When Lincoln Riley unceremoniously decided to up and leave Oklahoma for USC a couple of years ago, it sent shockwaves throughout the college football world. It left fans in Norman, OK, with detestation, while those in Los Angeles reveled in elation. If you were to ask both now, those sentiments might be reversed.
Lincoln Riley's Year 2 for USC football has been a disaster
Riley's Year 2 didn't exactly pan out the way most had hoped or thought it would by any stretch. After USC football finished with an 11-3 season last year, seven games better than the previous season and their best since 2017, they're now looking at an eight-win season at best with a lower-tier bowl game victory. A bowl game that could very well be without star quarterback Caleb Williams.
As expected, the Trojans got really good, really fast in Riley's first year, mostly because of transfer portal additions like Williams, who ended up winning the Heisman Trophy. Year 1 was a complete and utter turnaround from where the program had been under former head coach Clay Helton, going as far as making the Pac-12 Championship Game. But as quickly as things changed for the better, they likewise changed for the worst in just one season.
USC football began this year as the preseason No. 6 team in the country, with many believing, at worst, they would finish second in the Pac-12, and others believing they would win the conference and get into the top-4 of the College Football Playoff. They came into the season with a top-10 talent roster, a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, and transfer portal additions to boost the defense. This was the year USC football was back. Until it wasn't.
USC football proved to be overrated in 2023
Riley got the Trojans to 6-0, yet by the third game against a much worse Arizona State team, there were signs that the team could have some issues, which in turn kept dropping them lower in the AP poll by the week, all the way down to No. 9 without losing. By the next game against Deion Sanders' Colorado team, the signs persisted. USC ended the first half up 34-14, but at the end of regulation, the final score ended up being 48-41. If not for the Buffaloes' clock mismanagement, it could have been worse — Colorado simply ran out of time to have an opportunity to tie it up.
What many didn't know at the time by the next week was that USC would be facing a much-improved Arizona team that took them to three overtimes, with the Wildcats failing a two-point conversion in the end to decide the game. But those three weeks' worth of games for USC football were proof that this year's team had some major issues, especially defensively, giving up 110 points over that stretch. And it all came to a head against Notre Dame in South Bend the following week.
Not only was the defense bad, but also Riley couldn't rely on Williams to bail them out of their deficiencies as a team against the Fighting Irish. Williams had the worst game of his career, throwing for under 200 yards and three interceptions, and was sacked six times, thanks in part to an offensive line that did him no favors.
It ended up being back-to-back losses for USC, with the defense yet against allowing a subpar offense in Utah and backup quarterback Bryson Barnes to make a game-winning drive that led to a field goal to win it by two in the end. USC followed that up with a one-point win over a Cal team that currently still needs one win to make a bowl game.
Somehow, the CFP committee was merciful enough to keep USC football ranked No. 20 to face No. 5 Washington, who put up 572 yards of total offense on them to win a shootout. Later, convincing losses to Oregon and UCLA would make it three consecutive games without a win. The team had all but given up.
Lincoln Riley has yet to figure out how to fix glaring issues with USC football
Not that 7-5 is a great season, especially in comparison to finishing with 11 wins the year before, but this team doesn't even feel like it's bowl eligible. That's probably because they got lucky against Arizona and Cal. But how do you judge this team at this point? This team was supposed to be much improved through recruiting and transfer additions (No. 7 overall class, per 247 Sports), coupled with the talent that got them to the conference title game last season. But now it has former head coaches turned pundits like Dan Mullen asking if Riley should be the coach in L.A. on the hot seat.
After Riley's Year 2, he is 17-5 overall, the same over a 22-game span that Helton was. But what's really concerning is that Riley moves to 2-5 versus ranked opponents, with not a single win over one this season, being outscored by an average of 42.5 to 30.2 against them.
This was perhaps the best year of competition in the Pac-12, but next year, after the conference folds and USC moves to the Big Ten, the competition only gets greater. That's not even counting their out-of-conference season opener against LSU in Las Vegas at Allegiant Stadium or season ender against Notre Dame at home. They have notable conference games against Michigan, Washington, and UCLA on the road, while hosting Wisconsin, Penn State, and Nebraska.
That makes next season a pivotal year for Riley and USC football. With the expanded playoff, there will definitely be more opportunities, although there will be greater competition throughout the regular season now. Not to mention Riley will more than likely be having to find a new starting quarterback with Williams probably bolting for the NFL, plus a new defensive coordinator to replace Alex Grinch in the offseason.
Perhaps it's unfair to put Riley on the hot seat after just two seasons. But the full-on regression of this season was alarming, to say the least. And what's worse is that these are problems that have persisted with Riley as a head coach since he took over Oklahoma back in 2017, where only one season did he have a top-30 defense, where the rest were ranked 60th or worse. Couple that now with a lack of recruiting the state of California successfully, and the seat is definitely warm.
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