playoffs, the Suns ran into a problem against the top-seeded Denver Nuggets.
Depth and philosophy took down the Suns, a team many picked to reach the NBA Finals in the Western Conference, as the Nuggets were just simply the better team. Instead of attempting to rush their championship equation in a single season like Phoenix, Denver was prepared for this moment. Their core group of Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. have been through a lot together over the years and look ready to finally make that title run. While both Durant and Booker were fantastic for the vast majority of this series, the Nuggets owned a superior edge when it came to secondary production.
The absence of Chris Paul for four games negatively affected the Suns, as did Deandre Ayton's lack of intensity against Denver. Overall, the Suns got beat as an organization and now enter an offseason in which their championship window is suddenly beginning to close. Paul is now 38 years old, Ayton's future remains a major question mark and new owner Mat Ishbia is prepared to take his organization in a new direction, already making a massive decision by firing head coach Monty Williams.
Coaching Carousel: Who's next after Monty Williams?
The Suns have won 160 total games since the start of the 2020-21 season, the most games won in the NBA over the last three season. They reached the 2021 NBA Finals, as mentioned previously, and Williams coached the team to a playoff series win in three consecutive years, something the organization had not done since 2007.
Ishbia wanted to make a change on the bench to build the team in his image, and both Booker and Durant were involved in this process as well. Williams, one of the most respected coaches in the entire league, got the short end of the stick in Phoenix after the team was blown out in an elimination game in back-to-back seasons.
Replacing Williams will be difficult for the Suns to do simply because of the culture and standard he set in Phoenix. The Suns have put themselves on a very tight timeline to compete for a championship with Durant's arrival this season, so any coach interviewing for this position knows what kind of situation they are signing up for. Ishbia will be looking to have someone lead the team to their first-ever title and quite a few notable names have already been mentioned for this job.
The Suns have narrowed their coaching search down after originally seeking permission to interview several assistant coaches around the league such as Sacramento Kings assistant Jordi Fernandez, Milwaukee Bucks assistant Charles Lee and Memphis Grizzlies assistant Darko Rajakovic. Fernandez is among the finalists for the position, as is current assistant coach Kevin Young.
Already familiar with the players and organization, Young is a strong candidate to become the next head coach of the Suns, especially since he is said to have the backing of “many Suns players.” It would come as a shock to nobody if Phoenix kept things in-house and appointed Young as their next head coach.
Former Philadelphia 76ers head coach Doc Rivers, former Toronto Raptors head coach Nick Nurse and former Los Angeles Lakers head coach Frank Vogel are also among the list of finalists for the position, according to The Athletic's Shams Charania. Rivers and Nurse were both relieved of their coaching duties this year, while Vogel was fired by the Lakers at the conclusion of the 2021-22 season.
The new coach of the franchise will face challenges in terms of what this roster will look like. Durant and Booker are the two focal points of the organization, but whether or not Ayton will still remain on the roster during the 2023-24 season factors into any potential coach's decision to join this team, as does Paul's future.
Trade rumors surrounding Ayton, Paul
Deandre Ayton's future with the Suns has been in question ever since last season when he signed an offer sheet with the Indiana Pacers as a restricted free agent. While he was prepared to leave Phoenix and become a focal point for the Pacers, the Suns quickly matched Indiana's four-year, nearly $133 million offer sheet.
Frustrations between Ayton and the Suns have been noticeable ever since the former top pick was benched in the 2022 playoffs and then after the big man had zero communication with Monty Williams throughout the offseason. Things appeared to be smoothed over once this season began, but there were still inklings that the Suns center wanted no part of the organization anymore.
After struggling in the postseason once again, rumors surrounding Ayton's future are surfacing again, making it seem like a divorce is the right move for both parties. With Durant and Booker controlling things in Phoenix, Ayton will never hold the role that he is seeking and will never be more than a secondary thought for the team offensively. He has played well in his role as a pick-and-roll screener, but Ishbia is looking to make his team the best in the league in order to win a title right now. Figuring out the logistics with Ayton, who is frustrated with his role, does not necessarily fit with this championship mindset.
Cutting ties with Ayton presents its own challenges, as Phoenix lacks frontcourt depth already and his contract worth about $102 million over the next three seasons is not the easiest to move. With the new financial rules coming into effect with the Collective Bargaining Agreement, teams are going to be a lot more cognizant of how they allocate their funds. Guaranteeing this kind of money to a center that has shown weaknesses through the years is not at the top of any team's priority list right now.
There is also the problem of not many teams looking for a center entering the offseason. With Ayton not having much of a perimeter game, his value has a cap in many people's eyes. The Dallas Mavericks have been brought up as a potential landing spot for Ayton given that they need more talent and don't have an impactful frontcourt player on their roster, but the Suns would likely prefer to send him to an Eastern Conference team instead.
The Chicago Bulls may be interested if they were to part ways with former All-Star Nikola Vucevic, and it is possible a team like the Charlotte Hornets could also show interest in Ayton. The Atlanta Hawks will look to make some moves in the offseason in order to increase their chances of contending in the postseason, but they have Clint Capela on their roster and still owe him over $42 million over the next two years. Maybe they would be willing to move Capela to get Ayton, but how much better would that actually make the Hawks?
Trading Ayton is a lot easier said than done, yet he is still the likely odd man out if the Suns had to choose between him and Chris Paul. Having Paul on the floor in the playoffs has been a struggle for the Suns recently, as his overall production has declined since he arrived in 2020. This past season, Paul put up just 13.9 points per game, the lowest of his career, but he still managed to average 8.9 assists per game over the course of the year.
Figuring out a trade involving Paul would be almost impossible for the Suns unless they were willing to attach a lot of assets in a deal to a team that would take on his salary. The key question with the veteran guard revolves around his contract for the 2023-24 season, as it is only partially-guaranteed for $15.8 million. In what could be a cost-saving move, Phoenix may wind up waiving Paul in order to sign him at a more team-friendly price, especially with Durant and Booker making upwards of $100 million combined next season.
The Suns could look to deal both Ayton and Paul in the offseason, but it should be much easier for them to get a deal done involving the center than the veteran point guard.
Suns facing financial hardships
A team like the Suns is going to be heavily influenced by some of these new rules coming into effect with the new CBA.
As of right now, including the contracts of Ayton and Paul, the Suns' payroll for next season already exceeds $160 million. They are well above the salary cap of $134 million for the 2023-24 season and will be above the $162 million tax level set for next season. Having to deal with luxury taxes moving forward is going to be a pain for every single franchise in this league, as the CBA's new stipulations will penalize teams who consistently exceed these cap numbers.
There is now a second tax apron that should teams cross, they will lose their mid-level exception, which is utilized all the time in free agency, and these teams will also not be allowed to sign anyone on the buyout market. Looking at last offseason, different organizations utilized their mid-level exception to sign players such as Donte DiVincenzo (Golden State Warriors), Malik Monk (Sacramento Kings), Kyle Anderson (Minnesota Timberwolves) and P.J. Tucker (Philadelphia 76ers).
Teams crossing this second tax apron also won't be able to utilize previous year's traded player exceptions, they won't be able to deal cash considerations in trades with rival organizations and they will be unable to trade for players on current deals by signing and trading one of their own players in the offseason.
Just about $15 million below the second tax apron right now, the Suns do not have much wiggle room, especially since they only have six players with guaranteed money on their roster for next season. The contracts of Chris Paul and Cameron Payne can be worked out given that they hold partially-guaranteed clauses, but Phoenix is still responsible for paying both of these guards to an extent. Ish Wainright also has a cheap team option worth just under $2 million.
By trading for Durant this season, the Suns put themselves in a massive hole from a depth perspective, as they no longer have reliable secondary options on their roster. This front office will have to completely reconstruct the team around their superstars. As of right now, the only contracts Phoenix can really offer are minimum deals, leaving them with very little options on who to potentially sign this offseason.
Pending free agent decisions
Expanding their roster and overall depth by trading either Ayton or Paul is one option for the Suns entering the offseason, but a vast majority of their roster is entering free agency. As mentioned previously, Paul and Payne could wind up becoming unrestricted free agents should Phoenix not guarantee their contracts, plus Torrey Craig, Damion Lee, Josh Okogie, T.J. Warren, Jock Landale, Terrence Ross, Bismack Biyombo and Darius Bazley will all be free agents.
Out of all of these players, Craig, Landale and Okogie proved to be the most impactful secondary talents for the Suns this season. With Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson being dealt to Brooklyn at the trade deadline, the Suns were left thin on the wing. Craig stepped into the starting unit and really did a solid job playing his role as a 3-and-D player who could aid in rebounding.
The same can be said about Okogie, who really settled in with Phoenix and was awarded the team's hustle award at the end of the season. He shot a career-high 33.5 percent from three-point range during the regular season and embraced his role as an energy guy for this team in or out of the starting rotation.
As for Landale, he emerged as Ayton's backup late in the season and was a player the Suns turned to in the Western Conference Semifinals against Denver. Regardless of whether they look to deal Ayton in the offseason, Phoenix will likely want to retain Landale.
The challenge looking at free agency for the Suns is that they have seven players “under contract” for next season counting the partial guarantees of Paul and Payne, plus the team option for Wainright. Their total payroll right there exceeds $160 million, and that is just half a roster. The remaining roster spots Phoenix has can really only be filled out by minimum contract type of players, which presents president of basketball operations and general manager James Jones with issues trying to formulate a championship-level supporting cast.
No matter who is on this roster to begin the 2023-24 season and no matter who the head coach is, Durant and Booker will remain the focal points and everything will flow through them on the offensive end of the floor. Phoenix is all in at this point in terms of contending for a title. They don't have much draft capital, they don't have any cap space and there are very little moves they can make to drastically improve their roster.
The Suns had a really strong core with Booker, Paul, Ayton, Bridges and Johnson. That group made the 2021 NBA Finals and looked to be a powerhouse in the Western Conference for many years to come. Having the chance to trade for Durant is an opportunity that comes once in a blue moon, so you cannot fault Phoenix for pulling the trigger on said trade.
Unless they win a championship before the conclusion of Durant's contract in 2026 though, everything this franchise has achieved through the years will be for nothing. How Phoenix approaches the offseason with their coaching search and roster is critical to their potential success over the next decade.
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