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The Washington Nationals look to continue their improvement in the 2025 season. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Washington Nationals over/under win total prediction and pick.
The 2024 season saw the Nationals start taking steps towards returning to the playoffs. They spend much of the first half of the season near the .500 mark, but a rough second half would bring them to 71-91 on the year. It was their second straight year they were 71-91 for the season. Still, that is tied for their best record since winning the World Series in 2019. Further, the team was young, with an average batter age of just 26.4 years old. That was the youngest the Nationals have been at the plate since moving to Washington in 2005. Now, they will look to improve in 2024 and take another step to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2019.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: 2025 Win Total Odds
Over 70.5 Wins: -118
Under 70.5 Wins: -108
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Why You Should Bet the Over
The Washington Nationals have already seen growth from their young core, and they could continue that trajectory. That starts with CJ Abrams. Abrams was an all-star last year for the first time. After a pedestrian rookie year, Abrams broke onto the scene in 2023 with a 3.4 WAR and an OPS+ of 96. He continued with his 3.4 WAR last year but moved his OPS+ to 110 while also hitting more home runs and driving in more runs. Joining him in a young core is Luis Garcia Jr. Garcia just finished his fifth year in the bigs but has not played full years in all of them. Still, he posted 18 home runs, 70 RBIs, and hit .282 last year, all the best numbers of his career. Further, Abrams had a 2.2 WAR just last year, a major step forward considering his career WAR going into the year was just 1.0.
Then there is James Wood, who just finished his first season with the Nationals. Wood played in just 79 games last year and hit .264, with nine home runs, 41 RBIs, and a 122 OPS+. Wood was also fourth in the NL after July 1st in hits with exit velocity over 105 MPH. ZiPS projections see improvement for Wood this year, and if he can move towards the 100 RBI marker, he will be a major part of this young Nationals core.
Another major part of the young offense will be Dylan Crews. Crews played in just 31 games last year but still had a 0.6 WAR, with three home runs and eight RBIs. If Crews can continue his upward trajectory, the Nationals could have five players with OPS+ numbers over 100, giving a solid start to the order.
Why You Should Bet the Under
Pitching could be a major issue for the Nationals this year. Patrick Corbin is gone, which is not a huge loss considering how he has pitched over his last few years. MacKenzie Fore is expected to lead the rotation for the Nationals. He struggled last year after a solid 2-23. Gore was 10-12 last year, with a 3.90 ERA. Still, his WAR dropped from 2.0 to 0.8 last year, while his WHIP went up and his strikeouts per nine innings went down.
Behind Fore will be Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker. Irvin was 10-14 last year and has a 4.41 ERA. While the ERA improved from his 2023 campaign, and he did limit his walks better, his advance metrics largely remained unchanged, showing little to no improvement. Meanwhile, Mitchell Parker was 7-10 in his first season. He did have a 0.6 WAR, but also regressed some during the season.
There is also a heavy reliance on young players in this lineup. Alex Call will be one of the older bats in the lineup, and he is just 30 years old. If the young players do not progress, there could be a major step back for the Nationals this year.
Final Nationals Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
The Nationals have cleared this mark each of the last two years. They were well on pace to get near 80 wins last year until a late July into early August slump pulled them off the pace, and the Nationals chose to give experience to younger players. Now, those younger players have some experience and will look to take a step forward. Further, removing Patrick Corbin from the rotation should help. He has made 31 or more starts each of the last four years but has a combined 31 wins, with 63 losses and a combined WAR of negative four in that time. Barring major stepbacks from the young bat and no improvement from the pitching, the Nationals should be at least a 71-win team.
Final Nationals Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 70.5 Wins (-118)
